Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 13 ft off Colombia Sat night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFEP2. shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the trough axis.

Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the southern half of the wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W. The ITCZ extends from 08N28W to 07N44W, then continues from 07N47W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 13N and east of 20W.

Gulf Of America

A few showers are evident across the NW and central Gulf waters, while diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed over western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula are moving across the nearshore waters. The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 26N and east of 95W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a rather weak ridge axis extending westward from the Atlantic across the Gulf along 28N will change little through the next few days. The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N, and mostly light to gentle southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N through the period. Winds become mostly light and variable starting Mon over the north-central and NE Gulf. Occasional fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night into next week.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Friday and weekend.

Divergence aloft is supporting showers and isolated over the western Caribbean and the western Greater Antilles. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic continues to dominate the Caribbean. Outside of the Gale Warning area, strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas are found across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage and the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early next week. A pair of tropical waves will move across the basin through Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad upper level low centered over the central Bahamas is enhancing some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity south of 25N and west of 70W. A plume of Saharan dust and dry mid-latitude air cover much of the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

An expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, anchored by a 1026 mb high center at 28N44W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of 24N and between 72W and 77W. Seas of 5-8 ft in these waters. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and moderate winds are evident north of 29N and west of 50W. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 23N and east of 45W. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and east of 27W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 28N will change little through the period. The weather pattern will generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado