Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving over the NW Gulf this evening. The front will continue to move quickly SE through the basin and exit by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon night. Gale force winds are forecast to begin at 10/1200 UTC and end 11/03 UTC. Peak seas off Veracruz are forecast to build to 15 ft by Mon evening. Otherwise, there is a potential for gusts to gale force winds over the northern and western Gulf through Mon morning, and over the central, southern and eastern basin through late Mon night. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending over the southeastern United States through the northwestern Gulf of America will emerge in the western Atlantic later tonight. NW gales and very rough seas are expected N of 29N Mon night through Tue behind the front, with locations to the south having strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas after the front passes. The front will move SE and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Tue, then extend from 31N55W to The Turks and Caicos by Wed. As the front weakens and stalls by the middle of the week, winds and seas will gradually diminish.

Significant Rainfall over Central America: A shearline is expected to form early on Mon over the NW Caribbean Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south on Monday, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in enhanced moisture convergence. A potent cold front will then arrive in Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, after which it will become stationary and linger across the region through Thursday. Significant rainfall over the course of several days will be possible as a result, and will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 12N16W and continues southwestward to near 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 14N between 17W and 31W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for additional information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of America.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to the U. S. Mexico border near 25N97W. Strong to near-gale force winds are occurring over the northern and northwestern Gulf along and behind the cold front. Moderate N to NW winds are noted over the rest of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the south-central basin ahead of the front. Locally rough seas are noted north of the cold front, with slight seas occurring elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a strong cold front that extends from the Florida Panhandle to the U. S. Mexico border this afternoon will race southeast tonight and exit the basin Mon. Strong to near gale- force N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning into Mon night. Some gale force wind gusts may occur over the northern and western Gulf through Mon morning, and over the central, southern and eastern basin through late Mon night. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening as high pressure settle southward into the region.

Caribbean Sea

The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting scattered moderate convection, across the offshore waters of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A surface trough extends over eastern Hispaniola into the central Caribbean near 15N70W, and isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near this trough. Otherwise, a prevalent ridge extending across the basin continues to tighten the gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh trades and moderate seas to 8 ft in these regions. Locally strong winds have developed offshore of northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia. Moderate or weaker trades are ongoing in the NW basin with slight seas.

For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Rough seas in east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will gradually subside through Mon night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Mon, bringing strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas in its wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue and gradually weaken through Wed evening. Aside from the strong winds and seas, the front will support the development of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent waters through at least Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 30. 5N77. 5W southwestward through central Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing offshore of NE and central Florida. Farther east, isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near a surface trough extending from 30. 5N63W to 28N67. 5W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High that is anchored by a 1028 mb high near 34N39W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds dominate the open Atlantic waters. A long-period NW swell is supporting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 17N and east of 50W. Farther south, rough seas in E swell prevails east of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong SW winds will develop offshore NE Florida by late this evening, ahead of a cold front that will push off the SE U. S. late tonight. The front will move SE and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Tue, then extend from 31N55W to The Turks and Caicos by Wed. NW gales and very rough seas are expected N of 29N Mon night through Tue behind the front, with locations to the south having strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas after the front passes. As the front weakens and stalls by the middle of the week, winds and seas will gradually diminish.

Posted 7 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster ADAMS