DORAL, Fla. – Ahead of former President Donald Trump’s rally at his namesake golf property in Doral on Tuesday, speculation is swirling around who he’ll select as his running mate.
Trump’s vice presidential pick may likely be the GOP frontrunner in four years to replace him should Trump win re-election this November.
Charles Zelden, professor of History and Politics at NOVA Southeastern University, provided some insight.
“Because no one on the shortlist (of VP picks) comes from a swing state, it appears he is looking at something beyond help in the race,” said Zelden. “I think Trump feels he can win it on his own, so what does he want from the vice president? Given what Trump generally wants, he wants personal loyalty.”
Zelden on why a rally in Doral: “To remind people he is out there running, that he is energetic, that he can handle the heat of South Florida and Biden can’t. All of that goes into the calculation of why they are doing this. It also happens to be close to home for him, so it is an easy one for him to do. Let’s face it, if he wins Miami-Dade, then for sure he wins Florida.”
Zelden on Florida’s abortion access ballot question: “With the abortion access amendment on the ballot, there is the possibility (of) more of a turnout of voters on the Democratic side, but probably not enough for Trump to lose, but why take a chance, could also be part of their calculation.”
Zelden on Trump’s eventual VP selection: “As his heir apparent, (he) will likely pick somebody who he thinks is going to be loyal and will continue what he has done in the years that follows, or loyally step down and allow a member of his family to run -- who knows with Trump. But likely his first objective in a running mate is someone who does what he tells them to do. Loyalty is clearly number one because none of the people he has on his short list come from a swing state. They are there because he believes they will do what he wants, how he wants, and how he wants it to be done -- to be loyal to him.”
“The Constitution makes it very clear the president only has two 4-year terms in office, 10 years if he takes over for a president who dies while in office and he is the vice president,” said Zelden.
But what about the possibility of Trump becoming vice president after four years to whoever his 2024 VP ends up being, should that person get the GOP nomination in 2028?
“The amendment only says a president can only serve two terms in office, but it doesn’t say anything about vice president, but I don’t see him taking this secondary position. It is not like we have this president and a prime minister, where you have a political leader and a national leader and you can jump between the two offices like Putin did in Russia,” Zelden added.
On the speculated shortlist, Zelden named Senator J.D. Vance, of Ohio, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
“When he makes those decisions, no matter who he picks, then those conversations will happen regarding whoever he picks,” said Rubio.
To qualify, Rubio would need to move to a different state to bypass a provision in the Constitution the way Dick Cheney moved from Texas to Wyoming to serve as George W. Bush’s running mate in July of 2000.
“The 12th Amendment says that you cannot have a president and vice president from the same state,” said Zelden. “However, it is as simple as Marco Rubio changing his state of residency, but to do that he would have to resign his seat in the Senate and then move to, let’s say Georgia, and once he establishes residency in a different state, he can do it. This is what happened to Dick Cheney.”
Zelden said Trump may be delaying an announcement to see if Biden remains at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket.
“Which one he chooses might vary depending on who the Democrats name to replace Biden, if Biden steps down,” Zelden said. “I don’t think Biden wants to step down. It is a question of how much pressure gets put on him. The problem with Biden is that people like him but they don’t love him. They respect him but he doesn’t excite them, and he is unlikely to do so at this stage in his career. That is a problem because he needs to rally the base as well as those who object to Trump for other reasons to show up to vote. What they need is somebody who can start pounding Project 2025, the dangers that Trump poses to democracy in the eyes of the Democratic Party, and basically, follow the pattern we saw in France in which the center-left was able to point out the dangers of Le Pen and it seemed effective. They kept the right from gaining the majority. That is what the Democrats need to be doing to win this race, and I don’t see Biden doing that. He is not on the campaign trail, he is not holding interviews, he is not making his case. That is a problem for the Democrats and it poses a challenge for Trump, how does he respond to that?”