Pro Picks: Ravens, Bills, 49ers, Lions will advance to conference championship games

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs against the Miami Dolphins during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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Eight teams remain. Four games to determine the NFLā€™s Final Four. Plenty of story lines.

Josh Allen and the Bills have a third chance to get their first playoff win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers hit the road to get respect from C.J. Gardner-Johnson and the Detroit Lions.

Lamar Jackson and the No. 1 seed Ravens aim to change their playoff narrative when they host C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.

The No. 1 seed 49ers and the Green Bay Packers renew their playoff rivalry with two new quarterbacks leading the way this time around.

After a winning regular season, Pro Picks aims to rebound from a losing start in the wild-card round.

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE

Line: Ravens minus 9 1/2

Stroud had a spectacular playoff debut for the Texans (11-7) in a 45-14 rout over Cleveland. First-year coach DeMeco Ryans quickly turned the franchise around with Stroudā€™s help but now theyā€™re the huge underdogs, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jackson had an All-Pro season leading Baltimore (13-4) to 10 wins over teams that finished with winning records. The Ravens won eight of those games by at least 14 points, including a 25-9 victory against Houston in Week 1.

These arenā€™t the same Texans four months later. Baltimore hopes itā€™s not the same playoff failure for Jackson, who is just 1-3 in the postseason.

Stroud had one of the best seasons for a rookie quarterback and handled the leagueā€™s top-ranked defense last week. But heā€™s facing another stout unit led by All-Pros Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton.

RAVENS, 30-20

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: 49ers minus 9 1/2

This will be a record 10th playoff meeting between the two teams with San Francisco riding a four-game winning streak behind two wins apiece by Colin Kaepernick and Jimmy Garoppolo. Now, itā€™s Brock Purdyā€™s turn for the 49ers and Jordan Love at QB instead of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers (10-8).

Love also had a sensational playoff debut in a 48-32 rout over Dallas. The Cowboys entered with the fifth-ranked defense and had zero answers for coach Matt LaFleurā€™s game plan. Love, Aaron Jones and Romeo Doubs were unstoppable.

The 49ers (12-5) have a dynamic offense led by All-Pros Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk and Purdy, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. They also have a star-studded defense led by All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward.

BEST BET: 49ERS, 34-19

TAMPA BAY at DETROIT

Line: Lions minus 6 1/2

Mayfield followed up his best season with an excellent performance in a 32-9 victory over Philadelphia. But Gardner-Johnson, a Lions cornerback, wasnā€™t all that impressed. He praised the Buccaneersā€™ wide receivers this week and added theyā€™d be even better with a good quarterback. Mayfield responded by questioning whether Gardner-Johnson has watched any film because he mentioned Bucs receiver Russell Gage as one of the dangerous playmakers even though heā€™s been injured all season.

The trash talk on the field should be fun.

Jared Goff led the Lions (13-5) to a 24-23 win over the Rams last week after Detroitā€™s offense opened with three straight touchdown drives.

Tampa Bayā€™s defense shut down Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia but now faces a tougher challenge. The Lions cruised to a 20-6 road win over the Buccaneers (10-8) in Week 6.

LIONS, 23-20

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO

Line: Bills minus 2 1/2

Finally, the Bills get the Chiefs at home in January.

Mahomesā€™ first road playoff game of his career comes after two victories over the Bills at home in consecutive postseasons in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The teams didnā€™t face off last year in the playoffs when the Chiefs (12-6) went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Bills (12-6) were 6-6 before a 20-17 victory at Kansas City ignited a five-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Theyā€™re playing on shorter rest after a snowstorm forced them to play Pittsburgh on Monday. The Chiefs had two extra daysā€™ rest after beating Miami last Saturday night.

BILLS, 24-23

Last week: Straight up: 2-4. Against spread: 2-4

Regular season: Straight up: 168-104. Against spread: 144-118-10.

Playoffs: Straight up: 2-4. Against spread: 2-4

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-10. Against spread: 6-12-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 8-11. Against spread: 11-8.

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