Special Features

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force N to NE winds offshore Agadir now through 17/00 UTC. Rough to very rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00S46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01S to 04N between 07W and 16W, and from 04S to 04N between 20W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from Marco Island to 27N92W while a surface ridge continue to build over the western half of the Gulf in the wake of it. The related gradient between the ridge and the front is producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow throughout the area, except for locally fresh NNE winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight basin-wide.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue southward through early Thu producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow throughout the area into early Thu. Changes will be upcoming as low pressure begins to deepen in the Plains on Thu, and while a broad area of stronger high pressure builds west-southwestward toward the northern Gulf. The resultant gradient is expected to develop fresh to strong east to southeast winds along with mostly rough seas across the western half of the Gulf starting late Thu night. These winds will expand in coverage starting Fri covering most of the basin by Fri, including the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. Winds will begin to diminish Sun. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are expected each afternoon and night offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops each day and migrates westward.

Caribbean Sea

The Caribbean is under the influence of a Gulf of America ridge that extends to the NW Caribbean and the central Atlantic ridge that extends to the northern waters of the remainder basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and a 1006 mb low over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds elsewhere. Seas are slight over the NW Caribbean, moderate over the central and eastern waters, and rough to 8 ft over the basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force northeast winds and rough seas are expected offshore of Colombia each night and morning through this weekend, then fresh to strong winds early next week. In the Gulf of Venezuela, pulsing strong winds are expected through Sat, then winds at mostly fresh speeds afterward. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the basin through Thu, then begin to expand in coverage for the rest of the period.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on gale- force winds offshore of Agadir and rough to very rough seas near the Canary Islands.

A stationary extends from 31N45W southwestward to 24N60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located near the tail of the front S of 27N between the southern Bahamas and 60W. A cold front extends from 31N69W to southern Florida near 26N80W. Winds ahead and behind these fronts are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 high pressure system centered near 32N22W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the tropics support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across the vast majority of the basin, especially west of 23W. Otherwise, extending from the gales in the Agadir region, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft are ongoing between the NW coast of Africa and the Canary Islands, extending as far south as 19N and E of 23W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N65W to the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida early Thu and from near 31N61W to the central Bahamas by Thu evening. The front will then become stationary over the eastern part of the area during the upcoming weekend as a large area of high pressure builds in behind it, with the parent high center to be located near 31N72W. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and the front is expected to develop fresh to strong northeast to east winds behind the front south of about 26N starting Fri. These winds will expand in coverage going into the weekend. Seas east and northeast of the Bahamas will become rough beginning Fri. Winds and seas diminish over the southern part of the area early next week. Low pressure may possibly drop southward near 55W Mon and Mon night, with associated fresh to strong north winds and rough seas impacting some of the eastern zones.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos