Similar to Bonnie back in June, Julia found its footing shortly before making landfall across Central America during the overnight hours as an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane. And similar to Bonnie in June, Julia may survive the trek through the steep terrain of Central America as a tropical cyclone and reemerge over the Pacific, where, if it did so, it would become only the third storm on record to keep its name on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides (the other storms being Otto in 2016 and Bonnie earlier this year).
Despite an impressive outflow, enough northerly wind shear persisted to thwart the development of a solid core until yesterday evening as Julia neared the coastline of Nicaragua. This likely kept Julia from strengthening much more quickly than it would have otherwise. Nevertheless, the big threat of widespread destructive flooding and mudslides remains. The strong winds pushing rich tropical air up the mountainsides in Central America will enhance the already tremendous rainfall accompanying Julia. Over a foot of rain is forecast from Nicaragua and El Salvador to Guatemala and Costa Rica into early next week.
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If Julia survives into the Pacific, it’s expected to be short-lived as it parallels the rugged terrain along the Pacific coast of Mexico. The official forecast is for Julia to gradually unravel over the next few days.
Behind Julia we anticipate a nice lull in activity as the season begins to wind down. Some of our forecast models show the possibility of our first big fall cold front clearing South Florida by next weekend. While there’s still uncertainty as to whether or not that happens, as a general forecast rule, once the first strong cold front clears South Florida we start to breathe a little easier for the rest of the hurricane season. The progression of strong fronts deep into the Gulf increases storm-busting wind shear along the vulnerable U.S. coastline, reducing the odds of threatening storms – something we can all look forward to after the last several weeks.
