Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal at 12N16W and continues southwestward to 02N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02N23W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the equator north to 04N and east of 20W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the west Atlantic extends a ridge across the Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail across the Gulf waters, with 4-6 ft seas. E winds in the Straits of Florida are moderate to fresh. Locally fresh winds are also noted along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters the this weekend into early next week supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period due to prevalent high pressure NE of the area.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough passes through the E Caribbean waters, from near Anguilla to Caracas, Venezuela. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the Caribbean waters with seas of 3-6 ft. In the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, NE winds are pulsing to fresh speeds.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong trade winds offshore Colombia through early Sat. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 1029 mb high pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores and its associated ridge. The ridge is weakened by a pair of surface troughs located just NNE of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of these troughs. Fresh NE winds are north of 27N between 60W and 66W. Seas peak to 8 ft in these winds. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Atlantic and a surface trough to the N of Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney