The disturbance moving through the central Caribbean this morning – dubbed Invest 95L – is slowly organizing and will likely become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it heads toward Jamaica, Central America, and the Yucatán Peninsula this week.
Conventional satellite as well as overnight radar scans from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) satellite instrument indicate 95L’s circulation, though still broad, is becoming better defined.
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Shower activity in the area remains disorganized for now but gradual development is expected today and tomorrow. The environment ahead isn’t especially ripe – with both modest wind shear and dry air nearby – but it won’t take much for a tropical depression to form. Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the disturbance throughout the day on Sunday.
Regardless of development, 95L will be primarily a rainmaker for parts of the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the system will steer it westward toward Jamaica by late Monday and Tuesday and then towards Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala by Wednesday into Thursday. 95L poses no threat to Florida or the mainland U.S.
