Overnight computer models waffled on the outlook for a disturbance we’ve been following in the southwestern and central Caribbean, softening its development prospects and pushing back the development window into early next week.

Two disturbances we’ve been tracking this week – one in the western Caribbean and the other passing just north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today – will bring the threat of heavy rainfall to Central America and the Greater Antilles but neither will be a concern for the mainland U.S.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 counties, including Monroe County, as an organizing cluster of storms over the western Caribbean is expected to gradually develop into a named storm over the next day or two and could quickly strengthen into a formidable hurricane.

The theme of the past few weeks continues across the Atlantic with several systems struggling to gain footing as dry and sinking air quickly squashes organized storminess.

Guatemalan police have arrested seven Guatemalans accused of having smuggled 53 migrants from Mexico and Central America who died of asphyxiation in 2022 in Texas after being abandoned in a tractor trailer in the scorching summer heat.

The disturbance we’ve been tracking all week moving through the Caribbean – tagged Invest 97L – will be moving inland over Central America by Saturday, bringing with it flooding rains and the potential for dangerous mudslides this weekend from Nicaragua and Honduras northward to Guatemala and Belize.

Despite upper-level winds turning more conducive to development since yesterday, so far the disturbance known as 97L has been unable to muster up much in the way of organized storminess.

Tropical Storm Pilar is lashing Central America with heavy rains that have already been blamed for two deaths in El Salvador as it meanders off the Pacific coast.

We continue to monitor an area of low pressure moving through the eastern Caribbean – designated Invest 97L – which could threaten Central America as an organized tropical system by week’s end.

Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Pilar has already caused two deaths in El Salvador as it meanders off the Pacific coast.

On Friday, forecast models suggested the possibility of low pressure lifting northward out of the southwestern Caribbean for early this week. Instead, a new area of spin took shape to the north of the Caribbean islands – designated Invest 96L on Saturday – not quite gathering enough steam to become a tropical depression but staving off development farther south.

A broad area of spin and storminess pivoting across Central America into the northwestern Caribbean today is forecast to slowly come together by this weekend near the Yucatán Channel and emerge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Patrick Hamilton, a combat veteran of the Vietnam War who covered civil wars in Central America as a photojournalist for The Associated Press,and later worked at Reuters covering the first Gulf War in Iraq, has died after a long struggle with cancer.

The end of a manhunt in Texas for a gunman accused of killing five Honduran neighbors hasn't quieted anger in the rural community where the April 28 shooting took place.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and the Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei have toured the archaeological site of Tikal during a trip by Tsai that aims to shore up the self-governing island’s ties with its remaining allies in Central America.

A onetime al-Qaida courier has been released after serving more than 16 years at the Guantanamo Bay detention center and enduring torture at clandestine overseas CIA sites.

A species of glass frogs found in South and Central America has the rare ability to turn on and off its transparent appearance.

Honduras has become the second country in Central America to impose a state of exception suspending some constitutional rights to deal with street gangs.

Tropical Storm Lisa – the 12th named storm in a late-blooming Atlantic hurricane season – formed Monday morning about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, in the western Caribbean.

The disturbance moving through the central Caribbean this morning – dubbed Invest 95L – is slowly organizing and will likely become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it heads toward Jamaica, Central America, and the Yucatán Peninsula this week.

A broad area of low-pressure taking shape in the eastern Caribbean – designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center – could organize into a tropical depression over the coming days as it heads toward Central America.

The Atlantic is turning a little more lively headed into November, but the two systems we’re following will keep a healthy distance from Florida and the mainland U.S. in the week ahead.

From incrementally rising temperatures and seas to an influx of natural disasters, the climate right now certainly isn't the same as it was before the industrial era.

Julia, which made landfall early Sunday on the Caribbean side of Nicaragua, scooted quickly across the rugged terrain of Central America Sunday, emerging over Pacific waters by Sunday night largely intact as a tropical storm, becoming only the third Atlantic-Pacific crossover storm to keep its name on both sides since the tropical cyclone naming rule took effect in 2000.

Similar to Bonnie back in June, Julia found its footing shortly before making landfall across Central America during the overnight hours as an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane.

This week we’re following two disturbances in the Atlantic, one which will stay over the open Atlantic and another heading toward Central America, but neither poses a threat to the United States.

American Friends Service Committee of Florida, The Florida Immigrant Coalition, and The Miramar Circle of Florida joined together for a press conference Wednesday to seek immediate action on TPS re-designation for Central American countries.

The tropical disturbance we’ve been tracking since last weekend – that moved from the southwestern Caribbean and through parts of Central America this week – has reemerged over the Bay of Campeche and extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, where it has a narrow window for development before moving inland over Mexico on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Colin has brought rain and winds to parts of North and South Carolina, though the storm has weakened and conditions are expected to improve by Monday's July Fourth celebrations.

Tropical Storm Bonnie has hit the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua near the border with Costa Rica.

Migrants have been expelled more than 1.7 million times from the U.S. under public health powers invoked in March 2020 to prevent spread of Covid-19.

The Biden administration last year quietly placed former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández on a classified list of officials suspected of corruption or undermining democracy in Central America.

A kickoff temperature of about 25 degrees is forecast for the United States’ World Cup qualifier against El Salvador at Columbus, Ohio, on Jan. 27.

Necoclí is no longer the secluded beachside town tourists from neighboring cities used to visit. The stop in a smugglers’ route is old. Local officials say the desperation is unprecedented.

A 1-0 loss to Panama again highlighted the United States' disadvantage on the road in Central America and put pressure on the Americans to win at home against Costa Rica on Wednesday in Columbus, Ohio.

The Biden administration is giving the first public look inside a U.S. military base housing Afghans airlifted out of Afghanistan, amid questions about how the government is caring for the refugees and vetting them.

Players walked off the field dejected and nervous American fans are in an uproar.

The broad low-pressure system over Central America has finally nosed in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico and some disturbed weather is taking shape there.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next few days and ride up the spine of Central America. Regardless of how much organization the system attains, very heavy rain is expected to fall this week in Panama, Nicaragua, and Honduras.

Asylum seekers wait for news of policy changes at the border, Friday, Feb. 19, 2021, in Tijuana, Mexico. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)MEXICO CITY – In the first five days since the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden began to process the thousands of asylum seekers waiting in Mexico, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees registered 12,000 people. Instituted by the Trump administration in January 2019, the program sought to discourage asylum seekers by making them wait in Mexico rather than releasing them with orders to appear for future court dates in the U.S. AdOn Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced it would begin processing asylum seekers with registered cases who have been living in a tent encampment on the banks of the Rio Grande in Matamoros, Mexico. Last week, the U.S. government began processing a small number of asylum seekers with active cases in San Diego.

Merín gave birth to her daughter next to the Rio Grande, attended to by two Border Patrol agents, showing how lives routinely end up at risk at the U.S.-Mexico border. Mother and child were hospitalized for three days, then processed at a Border Patrol station before being released to Catholic Charities. “There’s so many women in great danger,” said Sister Norma Pimentel, executive director of Catholic Charities of the Rio Grande Valley. The Border Patrol blames smugglers for using people in medical distress as decoys, drawing attention from others trying to sneak into the country. The Border Patrol defends how it treats immigrants and the medical care they receive.

KEY WEST, Fla. – A small group of Florida Keys residents marked the end of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season by dousing hurricane warning flags with rum and burning them during a waterfront ceremony. The event on Monday included remembering people still recovering from hurricanes that battered parts of the Caribbean, Central America and the United States. This year’s season was the most active ever recorded. It included 30 named storms, with 13 hurricanes. Speakers also gave thanks that the Keys escaped significant impacts, despite Eta crossing the Upper Keys on Nov. 9 as a tropical storm.

A judge on Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020 has blocked a Trump administration rule that would have put up new roadblocks for asylum-seekers convicted of a variety of crimes. The federal judge in San Francisco says current federal law already includes plenty of disqualifying crimes such as drug trafficking, money laundering and counterfeiting. (AP Photo/Cedar Attanasio, File)LOS ANGELES – A federal judge on Thursday blocked a Trump administration rule about to take effect that would have put up new roadblocks for asylum-seekers convicted of a variety of crimes. The rule would have also denied asylum to people convicted of crimes that an adjudicator “knows or has reason to believe” was committed to supporting a criminal street gang. Asylum is for people fleeing persecution for their race, religion, nationality, political beliefs or membership in a social group.

The rain in Central America is not going to let up quickly because the cold front that came through Florida will be in the vicinity as well. In addition, a Tropical Disturbance in the extreme southern Caribbean Sea will pull additional moisture over Central America and northern Colombia. It’s a broad low-pressure area at this point, and it has a very slight chance of developing into a tropical depression. Since all of the systems involved are moving slowly, the strong winds off the ocean will continue through the week. It’s unlikely to amount to much, though it has a slight chance of padding the 2020 stats.

The center of what’s left of Hurricane Iota is dying out over El Salvador, but moisture continues to be pulled into the mountainous areas in Central America, especially in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. But the flash flooding at high elevations continues, and that water cascades down the mountains in the gullies, valleys, and rivers. Conditions will slowly ease as what’s left of Iota drifts toward the Pacific Ocean and dies out tomorrow. It would have very little time to organize before it moved across Central America late this week or over the weekend. An upper-level disturbance that is helping to drive the cool air south might kick off a non-tropical system east of the Bahamas.

Iota became a Category 2 hurricane late Sunday afternoon, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center warned it would likely be an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm when it approached the Central America mainland late Monday. It was already a record-breaking system, being the 30th named storm of this year’s extraordinarily busy Atlantic hurricane season. It hit Nicaragua as a Category 4 hurricane, killing at least 120 people as torrential rains caused flash floods and mudslides in parts of Central America and Mexico. Eta was the 28th named storm of this year’s hurricane season, tying the 2005 record for named storms. The official end of hurricane season is Nov. 30.

Tropical Storm Iota formed a bit ahead of schedule yesterday under a supportive upper-level pattern and warm Caribbean water. The official forecast is for Iota to be at Category 3 strength when it makes landfall. It’s hard to believe that another intense hurricane is forecast to head in that same direction. This fall weather pattern will push the tropical moisture well to the south with a major dose of dry northern air covering the entire state. Long-range computer models maintain the fall weather pattern over Florida for the foreseeable future, which will be hostile to tropical systems.

The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.

Hurricane experts were closely watching the Caribbean, where Tropical Storm Iota formed Friday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Iota could bring dangerous wind, storm surge and as much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rainfall to northern Nicaragua and Honduras. The storm was located about 350 miles (560 kilometers) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). Iota is a record-setting 30th named storm of this year’s extraordinarily busy Atlantic hurricane season. Earlier, firefighters in Tampa had to rescue around a dozen people who got stuck in storm surge flooding on a boulevard adjacent to the bay.

Britain's Queen Elizabeth II stands on the balcolny of the Foreign Office, during the Remembrance Sunday service at the Cenotaph, in Whitehall, London, Sunday Nov. 8, 2020. (Aaron Chown/Pool Photo via AP)LONDON – Queen Elizabeth II on Monday sent her condolences to people in Mexico and Central America affected by “the tragic loss of life and destruction” caused by the devastating storm Eta. In a message to leaders in Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua, the queen lamented the destruction caused by the storm. “Prince Philip and I were deeply saddened by the tragic loss of life,'' caused by the storm, the queen's message said. Official death tolls put the number of dead at least 68 people, but hundreds more are missing.

Members of search and recovery teams search for survivors in the debris of a massive, rain-fueled landslide in the village of Queja, in Guatemala, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Eta. The storm was expected to hit Cuba by early Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys and south Florida late Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm warnings were issued for central Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. South Florida started emptying ports and a small number of shelters opened in Miami and the Florida Keys for residents in mobile homes and low lying areas. The storms’ threat comes as many streets across South Florida have been inundated by heavy rains and unusual King Tides.

A barefooted woman makes her way around debris brought on by a landslide on a road blocking traffic, in the aftermath of Hurricane Eta, in Purulha, northern Guatemala Friday, Nov. 6, 2020. In a news conference, President Alejandro Giammattei said he believed there were at least 100 dead there in San Cristobal Verapaz, but noted that was still unconfirmed. Her home in La Lima, a San Pedro Sula suburb, is 150 feet from the roiling Chamelecon river and only a short way from the international airport’s runway. It said rescues were happening Friday in San Pedro Sula and La Lima, but the need was great and resources limited. The U.S. State Department said in a statement Friday that four U.S. helicopters from the Soto Cano Air Base near Tegucigalpa had flown to San Pedro Sula to participate in rescue operations.

A pregnant woman is carried out of an area flooded by water brought by Hurricane Eta in Planeta, Honduras, Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020. (AP Photo/Delmer Martinez)TEGUCIGALPA – The rain-heavy remnants of Hurricane Eta flooded homes from Panama to Guatemala Thursday as the death toll across Central America rose to at least 57, and aid organizations warned the flooding and mudslides were creating a slow-moving humanitarian disaster across the region. Eta had sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was moving north at 8 mph (13 kph) Thursday. When what’s left of the storm wobbles back into the Caribbean it will regain some strength and become a tropical storm again, forecasts show. “Whatever comes out (of Central America) is going to linger awhile,” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Hurricane Eta is on track to be a catastrophic event in Central America — especially Nicaragua and Honduras. About Friday, what’s left of Eta is forecast to move north into the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. The National Hurricane Center will make the call based on what they are able to track of Eta’s original center. The consensus of the afternoon computer forecast models is that that dip will scoop up the disturbance, whatever shape it’s in, and lift it toward South Florida. A satellite look at Hurricane Eta on Tuesday evening, Nov. 3.

MEXICO CITY – Hurricane Eta erupted quickly into a potentially catastrophic major hurricane Monday as it headed for Central America, where forecasters warned of massive flooding and landslides across a vulnerable region. Eta was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph) late Monday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Storm surge up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) above normal tides was possible for the coast of Nicaragua. Eta tripled in strength in about 24 hours, rapidly intensifying from a 40 mph (65 kph) storm Sunday morning to a 120 mph (190 kph) hurricane around midday Monday, and continued gain power throughout the rest of the day. Hurricane season still has a month to go, ending Nov. 30.

It is likely to become organized enough to be designated a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or two. If peak winds in the circulation reach 40 mph, it will be named Tropical Storm Eta – Eta being letter in the Greek alphabet after Zeta. If this happens, and it appears likely, this will be the 28th named storm of the year, and the first time a storm has been named Eta. Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005 formed on December 30th on the other side of the Atlantic. Many of the long-range computer forecasts steer the system – likely Tropical Storm Eta – into Central America where it is torn up over the mountainous terrain.

We’re going to have to watch an energetic tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean Sea. If it achieves winds of 40 mph or higher, it will be named Tropical Storm Eta. Over the next 3 or 4 days, the disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Eta. In any case, heavy tropical rain is likely to impact Nicaragua and Honduras as the disturbance strengthens right off their coastline. It’s the high-pressure system behind this second front that we are counting on to block the Caribbean disturbance and push it into Central America.

Documents in the report suggest Health and Human Services officials weren't told by the Department of Homeland Security why shelters were receiving more children taken from their parents in late 2017. Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee released the report Thursday with emails obtained from government agencies. The report outlines discussions since the start of the Trump administration of family separation as a law enforcement tactic. Documents in the new report suggest CBP did not communicate with HHS about why shelters were receiving more separated children. The email notes “the increase in referrals” of children unaccompanied by a parent “resulting from separation of children from parents.” White sent McAleenan a chart of all the children HHS had received.

Biden's foreign policy credentials have largely been overshadowed by questions about how he would lead the U.S. through the worst pandemic in a century. But the issue could reemerge Thursday as Trump and Biden take the stage for a final debate, with a topic list including national security. But, Biden said, the president still has “no coherent plan for foreign policy” beyond “America alone.”Trump counters that “America First” is more than sloganeering. Yet heading into the final debate, Trump's loudest foreign policy pitch isn't about his record. Once the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden hails from the bipartisan establishment that shaped U.S. international policy from World War II's end until Trump's election.

Over the next week or so, two tropical disturbances will get ensnared in this large system’s circulation. First comes Tropical Disturbance #1, which is on the eastern flank of the developing larger circulation. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next few days. In general, the stronger the tropical systems become, the higher chance they can be grabbed and scooped to the north. Over the next few days it will likely meander north, which will keep South Florida in the moist tropical air.

A bubble of upper-level winds conducive for tropical development is forecast to cover the western Caribbean Sea late in the week. At the same time, a weak tropical disturbance that is now south of Haiti is forecast to arrive under that bubble. Instead, it appears that the disturbance, or whatever it becomes, will stay south, and tropical moisture will stream north enhancing the rain associated with the front. The scooping flow and cold front scenario puts the possibility of heavy rain over South Florida in the forecast into the weekend, at least. Until the pieces come together a bit more, it’s mostly speculation based on what looks like a weather pattern conducive for development over the western Caribbean.

MIAMI A re-energized Tropical Storm Cristobal advanced toward the U.S. Gulf Coast early Saturday, bringing with it the heavy rains that already caused flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America. After weakening to a tropical depression while moving over land in Mexico's Gulf coast, Cristobal headed back into the southern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and powered back up into a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said in its 7 a.m. advisory Saturday that the storm was expected to slowly strengthen until it makes landfall, expected Sunday night along the U.S. Gulf Coast. A tropical storm watch was posted for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama-Florida border. Cristobal formed this week in the Bay of Campeche from the remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda, which had sprung up last weekend in the eastern Pacific and hit Central America.

And Subtropical Storm Melissa is finally moving away from the Northeast. A broad AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER stretches from the southwestern Caribbean across Central America into the Pacific. In the long term, if something develops in the southern Gulf next week, well watch it for the northwestern Gulf coast. SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA is slowly moving away from the Northeast coast after days of pounding surf, coastal flooding, and strong winds. Its called a subtropical storm because structurally its a hybrid between a noreaster and a tropical storm.

And an unusual tropical disturbance is forecast to develop near Africa. The disturbance is part of a large area of tropical moisture that is forecast to straddle Central America for the next few days. MELISSA consolidated its thunderstorms near the center enough to be technically called Tropical Storm Melissa. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE will move off of Africa late today. Its unusual for tropical systems to thrive in the eastern Atlantic this late in the season, but this one is strong enough that it might briefly organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

A very unusual tropical system has formed on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. A very unusual tropical system has formed on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Freakish TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN has formed near the African coast. The BROAD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE straddling Central America has a couple of weak circulations embedded in it. A pocket of somewhat favorable upper-level winds may allow it to develop into a tropical depression at that time.

A very unusual tropical system has formed on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. A very unusual tropical system has formed on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Freakish TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN has formed near the African coast. The BROAD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE straddling Central America has a couple of weak circulations embedded in it. A pocket of somewhat favorable upper-level winds may allow it to develop into a tropical depression at that time.

And an unusual tropical disturbance is forecast to develop near Africa. The disturbance is part of a large area of tropical moisture that is forecast to straddle Central America for the next few days. MELISSA consolidated its thunderstorms near the center enough to be technically called Tropical Storm Melissa. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE will move off of Africa late today. Its unusual for tropical systems to thrive in the eastern Atlantic this late in the season, but this one is strong enough that it might briefly organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

And Subtropical Storm Melissa is finally moving away from the Northeast. A broad AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER stretches from the southwestern Caribbean across Central America into the Pacific. In the long term, if something develops in the southern Gulf next week, we'll watch it for the northwestern Gulf coast. SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA is slowly moving away from the Northeast coast after days of pounding surf, coastal flooding, and strong winds. It's called a "subtropical" storm because structurally it's a hybrid between a nor'easter and a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center is watching a broad area of disturbed weather extending from the southwest Caribbean across Central America into the Pacific. We're watching the southwestern Caribbean for tropical development. No effect on Florida is expected. The National Hurricane Center is watching a broad AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER extending from the southwest Caribbean across Central America into the Pacific. In the long range, if the system gets into the southern Gulf of Mexico, we'll watch it for the Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center is watching a broad area of disturbed weather extending from the southwest Caribbean across Central America into the Pacific. We're watching the southwestern Caribbean for tropical development. No effect on Florida is expected. The National Hurricane Center is watching a broad AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER extending from the southwest Caribbean across Central America into the Pacific. In the long range, if the system gets into the southern Gulf of Mexico, we'll watch it for the Gulf Coast.

(CNN) - Donald Trump would be wise to watch Guatemala's run-off presidential election this weekend closely. This means Guatemala's next president may find themselves on the receiving end of immense pressure from the US president and his administration. Guatemala's next president will be tasked with overseeing the final implementation of a controversial agreement reached between Trump and his Guatemalan counterpart, outgoing President Jimmy Morales, in late July. Between 2008 and 2012, she served as Guatemala's first lady during the presidency of her husband, Alvaro Colom. He has described the outgoing Morales as irresponsible, but has not ruled out the asylum deal himself.