BEIRUT – An already fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah appeared to be on shaky ground Friday after rockets fired from Lebanon into northern Israel triggered Israeli airstrikes in the suburbs of Beirut.
The rocket launch from Lebanon was the second in a week, after a lull since December. In both cases, Hezbollah denied being behind the attacks.
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The Israeli military has continued to strike regularly in southern Lebanon, but Friday was the first time it hit the Lebanese capital since a ceasefire deal brokered by the U.S. and France brought an end to the latest Israel-Hezbollah war in late November.
The exchange highlighted the tenuous nature of the deal and worried residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs and border communities in Israel, many of whom only recently returned to their homes after being displaced during the war.
Here are details of the ceasefire deal and a look at how Friday’s blowup might affect it.
What does the ceasefire deal say?
Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, the day after its ally Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the war in Gaza. Israel responded with airstrikes and shelling, and the two sides were locked in a low-level conflict for nearly a year.
In September 2024, the exchange of fire escalated into a full-scale war. Israel launched widespread aerial bombardment of the country and a ground invasion in southern Lebanon. More than 4,000 people were killed in Lebanon, including much of Hezbollah’s top leadership but also hundreds of civilians.
The internationally brokered deal that ended the war called for both Hezbollah and Israeli forces to withdraw from the area south of the Litani River in Lebanon, which would be patrolled by a beefed-up Lebanese army, along with U.N. peacekeepers.
The agreement called for Lebanese authorities to prevent Hezbollah and other armed groups from launching attacks on Israel and for Israel to halt “offensive military operations” in Lebanon. However, the deal allows both sides to act in “self defense” without defining what that means.
It also left vague how Hezbollah’s weapons and military facilities north of the Litani River should be treated, saying that Lebanese authorities should dismantle unauthorized facilities starting with the area south of the river.
How has the deal held up so far?
While the ceasefire ended the all-out war, it did not end the conflict altogether. Israel has launched regular airstrikes in southern Lebanon since the agreement took effect, saying that it is targeting Hezbollah facilities and officials to prevent the group from rearming.
The initial deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon was in late January, but it was later extended to Feb. 18. When Israel did not withdraw from border villages by the original deadline, hundreds of demonstrators, some of them carrying Hezbollah flags, attempted to enter the villages, and Israeli troops opened fire, killing more than 20 people.
After Feb. 18, Israeli forces withdrew from most of the border area but continued to occupy five strategic overlook points in southern Lebanon, saying that the military needed to maintain a presence there to protect border villages in northern Israel. Lebanese officials have called for a full withdrawal.
The U.N. peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL said in a statement Friday that it has tracked more than 650 “trajectories” fired across the border since the ceasefire agreement took hold, with “the vast majority" of them traveling from Israel to Lebanon. It also reported more than 30 airstrikes in southern Lebanon and nearly 1,200 “activities” by Israeli ground troops.
Hezbollah has announced only one strike on Israel since the ceasefire took effect, when it fired rockets into the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights in December.
Who launched Friday's rockets?
Hezbollah denied responsibility for this week's launches into Israel — both of which were shot down — and accused Israel of seeking a pretext to continue attacking Lebanon.
Some in Lebanon theorized that the launches were carried out by armed Palestinian factions, particularly since the launch pads discovered by the Lebanese army appeared to be primitive.
But some analysts took the militant group’s denial with a grain of salt.
Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank, said it is unlikely that the launches could have taken place without Hezbollah’s blessing.
“At the end of the day, who’s active in southern Lebanon?" he said.
Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, said the missiles could have been an authorized action by Hezbollah or the result of “an external actor who decided to make a point.”
They could also have been an unauthorized action by "local Hezbollah guys who were upset at the fact that the leadership has been very passive” in the face of the Israeli attacks in Lebanon since the ceasefire, he said.
How will Friday’s events affect the ceasefire?
Before and after the rare strike in Beirut, Israel hammered southern Lebanon with airstrikes, and officials said it would continue to do so.
“We will not allow firing on our communities, not even a trickle,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. “We will attack everywhere in Lebanon, against any threat to the state of Israel, and we will ensure that all our residents in the north return to their homes safely.”
Without peace in the northern Israel area of the Galilee, Defense Minister Israel Katz said, “there will be no peace in Beirut."
Hage Ali said Israel has been emboldened by the “carte blanche” it has received from the Trump administration to strike when and where it pleases in Lebanon despite the ceasefire.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, does not appear to be in a position to return to sustained fighting.
“Its deterrence is gone. The Israelis are not scared of Hezbollah anymore,” Blanford said. “This is the big change between before October 2023 and now.”
But Hage Ali said that if Israel continues to take an aggressive stance in Lebanon, it could eventually backfire and “at some point, we’re going to see an implosion of the ceasefire.”
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Associated Press Writer Julia Frankel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.