Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, south of 15N, and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends southwestward to near 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm N of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Numerous moderate to isolated scattered moderate convection generated from outflow boundaries associated with earlier thunderstorms over Texas, is impacting waters within 90 nm of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. This activity is bringing locally higher winds and seas. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the north-central Gulf will change little during the next few days. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of winds pulsing to fresh to strong speeds from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high centered near 32N60W and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds over over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central portion of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough is over the waters NE of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A cold front extends from 31N32W to 26N54W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters S of 25N and west of 60W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range S of 25N and W of 60W, as well as S of 20N and W of 50W. Rough seas follow the cold front mentioned above that has ushered in a set of NW swell. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the waters roughly between the Bahamas and 70W through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through Fri. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL