Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 10N15W and extends southwestward to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 06N35W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 25W and 39W.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure is dominating the weather across the basin. Moderate N winds are occurring E of 85W. Light to gentle variable winds are occurring elsewhere along with slight seas.

For the forecast, moderate N winds over the E Gulf will diminish to gentle speeds today. Otherwise, high pressure and associated surface ridging will be the dominant features across the basin through Wed. Low pressure will start to develop along Mexico tonight, tightening the pressure gradient and leading to the development of moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf, continuing through early Mon. A weak cold front may move into the far NW Gulf early next week, then stall and weaken. A return of moderate to fresh southerly winds is expected again over the western Gulf Tue night through Wed night.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba SW to the Nicaragua offshore waters followed by fresh to strong N winds and moderate seas. Scattered showers associated with the front are occurring in the SW basin where also the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough supports similar shower activity. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing elsewhere along with slight seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken and dissipate through Sun. Strong N winds behind the front, in the lee side of E Cuba and over the Nicaragua offshores, will diminish to fresh speeds by this evening. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure building over the SW Atlantic subtropical waters will lead to the development of fresh NE winds in the Atlantic Passages today and fresh to strong NE to E winds S of Hispaniola Sun through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades in the E Caribbean will reach fresh speeds Sun through Tue. Gentle to moderate SE winds are forecast in the E Caribbean the remainder forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N62W SW to the Turks and Caicos where it stalls to E Cuba. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N66W SW to the central Bahamas with fresh to strong winds ahead and behind it and over the waters N of 28N between 58W and 77W. Farther east, surface high pressure of 1017 mb and its associated ridge covers the central subtropical waters while low pressure associated with the remnants of a former front dominates the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are ongoing over these two regions.

For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing front will merge with the leading front today, extend from 31N57W to 23N64W by this evening and move E of the area by Sun evening. Fresh to strong winds will continue to affect the SW subtropical waters N of 27N through Sun, however rough seas will subside below 12 ft by late Tue. The next front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night and lift N of the area late Wed.

Posted 1 hour, 51 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos