The Local 10 News Weather Authority meteorologists are tracking a tropical wave that continued to push west on Sunday in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Forecasters at Colorado State University – the group to pioneer seasonal hurricane forecasting in the early 1980s – issued its first outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday. Their outlook calls for an “extremely active” hurricane season in 2024, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five hurricanes to reach Category 3, 4, or 5 status, with winds of 111 mph or stronger.

For the second year in a row, we’ve exhausted the list of names allocated for the Atlantic hurricane season.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Fay are speeding out of the Northeast and into Canada today. The flow around the bottom side of that large low-pressure system put a light west wind across South Florida. In and around the Bahamas, the Straits of Florida south of the Keys, and the near-shore waters off the southwest coast, the water is three to six degrees above normal. Take away the ocean breeze effect, and we really heat up, as we’ve seen this summer. Long-range computer forecast models bring in a decent ocean breeze with the disturbance as part of a general shift in the dominant wind direction over South Florida.

An upper-level low pressure system will cover the Southeast U.S. for the next week. It will scoop waves of moisture out of the tropics and over South Florida. This configuration of weather systems is common early in the hurricane season, which on average makes June one of the two rainiest months. Meanwhile, dust from the Sahara Desert is spreading across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, and will eventually reach the Gulf of Mexico. This has the effect of drying the air over the tropics, which limits activity.

Dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert in Africa have spread over the tropical Atlantic. This so-called Saharan Air Layer tends to keep tropical systems from forming by acting like a giant sponge. Computer model forecasts — like this one from NASA — show the plume of dusty air spreading across the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and into the Gulf of Mexico through at least the next week. Computer model forecasts show the plume of dusty air spreading across the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and into the Gulf of Mexico through at least the next week. Dry air has pushed in from the northeast, but it won’t last.

PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – This year’s first tropical system may form before the Atlantic hurricane season even starts. The National Hurricane Center is eyeing an area around the northern Bahamas for potential subtropical development this weekend. Therefore, if it were to strengthen, it would be classified as a subtropical system. The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1. ALSO SEENew Hurricane Season forecast predicts busier than normal seasonFlorida makes plans for dealing with coronavirus during hurricane season

In this episode of the Bryan Norcross Podcast, Bryan and Luke discuss a quiet tropics and whether an El Niño is building in the Atlantic. Monroe County Emergency Management Director Marty Senterfitt joins to talk about the Keys since Irma. Each week, Local 10 Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross and meteorologist Luke Dorris bring their expertise and experience to discuss what kind of weather phenomena is currently happening in the tropics and around the world. SUBSCRIBE to the Bryan Norcross Podcast - iTunes | Android