Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11.5W to 01N32W. The ITCZ extends from 01N32W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 02N between 05W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 27.5N90W, with a cold front extending from the low to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds are E and N of the low, with seas in the 6-8 ft range, Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast, the low will track quickly E-SE across south- central Florida tonight, with the trailing cold front moving into the NW Caribbean this evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected around the low pressure today, while moderate to fresh NW winds are expected behind the front. Weak high pressure will settle over the north- central waters Tue through Wed night leading to tranquil marine conditions across the basin. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu morning and sweep across the basin through Fri.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the north central Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the W Atlc north of the area will shift eastward today, resulting in a modest decrease in trade winds across the basin. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this evening, then reach from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning with fresh NW winds behind it. The front will stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia will diminish gradually through Tue, then strengthen again toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of the week, as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will briefly become fresh to locally strong across SE portions Tue night.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening stationary front extends from near 31N42W southwestward to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are S of 27N W of the front. A 1023 mb high is centered near 30N66W, with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-19 ft range E if 57W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere except W of 75W where seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today. Rough seas N of the front will subside across the waters W of 55W today. Elongated low pressure will move across south- central Florida and the NW Bahamas tonight, then track NE and intensify Tue, moving N of 31N by late Tue night. The low will drag a cold front across the western part of the area. Strong to near gale- force southerly winds and active convection will prevail ahead of the front and low Tue through Wed morning. By late Wed night, marine conditions will improve under a weak pressure pattern. The next cold front is expected to move offshore the SE United States Thu night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al