Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC.

Special Features

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event

Large NW swell covers the Atlantic Ocean, with rough seas to very rough seas, from 20N northward from 40W eastward. This swell will shift toward the south and toward the southeast during the rest of the day today. The forecast is for the swell to start to subside gradually by Saturday morning.

Mostly rough seas are elsewhere from 60W eastward. It is possible that some exceptions in the area that is from 60W eastward may consists of moderate seas to rough seas. Rough seas also are to the north of the line that runs from the NW Bahamas beyond 31N60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning

Gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, are forecast to start tonight, from 12N southward between 74W and 75W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. This scenario will repeat itself, for tonight, for Saturday night, and for Sunday night. Expect also: strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea, during the daylight hours of today, Saturday, and Sunday.

Moderate seas cover the Caribbean Sea elsewhere from 18N southward from 80W eastward. Slight seas are from 80W westward. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 18N southward from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 70W eastward.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone close to 08N13W, to 03N20W, to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W, to 01N32W, to 02N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 02N to 07N between 07W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

Gulf Of America

Strong NE winds are from 21N to 25N between 89W and 93W. Fresh to strong NE winds cover the remainder of the area. A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to the coast of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough continues from the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and curving to 22N95W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N southward from 95W eastward. Rough seas are in the Straits of Florida, leading into the south central sections, and covering the SW quadrant of the Gulf. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area.

Near gale force winds off Veracruz will diminish to fresh speeds through Sat. A trough will develop over the west-central and SW Gulf today and linger through Sat night while weakening. Low pressure will develop along the trough on Sat near South Texas, track NE through early Sun night, then E to SE toward the central or southern Florida during Mon. A frontal boundary will trail from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to strong winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high pressure will settle over the central Gulf Tue and Tue night in the wake of this system.

Caribbean Sea

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the nighttime gale-force winds that are forecast for the next few days, in the coastal waters of Colombia. Other information about the wind speeds and the sea heights for the remainder of the Caribbean Sea also is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to the coast of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough continues from the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and curving to 22N95W.

A surface trough curves through 22N72W in the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 16N74W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are: 0.25 in San Juan in Puerto Rico;, and 0.05 in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Sat night. A cold front front over the NW Caribbean will stall and gradually dissipate by this weekend. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage this evening through early Sun. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat, subsiding afterward.

, ATLANTIC OCEAN, Corrected

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Significant Swell Event, and for information about the sea heights for the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N60W 26N70W, and beyond 22N80W in Cuba. Strong and faster northerly winds are from 27N80W 28N70W 30N62W northward. Strong SW winds are within 60 nm to the east of the cold front from 27N northward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are: 0.09 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are between 28N13W 25N41W 21N60W and 01N51W 02N36W 10N17W. Strong and faster S to SW winds in general are from 27N northward between 40W and 63W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N23W to 28N40W. The front is dissipating cold front from 28N40W to 28N38W. A surface trough continues from 28N38W, to 26N50W 26N57W.

A cold front extends from near 31N60W southwestward to 26N71W and to central Cuba. The front will weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 24N60W, continuing as a stationary front to Haiti Sat night and dissipating soon afterward. Its remnant trough will drift back west toward the southeastern Bahamas through Mon while dissipating. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to fresh to strong northeast winds south of 25N, including the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank tonight into Sat night. Conditions improve Sun into early Mon. Later during Mon, low pressure from the Gulf will approach central or southern Florida, and quickly track NE through late Tue dragging a frontal boundary across the western part of the area. Fresh to near gale strong southwest winds are expected ahead of the low pressure and frontal boundary along with building seas.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Ja