The tropics will stay quiet through the holiday weekend, as is normally the case in early July. Fewer than one-fifth of the hurricane seasons in the record book – going back to 1851 – show a storm developing this time of year.
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Further, hardly ever has a tropical system threatened South Florida during the first 10 days of July. Only one track in the official record crossed the southern part of the state, and that was a weak tropical storm in 1878.
We are in between the time when cold fronts and other non-tropical systems trigger development in our part of the ocean in June, and the real tropical season when storms develop in the eastern Atlantic beginning in August, generally speaking.
One of those non-tropical systems might evolve into a somewhat-tropical system off the Southeast or northern Gulf coast over the next several days. A broad low-pressure area is going to set up along the Gulf coast beginning over the weekend. A parade of impulses will emanate from that low. There is a chance that a quasi-tropical system could evolve from that process over or close to the coastline. The odds aren’t high, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
The low-pressure area over the Southeast will draw more moisture over South Florida, which will increase the likelihood of heat-busting afternoon thunderstorms over the weekend and into next week. The weather pattern is still a hot one, but the stretch of rain-free upper 90s should be over for a now.
Otherwise in the tropics, Saharan Dust and unfavorable upper winds are keeping things quiet. A well-defined tropical disturbance moved off of Africa yesterday, but it is too far south to be a threat, and is not expected to develop.