Election night on Tuesday will understandably be a big focus for communities and states across the country, with local elections comprising most of the attention in a 2023 election sans of races for prominent national offices.
But in terms of the bigger picture nationally, people should without question pay attention to election races that will determine the House of Delegates and Senate in Virginia.
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It’s not hyperbole to say that whatever happens in Virginia could determine the course of the 2024 presidential election, and possibly the tenor of government years beyond that.
All 100 seats in the House of Delegates and all 40 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. So, why is all that a big deal nationally and for the 2024 presidential race?
It’s a big deal because of all the smoke circling about Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin making a late run for president on the Republican ticket.
Many prominent and rich Republican donors are cool on former President Donald Trump’s prospects with all his legal battles.
Those donors are equally unimpressed with the other Republican candidates currently in the race and are eyeing Youngkin as their candidate to promote and push in the primary.
Billionaire Thomas Peterffy said in a Forbes article that he and “several tens” of other Republican billionaires and donors have been urging Youngkin to run, and a “Red Vest” retreat held by Youngkin in Virginia Beach a couple of weeks ago to raise funds for this year’s state elections featured several millionaires and billionaires wanting to coerce Youngkin into the presidential race.
This is where Tuesday becomes critical.
Republicans have a majority in the House of Delegates, and are two seats short of a majority in the Senate.
If Republicans rule election night and earn a majority in both chambers of Virginia’s state government after Democrats have primarily reigned in recent years, it will be viewed as a boon for Youngkin to turn a blue state red in his two years as governor and be a springboard to enter the presidential race.
If Youngkin enters the race, he becomes a younger and viable alternative to poll-leading Trump who’ll have lots of donor cash behind him.
Of note, if Youngkin does decide to run, his late entry will create some hurdles such as meeting ballot deadlines in certain states and rallying up votes in such a short time before primaries in February, according to the Associated Press.
However, that doesn’t seem to be scaring off all the donors waiting to back Youngkin.
Knowing Youngkin might pose more of a threat to Biden than Trump with his legal issues, Democrats in turn might want to try and convince Biden to step aside from the race and let a younger Plan B of their own emerge.
Given that, Virginia on Tuesday will be more than just for lovers, as the state slogan states. It could very well be the state that determines the course of next year’s presidential election and who runs the White House for years to come.