Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ mainly W of 26W.

Gulf Of America

A frontal boundary extends along the NW Gulf states coastline enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 27N and W of 90W. Gentle to moderate S winds are occurring across the basin. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over much of the Gulf via altimeter and buoy data, with 2 to 3 ft seas prevailing over the northeast basin.

For the forecast, the front will continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms across the NW Gulf tonight before dissipating on Mon. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Bermuda High will remain in the Gulf through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SW winds basin-wide, pusling to between fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. Another, but stronger cold front may impact the northwestern Gulf Wed night, before moving across the basin through Thu night with increasing winds and seas behind it.

Caribbean Sea

A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north is supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean as noted via recent scatterometer data. Strong winds are occurring in the south-central basin and south of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail over the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to near gale- force during the nighttime hours through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon evening. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical Atlantic, supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds south of 27N. Pockets of strong trade winds are noted via scatterometer data east of the Lesser Antilles. Rough seas in E swell are noted via buoy and altimeter data in this region as well as north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the remnants of a frontal boundary are analyzed as a surface trough, extending from 30N32W to 25N36W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh N to NE winds occurring north of the trough, with strong winds and rough seas occurring near 31W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a strong pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high to the north near 35N20W and lower pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through midweek, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold front. That front may move offshore by early Thu, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA