A hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm warning for Jamaica have been issued as a weather system in the Caribbean is expected to strengthen.

Overnight computer models waffled on the outlook for a disturbance we’ve been following in the southwestern and central Caribbean, softening its development prospects and pushing back the development window into early next week.

As we detailed a week ago in this newsletter, the Caribbean is expected to make another run at tropical development later this week or into the weekend as we turn the calendar to November.

Oscar has weakened to a tropical storm after making landfall Sunday in eastern Cuba.

After forming in the western Caribbean, Tropical Storm Nadine was away from Florida and impacted Central America on Saturday.

National Hurricane Center meteorologists in Miami reported Sunday afternoon that a well-defined area of low pressure could become the next tropical depression in the Atlantic.

Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning at a rate rarely seen and is on course to strike west-central Florida as one of the most impactful U.S. hurricanes in modern memory.

In the wake of hurricanes that have disrupted lives for millions in the U.S., some people may wonder if extreme weather events could be somehow controlled.

The last time the eye of a major storm like Hurricane Milton directly struck Tampa Bay was 1921 when the city was a sleepy backwater.

As Hurricane Milton approached Florida from the Gulf of Mexico Sunday, Gov. Ron DeSantis extended his declaration of a state of emergency from 32 to 51 counties — including Miami-Dade, Broward, and Monroe.

Tropical Storm Milton, formed on Saturday and strengthened into a hurricane Sunday before accelerating towards Florida’s west coast on Monday and Tuesday into Wednesday.

North Miami Beach was among the cities distributing sandbags Sunday to help residents in flood-prone areas prepare for the risk of storms as a hurricane remained on Florida’s forecast.

U.S. Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported Sunday that Milton was rapidly intensifying into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, according to The National Hurricane Center.

A Walt Disney World fan site announced Saturday night that visitors “should expect park closures” due to Milton, a tropical storm set to strengthen into a hurricane that will impact Florida.

Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on Saturday afternoon that he declared a state of emergency in Miami-Dade, Broward, Monroe, and 32 other counties in Florida.

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression 14 on Saturday into Milton, a tropical storm forecasted to strengthen into a hurricane that will impact Florida.

A broad area of low pressure and storminess we’ve been tracking over the Gulf of Mexico this week is expected to bring persistent rounds of heavy rain to much of the Florida peninsula – including across South Florida – beginning in earnest on Sunday and lasting through much of next week.

A sloppy, broad area of low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

After Hurricane Helene’s far-reaching force, meteorologists were tracking five systems. None posed an immediate threat to South Florida, but one in the southwestern Caribbean was moving north and getting stronger.

Fast-moving Hurricane Helene was large and powerful. Its widespread storm surge devastated some coastal areas in Florida, and its far-reaching heavy rains affected Georgia, South Carolina, and mountainous regions in North Carolina and Tennessee.

Two tropical cyclones are continuing to move over open water in the Atlantic, but forecasters say neither poses a threat to land.

Hurricane Helene has made landfall in northwestern Florida as a Category 4 storm as forecasters warn of “catastrophic” flooding along the Gulf Coast.

Forecasters are warning that Hurricane Helene will intensify into a major storm before striking Florida and further inland as it heads northward across the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane John fell apart as quickly as it formed but left destruction along Mexico’s southern Pacific coast, including deadly mudslides and flooding that may linger.

Tropical Storm Helene formed in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday after bringing heavy rains and big waves to the Cayman Islands.

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center continued to raise the specter of tropical formation over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico for the early to middle part of next week.

On Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center outlined an area of possible tropical development in the western Caribbean for early next week.

Francine strengthened into a hurricane by late Tuesday and continued to strengthen into the morning hours Wednesday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as it made its final approach to coastal Louisiana.

A large disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is organizing and is expected to become Tropical Storm Francine later today as it sets its sights on the northwestern Gulf Coast.

As we’ve discussed in recent newsletters, the tropical struggles across the Atlantic only days removed from the hurricane season peak – especially in a season forecast to bring exceptional activity – feel more unusual with each passing day.

It’s been an unusually quiet stretch during what is traditionally one of the busier parts of the hurricane season.

A tropical wave producing thunderstorms was strengthening on Saturday afternoon in the Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center Miami’s tropical weather outlook.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen any new candidates for development in the Atlantic, but this morning the National Hurricane Center is highlighting two areas.

Three tropical cyclones are swirling over the Pacific Ocean, including a tropical storm that blasted Hawaii’s Big Island with heavy rain.

We don’t want to be the ones to tempt fate, or to jinx a good thing, but forecast models continue to advertise another strangely stormless week in the Atlantic, which could get us into early September without another tropical system.

Two people who drowned off South Carolina’s Hilton Head Island where rip current warnings related to Hurricane Ernesto were posted have been identified as Ohio men.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Leeward Islands north of Dominica westward to Anguilla for the expectation of tropical storm conditions (winds of 39 mph or stronger) in the next 36 hours.

The National Hurricane Center has issued tropical storm watches for portions of the Leeward Islands as forecasters monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

The long and soggy saga of Debby continues today, though the storm is finally starting to move after days upon days of meandering along the southeast U.S. coastline.

Tropical storm Debby made landfall as a hurricane in one of the least populated areas of Florida, but it's been blamed for at least four deaths in that state.

It’s an area of low atmospheric pressure, thunderstorms and wind sloshing out of the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.

Late on Friday, the strong disturbance dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Four earlier in the day by the National Hurricane Center finally gained enough organization south of Cuba to be classified as a Tropical Depression. By Saturday morning, hurricane watches had been issued for Florida’s sweeping Big Bend, from just west of Apalachicola to near Crystal River.

Forecasters say a tropical depression over Cuba is growing better organized and is likely to bring drenching rain and coastal flooding to much of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Tropical Depression Four is likely to strengthen into Tropical Depression Debby on Saturday, and later into a hurricane.

A tropical storm warning and a flood watch by the National Hurricane Center were in effect on Friday night in the Florida Keys, from Key Largo to Key West.

A storm system brewing over Cuba on Friday could bring torrential rain and flooding to the Florida peninsula this weekend.

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center designated the strong tropical disturbance now moving across eastern Cuba Invest 97L, a procedural move that allowed NHC to begin running a specialized suite of computer models to better interpret its future strength and track.

In Wednesday morning’s newsletter, we discussed how the interplay between the robust tropical wave moving through the complex terrain of the northeastern Caribbean islands today and tomorrow would be crucial to its forecast this weekend.

We continue to follow a large tropical wave moving toward the easternmost Caribbean islands with little fanfare.

Beginning last Wednesday we began previewing the possibility of development of a tropical disturbance nearing the Caribbean islands for this week and in Friday morning’s newsletter we discussed a more conducive configuration for development once the disturbance moves into the western Atlantic later this week.

Texas officials are telling coastal residents to expect power outages and flooding as Beryl was forecast to regain hurricane strength before making landfall.

After leaving a trail of destruction across the eastern Caribbean and at least nine people dead, Hurricane Beryl has strengthened back into a Category 3 storm as it chugs over open water toward Mexico’s resort-studded Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane Beryl continues its track Tuesday across the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica on Wednesday.

Hurricane Beryl has strengthened to Category 5 status as it crosses islands in the southeastern Caribbean.

Beryl has restrengthened into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.

Beryl strengthened into a new Category hurricane on Saturday afternoon and is forecast to strengthen into a Category 3.

A strong tropical disturbance over the eastern Atlantic – designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center – is poised to organize into the first significant storm of the young hurricane season as it churns toward the easternmost Caribbean islands for early next week.

On Monday, the National Hurricane Center designated the sprawling area of low pressure twisting through the southern Gulf of Mexico Potential Tropical Cyclone One, introducing the first forecast cone of the 2024 hurricane season.

It’s a scenario South Floridians know all-too-well. A major surge of saturated tropical air from the Caribbean will bring rounds of heavy rainfall and a prolonged, multi-day flood threat – but this week on the other side of the Gulf to parts of northern Mexico and much of South Texas.

As we say often in this newsletter, things can change in a hurry in the tropics, and with formation areas closer to the U.S. in the early months, it’s always worth a daily check-in. Our forecast models reminded us of this over the weekend as they quickly latched on to a new system east of the Bahamas for possible development in the days ahead.

Typically over the past 50 years, the first named storm in the Atlantic has formed around this time in June. It’s no surprise then that the first bona fide attempt at tropical development looks to be next week in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

On Tuesday, the first slug of tropical rains overspread South Florida in what’s forecast to be a multi-day deluge for the lower tier of the Sunshine State.

The Local 10 News Weather Authority’s special Staying Storm Safe In Hot Water looks ahead to the Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1.

U.S. officials who predict, prepare for and respond to natural disasters have a message for Floridians: It’s not a matter of if but when a hurricane will hit the state.

When Dr. Robert Simpson boarded a military helicopter from Miami on Aug. 19, 1969, bound for the central Gulf Coast, little could prepare him for the horrors he would witness as the first National Hurricane Center director to survey the immediate aftermath of a hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center will add inland predictions to its forecast of the location and ferocity of tropical storms.

A busy Atlantic hurricane season is now coming to a close.

Today marks the official end of the 2023 hurricane season, an active year with over half the season occupied by named storms – the fifth highest coverage in 50 years – but with just one U.S. hurricane landfall and two U.S. landfalling tropical storms.

For several days, forecast models have signaled possible tropical development in the western Caribbean by week’s end, but we’re now beginning to get a clearer picture of the system’s trajectory into the weekend.

As we’ve covered in previous newsletters, the western and central Caribbean is a hotbed for tropical development in October and early November, so it’s an area we naturally look to this time of year.

Hurricane Otis has strengthened from a tropical storm to a dangerous Category 5 storm in a matter of hours as it approaches Mexico’s southern Pacific coast, where it is forecast to make landfall near the resort of Acapulco early Wednesday.

Hurricane Norma made landfall near the resorts of Los Cabos at the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula on Saturday and has weakened to a tropical storm while moving over land.

Lidia has dissipated after hitting land as a Category 4 hurricane near the resort of Puerto Vallarta.

Lidia has dissipated after hitting land as a Category 4 hurricane near the resort of Puerta Vallarta, where one person was killed by a falling tree and two others were injured.

An area of low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with a washed-out cold front will lift northward today and accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and early Thursday toward the northern Gulf Coast.

It’s been a tough week for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center trying to predict the next move of Tropical Storm Philippe. Their forecast headlines tell the story: “PHILIPPE’S FATE IS UNCERTAIN” sums up a frustrating week.

On Friday afternoon, the non-tropical frontal low designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 quickly transitioned into Tropical Storm Ophelia off the southeast U.S. coast and made a run at becoming a hurricane over the warm Gulf Stream before moving inland.

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center issued tropical storm warnings ahead of a large coastal storm coming together off the southeast U.S. coast.

It may or may not garner a name, but the coastal storm developing off the southeast U.S. today (now designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center) will bring tropical storm conditions to a wide stretch of shoreline from Myrtle Beach northward through the Outer Banks and into the Virginia Tidewater starting tomorrow into Saturday.

Forecasters in Bermuda are warning of dangerous swells and rip currents as Hurricane Nigel spun through open waters in the northern Atlantic.

A coastal low forecast to develop north of the Bahamas by Thursday into Friday may try to take on some tropical characteristics as it brings gusty winds, rough seas and the possibility of coastal flooding from northeast Florida through the Carolinas by the weekend.

A rapidly intensifying storm in the Atlantic has developed into a hurricane.

Hurricane Lee – the storm which grew from a tropical wave we first mentioned in this newsletter back on August 31st before it had even emerged off Africa or garnered a yellow circle from NHC – will this weekend end its over 5,000-mile Atlantic journey spanning over 10 days.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in anticipation of strong winds above 38 mph on Lee’s western side.

Hurricane Lee is charging through warm Atlantic waters and threatening to unleash heavy swells across the northeast Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Lee, which formed Monday afternoon in the central Atlantic, continues to strengthen and is almost a hurricane this morning.

Tropical Storm Lee has strengthened into a hurricane as it churns through the open waters of the Atlantic on a path that would take it near the northeast Caribbean.

In the final hours before Hurricane Idalia struck Florida, experts say its eye experienced a phenomenon that kept it from further intensifying.

The Florida county sheriff where Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a Category 3 storm says so far there have been no reported deaths or serious injuries.

If you have plans to visit Central Florida's theme parks this week, there may be some changes in the air as Hurricane Idalia strengthens and makes its way to Florida's gulf coast.

Tropical Storm Idalia, which formed late morning Sunday, is forecast to steadily strengthen into a hurricane today and intensify into a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as it accelerates toward Florida’s Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia intensified and was expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches Florida’s Gulf Coast later this week, the National Hurricane Center said Monday, as officials declared states of emergencies in dozens of counties and ordered some evacuations in preparation for potentially life-threatening storm surges.

An area of low pressure between Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula – designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center – has steadily organized since Friday and is expected to become a tropical depression or storm by later today or Sunday.

If you’re a regular reader of this newsletter, you know that since Monday, we’ve been previewing the possibility of low-pressure development this weekend around the Yucatán Peninsula and the western Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Hilary has drenched Southern California, swept people into swollen rivers, toppled trees onto homes and flooded roads.

Tropical Storm Hilary is swirling northward just off the coast of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane Hilary has strengthened into a major storm off Mexico’s Pacific coast, and it could bring heavy rain to the southwestern U.S. by the weekend.

A new study finds that hurricanes the last few decades killed thousands more people than meteorologists calculate and a disproportionate number were poor, vulnerable and minorities.

We rarely get through August in the Atlantic without a jump in hurricane season activity, that abrupt transition which takes us from the July doldrums to the rapid pace of hurricane season’s busiest 6-week stretch.

Though July managed to eke out the Atlantic’s first hurricane of 2023 – Don, a hurricane for all but 12 hours in the far reaches of the North Atlantic – 3 out of 4 Julys end without recording a single hurricane.