Potential Tropical Cyclone Four over the western Gulf moved ashore shortly after sunset yesterday with little fanfare. The disturbance, which exhibited some bluster while over the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, succumbed to increasingly hostile upper winds by late yesterday afternoon and largely collapsed by the time it reached the northern reaches of Mexico and Deep South Texas. Although it brought a surge of deep tropical moisture, rainfall totals so far have been largely underwhelming, though the threat for locally heavy rainfall will continue through today.
This week in the tropics, we’ll be tracking a series of disturbances over the eastern Atlantic. The first disturbance, which moved off Africa yesterday and is now centered near the Cabo Verde Islands, has a low chance of development over the next five days. Its biggest obstacle will be a sharp tongue of nearby dry and stable air that will accompany its moisture envelope westward into the central Atlantic.
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Another disturbance rolling over western Africa today will emerge over the Atlantic by mid-week. This one too will need to be monitored for potential development down the line.
Both disturbances have a long way to go across the wide stretch of the tropical Atlantic before they’re anything for us to worry about on the U.S. mainland. Nevertheless, it’s the time of year when we’ll be monitoring each of these disturbances with a discerning gaze, as even the ones that lay dormant can pose problems later on.
It was 30 years ago this Wednesday that Hurricane Andrew struck near Homestead, leaving a permanent scar on South Florida and all those impacted. Thankfully on the week of this sobering anniversary we can rest easy, with no looming tropical threats to South Florida in the days ahead.