Tropical Waves

A new tropical waves has emerged off the coast of West Africa. This wave is near 17W, S of 11. 5N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is depicted from 02. 5N to 10N and east of 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 44W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 57W and 61W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends SW to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 20W and 34. 5W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east winds prevail across the Gulf, except north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh to locally strong easterly winds prevail. Seas 2 to 5 ft prevail across the basin, except for seas 5 to 6 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend. It will enhance the gradient with the surface ridge, causing fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and west-central Gulf. It will also trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas across the same area into Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is depicted west of 80W. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure around TD Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over central and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a building ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic and T. D. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador will sustain fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas from the south- central to northwestern basin into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening frontal boundary extends from 31N52W across the northern waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the front from 29N58W to 21N70W, with a weak 1016 mb surface low along the trough near 26N62W. Isolated moderate convection is near the low along the trough. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 40N26W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. South of 20N, and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 25W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, The low will dissipate as it moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary currently along 28N will dissipate overnight. The Atlantic ridge will then build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through early next week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV