The diffuse Tropical Disturbance in the Gulf is drifting toward the northern Gulf coast. Hostile upper-level winds are blowing across the system, so no short-term development is expected. There is a slight chance it could organize into a tropical depression before it reaches the coast, but even that doesn’t seem likely.
There is a large blob of tropical moisture accompanying the system, mostly on the north and east side. This will produce steady heavy rain over the Florida Panhandle and across North Florida beginning tomorrow and continuing into Thursday. Some of the moisture will spread across South Florida as well, but the concentration will be farther north.
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Thankfully, it now appears that the Hurricane Ida disaster zone will not be impacted by heavy rain from the tropical disturbance. Unfortunately, southeast Louisiana is still being plagued by regular downpours, and even some local flooding, although that weather is from a different system. Ironically, after the disturbance moves by to the east, a cold front should move through the New Orleans area, allowing them to dry out.
After the disturbance crosses Florida and moves into the Atlantic, it has a better chance of developing into a depression or storm if it stays separate from the cold front that’s on its heels. In any case, it will move out to sea.
Out in the Atlantic, giant Hurricane Larry shows signs of a little weakening, but it’s still a formidable storm. Larry’s center of circulation is on track to pass east of Bermuda, although the outer bands will impact the island. Some tropical-storm force winds seem likely. Larry should make its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday.
The latest computer forecast models indicate that Larry might directly impact Atlantic Canada late in the week.
Dangerous surf and rip currents energized by Hurricane Larry will impact all of the Atlantic beaches in the U.S. and the Caribbean. Be especially careful in the ocean until all that energy has dissipated.
Elsewhere, nothing seems to be brewing as we count down to the statistical peak of the season coming on Friday.