Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 21/0000 UTC. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo- France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W, then curves southwestward to 02N23W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 02N23W to around 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 180 nm N of the ITCZ west of 33W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the monsoon trough off the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough has sagged a bit farther south early this morning and associated convection has now moved S and W of the far SW Caribbean.

Gulf Of America

A strong ridge of high pressure extends southwestward from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found at the northeastern Gulf. Elsewhere, mainly fresh to strong E winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail, with the highest winds over the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered offshore the SE United States and low pressure over Texas will lead to fresh to strong SE winds over much of the Gulf early this week, along with moderate to rough seas. Conditions will start to improve Tue as the gradient weakens, but pulses of strong SE winds will depart the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly as a diurnal trough moves into the waters.

Caribbean Sea

Convection associated with the tail of a surface trough extending through the northern Leeward Islands has diminished early this morning. A 1030 mb Bermuda High sustains trade winds across much of the basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are seen at the eastern basin. Strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are evident in the central basin and near the Windward Passage. Mainly fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure N of the region will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through Mon night before the high weakens and winds diminish diminishing through the middle of the week. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages, before gradually subside through the middle of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information about gale winds at the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1021 mb low pressure near 31N57W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection noted within 120 nm E of the trough. The tight pressure gradient between these features and the Bermuda high is resulting in fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft between 55W and 70W, as well as S of the Bahamas/25N. To the N of 25N and W of 70W, Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. Farther east, widespread fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 9 prevail over much of the central and eastern tropical and subtropical waters, as they are dominated by flow from a strong high pressure centered N of the region near The Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas into Mon for Atlantic waters E of 70W, as well as S of 25W, including the the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The trough will weaken by Tue, leading to improving conditions into the middle of the week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik