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'Freakish' storm forms off African coast

Location, organization of Tropical Depression 15 a first for this time of year

A very unusual tropical system has formed on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. And a disturbance over Central America will have to be watched this week.

A very unusual tropical system has formed on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. And a disturbance over Central America will have to be watched this week.

Freakish TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN has formed near the African coast. We donā€™t have any examples in the record book of a system organizing enough to be called a tropical depression in that part of the ocean this time of year.

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Thereā€™s a small window of time for the depression to intensify into Tropical Storm Nestor over the next day as it tracks near the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa. After that, itā€™s forecast to slowly fade out as atmospheric conditions become more hostile.

The TROPICAL DISTURBANCE in the middle of the Atlantic has a very slight chance of organizing into a tropical depression before it gets to the Caribbean islands in a day or two. Upper-level winds are becoming increasingly hostile, and the system is most likely to affect the islands as a moisture surge.

The BROAD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE straddling Central America has a couple of weak circulations embedded in it. The one on the north side may organize some when it reaches the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico ā€” the Bay of Campeche ā€” in a day or two. A pocket of somewhat favorable upper-level winds may allow it to develop into a tropical depression at that time.

Whether the system develops or not, the moisture is forecast to head toward the western or northern Gulf coast.

Increasingly, the upper-level winds over the tropics are too hostile for tropical systems to form. But there are still pockets of conducive winds, and the waters are plenty warm. If a disturbance happens to coincide with those pockets, it can still develop.


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We donā€™t have to think too hard to remember that strong and destructive storms can form in the second half of October. Think Wilma and Sandy.


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