The Atlantic will remain mostly quiet to round out the work week. From the Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean Sea – the areas we typically look to in June for potential development – skies are mostly clear Thursday morning.

The tropical disturbance pushing through the northeastern Caribbean islands today is the only system that exists at the moment, and it has been shredded by strong upper level winds. The thunderstorms have not been able to organize enough for it to be designated a tropical depression or tropical storm. But, there are gusty squalls in the broad circulation, so people on those islands will know a disturbance is coming by. Out in the Atlantic east of Bermuda, a non-tropical disturbance is forecast to develop a few days from now. But when a system has formed, the favored track has been over or near Florida.

PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. The disturbance in the Atlantic has developed into a tropical depression, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say it is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Wednesday night. If that happens, it will be Tropical Storm Josephine and become the earliest J storm in history. Located about 1,450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, whats now being called Tropical Depression Eleven has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as it moves west at 16 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, the Miami-based Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. advisory. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night.So, will it be a threat to Florida?

The National Hurricane Center is taking note of a somewhat-organized tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic. The disturbance is sneaking under a big batch of dry Saharan air, which is still spread across the tropics. The disturbance has a limited window of time to develop before it drives into the dry air and somewhat hostile upper winds. At the end of the week, the upper winds and the dry air are forecast to affect the system. Pockets of dry air aloft are forecast to pass over South Florida this week, which will limit the rain when they do.

A broad tropical disturbance extending from the Caribbean north into the Atlantic waters is heading west in the strong flow across the ocean. The disturbance technically a tropical wave will move across South Florida as a moisture surge late tomorrow into Tuesday. When the disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico mid to late week, the atmospheric conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development. This disturbance represents a moist gap in the plume of Saharan Dust that has been covering the tropical Atlantic much of the summer. As a result, no tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic or the Caribbean this week.

A tropical disturbance is approaching the southern Caribbean islands, but it has run into hostile upper-level winds and Saharan Dust and its falling apart. The disturbance represents a moist gap between two clouds of dry Saharan Dust. The Saharan Dust is no doubt playing a part. In addition, the Saharan Dust acts like a blanket, trapping heat near the earth at night. With this current pattern, wed expect hot weather, but not crazy hot.