Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1018 mb low is analyzed near 26N97W. This low is expected to intensify and become a frontal system while gradually moving east- southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico today. N to NE winds north of the low at the northwestern Gulf are already reaching gale- force strength over the NW Gulf. As this low and cold front push further eastward, gale NW to NE winds with gusts to storm-force will spread to the central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche by this evening. Seas under the strongest winds are going to peak at 18 to 23 ft, mainly over the Bay of Campeche. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin due to the expansive area of gale-force winds and a large area of very rough to high seas in the area.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A new cold front is forecast to form across the southeastern U.S. On today, and then move eastward into the western Atlantic this afternoon. Anticipate NW to N winds behind this front to reach strong to gale-force by this evening off the coast of northeastern Florida and southern Georgia. These winds will shift eastward along with the cold front across the western Atlantic through Wednesday morning. Seas under the strongest winds are going to peak between 12 and 14 ft.

For more details on both Gale Warnings, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N19W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 07N between 06W and 20W. Similar convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 24W-43W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please refer to the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in effect.

A low pressure has developed over the NW Gulf, centered near 26N97W. A surface trough extends from the low to 20N95W. Strong SW winds at mid levels are streaming thick cirrus across the northern half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen across the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NW to S to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present at the rest of the Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the low will track southeastward through Wed, dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high pressure behind the front will likely is induce strong gales and expanding across much of the northern and western Gulf this afternoon through early Wed, with the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the west and central Gulf. The front is forecast to exit the basin by Wed morning with winds diminishing in the afternoon hours. Looking ahead, a surface trough is forecast to develop along the E Mexican offshore waters by Thu evening with strong winds possibly reaching gale- force by Fri morning. Gales off Veracruz will diminish by Fri evening.

Caribbean Sea

A frontal boundary extends across the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted near the front over the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras. Strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are occurring at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are seen over the north-central and eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail across the eastern half of the basin through midweek. Winds could reach near-gale speeds in the vicinity of the N coast of Colombia each night through the end of the week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Wed, bringing near-gale force NW winds and rough seas to the area. These conditions will diminish quickly as the front weakens on Wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in effect.

A cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N66W to 24N81W. To the east, another cold front curves southwestward from 31N14W to 20N35W, then continues westward as a shear line to 18N52W. A 1031 mb high near 32N47W is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 24N between 55W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther east, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and 8 to 14 ft seas in residual moderate to large northerly swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 24N between 35N/55W and the Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas, moderate to strong ENE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the W Atlantic front will merge with the next one, which is expected to move off the SE U.S. Coast Tue evening. The new front will reach from near 31N72W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning, from 31N61W to the southern Bahamas Thu morning where it will stall and weaken quickly through Thu evening. This front will be followed by gale-force north winds and rough seas north of 24N and W of about 70W through midday Wed. In the long term, low pressure is expected to develop offshore the SE U.S. Thu into Thu evening, with a trailing cold front reaching to central Cuba. The low is expected to move well north of the area Fri, with the cold front reaching from near 31N70W to eastern Cuba by Fri evening, and from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat morning. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected in the wake of tho front.

Posted 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era