Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05.5N09.5W and extends SW to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 07W and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 04N between 31W and 45W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails across the northern waters, anchored by a 1022 mb high located offshore the Florida panhandle. A surface trough is west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds west of the Yucatan peninsula, where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Light winds, and seas of 2 ft or less are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure will support an increase of winds to moderate to fresh across the NW portion today. Winds over the NW Gulf will further increase to fresh to strong tonight into Fri while expanding in coverage before beginning to diminish early Sat. Seas generated by these winds will build to around 10 ft. A weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf late Sun night into early next week, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate ahead of the front.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail elsewhere E of 80W. Over the western Caribbean, moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force speeds at night and early morning through at least the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and over the waters between Cuba tonight through Fri night. Similar winds will develop offshore central Honduras and south of Hispaniola tonight through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except diminishing to light to gentle in the lee of Cuba late in the weekend. Northerly swell may impact the Atlantic Passages this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the trough. A weak cold front extends from 31N67W to 27N72W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are west of the trough. A 1019 mb low is centered near 27.5N26W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE semicircle of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 1-12 ft are within 210 nm NW of the low. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters with fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevailing.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move across the northern waters through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing an increase in winds across much of the waters south of 29N by the end of the week and into the weekend. Rough seas will build across these waters as a result. Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend as the high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off the SE United States coast by early Tue.

Posted 15 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al