Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends SW to 01S30W. The ITCZ continues from 01S30W to 01S46W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south of 05N between Africa and Brazil.

Gulf Of America

Weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf. Fresh E winds prevail off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and into central portions of the Gulf, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Slight seas prevail across the basin. Scattered showers are occurring over portions of the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area extending from 22N58W to 21N63W to just NE of the Dominican Republic near 20N69W. This feature along with a front moving across the NW Atlantic will continue to allow a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, thus resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse due to nearly stationary high pressure over the E Gulf of America. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure builds again N of the area in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from 31N49W to 21N55W and then westward along the northern shore of Hispaniola and across Cuba. This feature is supporting scattered to isolated moderate convection. Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of convection are possible. Fresh winds and 8-10 ft seas are also seen on either side of the trough N of 28N between 40-60W. Fresh to strong N winds and locally rough seas are also seen E of 20W between 15N and 25N. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate to locally fresh or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from 22N58W to 21N63W to just NE of the Dominican Republic near 20N69W. This feature will remain in place through Sun and gradually dissipate by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will continue to support moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas to 9 ft over the NE offshore waters through Sun. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front N of 27N.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams