LAS VEGAS – The Ravens opened as substantial favorites over the Steelers in the wild-card round playoffs, a little surprising given postseason point spreads tend be tighter and these AFC North rivals usually play intense games that go down to the final minutes.
And then the Pittsburgh-Baltimore point spreads actually went up.
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Bettors were not impressed with the Steelers' season-ending four-game losing streak that included a 34-17 loss at Baltimore on Dec. 21. The Ravens, on the other end, closed with a four-game winning streak to snatch the division.
So the line at BetMGM Sportsbook went from 9 to 10 points for Saturday's game.
“Probably an indictment on the Steelers,” BetMGM senior manager Tristan Davis said. “In my opinion, they're the worst team in the playoffs and probably playing the second-best team in the playoffs, so the line move makes sense to me.”
The line movement was less dramatic at DraftKings but still notable, going from 9 1/2 to 10.
“I see (Steelers quarterback) Russell Wilson not playing well,” DraftKings race and sports operations director Johnny Avello said. “The team is just not anywhere near where they were six weeks ago. The power rating for the Ravens has gone up a bit, and the power rating for the Steelers is going backward.”
That said, CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall found the number surprisingly high.
“Until that last game a few weeks ago, the previous 10 games had all been decided by seven or fewer, and most of those, much fewer,” Marshall said. “Pittsburgh has won a lot of those. I wonder sometimes if they're reacting a little too much to the last couple of weeks.”
Jury out on Darnold
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold was making a serious case for AP NFL MVP and had Minnesota on the verge of securing the NFC's top seed.
Then the Vikings played the Lions in the regular-season's final game.
Detroit dominated, and Darnold looked more like the Darnold who had struggled in previous seasons, failing to capitalize on several opportunities in the 31-9 loss.
“How good is Darnold, really?” Avello asked. “Is it just an aberration this year, or is he starting to feel (pressure) now?”
Avello also called it "emotionally a real hit for the Vikings.”
“The question everyone's got to ask (regarding) Darnold, did the clock strike midnight for him last week?" Marshall asked. “For the first time this year, that sort of looked like the old Darnold. He had been remarkably composed for most of this year.”
Nightmare scenario
The Lions and two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs received first-round byes.
Both teams represent heavy liability for BetMGM should they meet for the title.
“The Lions and Chiefs are the ones we'd rather not see in the Super Bowl this year,” Davis said. “If we caught both of them, so be it. But if we get one of them out of the championship game, we'll take that.”
Marshall isn't a buyer of either team.
“Something tells me (the Chiefs) aren't going to make it this year,” Marshall said. "They've had too many — too many — close calls. This offense is so much (Patrick) Mahomes trying to make something happen. The defense is good enough, but they don't score a lot of points.
“I still have concerns with (the Lions). This gung-ho style of (coach Dan) Campbell, I don't like it. There's an arrogance about the way they play.”
Move to neutral site
The Vikings-Los Angeles Rams game Monday night was shifted from Inglewood, California, to Glendale, Arizona, because of the wildfires in the Los Angeles area
The Vikings were 1-point favorites at BetMGM before the game was taken off the board.
“It's sort of disruptive both ways a little bit,” Marshall said before the announcement was made. “It turns into sort of a road game (for the Rams).”
Totals move down
Early betting moved a number of totals downward, but Avello said that shouldn't be confused with bettors expecting a series of low-scoring games.
“Yeah, they got bet down a little, but the lowest total in all these games was 42 1/2,” Avello said. “There are no 37s or 38s. There's no team that consistently shuts down their opponent.”
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