MADISON, Wis. – Turnout during the first week of early voting ahead of Wisconsin's pivotal state Supreme Court race is far exceeding levels from another high-stakes election just two years ago, the latest sign of the intense interest in a contest that has obliterated spending records and drawn attention from President Donald Trump and his billionaire adviser, Elon Musk.
As of Tuesday, with just a week to go until the final day of voting, nearly 48% more early ballots have been cast compared with the same point two years ago, according to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission. More than 345,000 voters had returned ballots, either by mail or in person, compared with about 233,000 at this point two years ago during another race for a Supreme Court seat.
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The election will determine whether the court will remain under 4-3 liberal control or flip to a conservative majority. One of the current liberal justices is retiring.
This year's race has morphed into a proxy battle over the nation’s politics, with Trump and Musk getting behind Brad Schimel, the Republican-backed candidate in a race that is officially nonpartisan.
“All Voters who believe in Common Sense should GET OUT TO VOTE EARLY for Brad Schimel,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post late last week.
Total spending on the race has reached more than $81 million, including more than $17 million by groups funded by Musk, according to a tally Tuesday by the Brennan Center for Justice. That's the most on record for any U.S. judicial race, breaking the $56 million spent on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court contest in 2023, when majority control also was on the line.
Musk himself has given the Wisconsin Republican Party $3 million this year, which it can then forward to Schimel's campaign or spend on the race itself.
All that spending and attention has helped fuel early voting, said Kevin Kennedy, Wisconsin's former top elections official who now works as a consultant. He spoke while taking a break from working at a Madison poll site where people could vote early.
“There’s just a lot of money being invested,” Kennedy said. “Everything seems to be focused on, ‘Let’s get out the vote.’”
After previously being critical of early voting, Trump and the Republican Party are urging their supporters to cast their ballots before the final day of voting on April 1. Early voting ends Sunday. The strategy, which they deployed with great success in last year's presidential race, appears to be contributing to large turnout increases in more conservative counties across Wisconsin.
Schimel's opponent, Democratic-backed Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford, has raised more than $25 million for the race to date, including $5.5 million from the state Democratic Party since early February. Her supporters include billionaire Democratic megadonor George Soros and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
Schimel, a Waukesha County judge, had raised more than $12 million, which includes more than $6 million from the Wisconsin Republican Party since early February.
But outside groups have more than made up the difference in what the candidates have raised.
The roughly $32 million spent by the candidates as of Monday was far exceeded by the roughly $49 million spent so far by outside groups, according to the Brennan Center calculation. Schimel and his allies, which include groups backed by Musk, have spent about $46 million, while Crawford and her supporters have spent about $36 million.
Voters in Wisconsin do not register by political party, so it's impossible to know how many of the ballots already submitted came from Republicans or Democrats. But the data shows that the largest increases are coming from both Democratic- and Republican-heavy counties.
Milwaukee County, the state's largest county and the one that is home to the most Democrats, led all counties in ballots returned with 54,750. That is more than 46% ahead of this point two years ago. Liberal Dane County, the state's second largest county and home to the state capital of Madison and the University of Wisconsin, has also seen a 46% increase.
But Republican parts of the state also have seen big jumps.
Voting was up in the three suburban Milwaukee counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, which are commonly referred to as the WOW counties. Ballot returns were up more than 62% in Waukesha and 51% in Ozaukee. In Washington, the most heavily Republican of the three counties, early voting was more than double two years ago.
In Brown County, the state's fourth most populous one, which is reliably Republican, early turnout was up more than 34%.
While the early voting is high for a spring election, it's far from what battleground Wisconsin saw at this point before the presidential race. A week before the Nov. 5 election, nearly 1 million voters had cast their ballots, almost four times as many as in this race to date.
The race comes as the Wisconsin Supreme Court is expected to rule on abortion rights, congressional redistricting, union power and voting rules.
On Monday night, Democratic U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told supporters that electing Crawford was important so she and other liberal justices can order a redraw of congressional boundary lines. Even though Wisconsin is a swing state, Republican-drawn lines have allowed the party to hold six of its eight congressional seats.
“As soon as possible, we need to be able to revisit that and have fair lines,” Jeffries said in a live discussion on the social media platform X. “The only way for that to be even a significant possibility is if you have an enlightened Supreme Court.”
Schimel has accused Crawford of promising to Democrats that she will redraw the lines. Crawford has denied that.