Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W and extends southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N19W to 02N35W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N to 04N between 05W and 23W.

Gulf Of America

At 1800 UTC, a 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 28N91W. A cold front extends from the low center near Poza Rica, Mexico. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds to gale force, is ahead of the front. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted in the wake of the front. East of the front and low, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly progress to the south and east into early next week. Strong thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the front, producing very strong winds and rough seas. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds are also expected in the wake of the front through Sat, with the most persistent strong winds occurring west of 95W offshore of Mexico into early Sat. Locally rough seas may accompany these winds, especially near Tampico and Veracruz. Winds will diminish by early Sun. Farther east, low pressure looks to strengthen in the eastern Gulf on Sat, producing fresh to strong winds surrounding the low as it moves northeastward through the basin into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A weak ridge north of the Caribbean supports gentle to moderate trades with the exception of moderate to fresh NE winds just S of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic to about 15N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except in the lee of Cuba where seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade winds, is moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly into Sun, ahead of a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of America. Elsewhere, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are then expected to expand across much of the central Caribbean late tonight through early next week as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will also pulse through the Windward Passage into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak 1015 mb low pressure is analyzed near 27N68W. No significant weather is near this low. A cold front is approaching the Canary Islands in the far east Atlantic, followed by strong NW winds and 9 to 13 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1033 mb high pressure located near 38N46W. This system supports an area of fresh to locally strong E to SE winds from 20N and 31N between 45W and 58W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. The tropical Atlantic is characterized by gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse and locally rough seas are expected east of 65W into Sun as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure east of the Bahamas. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE winds are slated to develop offshore of Florida and the Bahamas by Sat night ahead of a cold front moving through the eastern Gulf of America. Looking ahead, strong S winds may develop offshore of northern Florida early next week as the aforementioned cold front moves into the western Atlantic.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr