..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 03N35W and to NE Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 06N and between 17W and 30W.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure to the north of the basin maintains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas. A dry airmass continues to dominate the Gulf waters suppressing the development of deep convection.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the United States will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas through late week. Winds will increase some into the weekend over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE United States.

Caribbean Sea

An active stationary front reaches the Windward Passage, followed by a surface trough that extends to near NE Nicaragua. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and SW Caribbean Sea, with the strongest convection affecting eastern Panama and the offshore waters. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible across Hispaniola and southern Central America. Drier conditions are noted in the rest of the basin.

A strong ridge off New England extends southward into the Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are occurring in the central Caribbean waters, Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Sea in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low to the south will lead to widespread moderate to fresh winds over the basin into Tue night, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Winds will then relax some for the latter half of the week. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Satellite imagery depict a weak 1022 mb low pressure system north of the NW Bahamas. A cold front is forming and extends from the low pressure to the Tampa area. A warm front is analyzed from the low pressure to 28N73W. Scattered, light showers are noted north of 27N and west of 71W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N48W to 22N59W, where it becomes a stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly within 150 nm.

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge off New England and aforementioned boundaries and low pressure sustain fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 60W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds occurring a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Seas are peaking around 12 ft near 24N68W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent north of 28N and between the cold front and 70W, and also west of 77W and south of 30W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1038 mb high pressure system in the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-10 ft are prevalent in the area described, except for strong winds around the Canary Islands. The highest seas are found near 30N25W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move east while weakening. High pressure building behind the front will lead to increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough seas expected into Tue night. A low pres has developed off the central Florida coast near 28N79W and will lead to fresh to strong winds offshore NE Florida tonight and Tue.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado