President Donald Trump’s sharp tariff hikes last week have sent the stock market into a tailspin, raised alarm bells among Wall Street executives, and heightened many economists’ worries that the U.S. could tip into recession.

For the first time in 3 years, ISM readings signal the manufacturing sector has contracted, amidst the US/China trade war. The Institute of Supply Management's closely-watched manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 in September, its lowest level since June 2009 and worse than what economists had expected. Companies that make machinery cited softening demand and reduced backlogs, but food, beverage and tobacco producers said Chinese tariffs are hurting their businesses, the ISM survey showed. The central banks cut interest rates twice this year, in July and again last month, to boost the economy. The softening manufacturing data could change this.