Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 28W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough, from 02N to 08N between 22W and 33W.

A tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16. 5N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted on either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 11. 5N between 59W and 66W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 72W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level low center to its W, producing scattered moderate convection from 10N to 19N between 70W and 80W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 86W, south of 20N to across western Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. Most of the convection related to this wave is over the EPAC.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14. 5N17W, and continues southwestward to 04. 5N31W. The ITCZ extends from 04. 5N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50. 5W. Other than the convection associated with two tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed near the coast of W Africa, covering the waters from 02N to 11. 5N and east of 22W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure located over the western Atlantic just E of Bermuda extends a ridge across the SE of United States, including N Florida, and into the NE Gulf region. This system is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds east of 90W, with seas 2 to 3 ft, while moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas 4 to 6 ft prevail west of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is seen across the western Gulf, west of 94W.

For the forecast, broad high pressure offshore the SE coast of the U. S. will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds in the north-central and NE Gulf, and moderate to fresh E to winds over most of the western half of the basin through Mon night, with slight to moderate seas. Stronger western Atlantic ridging will then expand westward across the northern Gulf starting on Tue providing for mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds south of about 26N and west of 87W, and in the far southeastern Gulf section through Thu, with slight to moderate seas. A trough, or low pressure may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south central or southwestern portions of the Gulf, from late Thu through Fri night, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms and fresh to strong winds and building seas. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche at night through Wed attendant by fresh to strong winds and slight to moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details, including any associated significant convection.

Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered SW of the Azores extends a ridge to the SE Bahamas. This pattern supports moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas to 6 ft across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted. An upper level trough over the west-central Caribbean is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Passage, between Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central Caribbean south of 17N between 68W and 82W. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the the majority of the basin tonight. As the ridge begins to strengthen N of the region Mon, expect an increase of the trade winds to fresh to strong speeds starting early Mon evening in the central and northwestern sections of the basin, and lasting through the rest of the period. Trade winds of fresh speeds are expected over the eastern section of the basin starting Wed night. The trade winds in the northwestern part of the basin are expected to become fresh to strong, predominately southeast in direction, beginning on Wed as a trough, or low pressure may shift northward or northwestward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south-central or southwestern portions of the Gulf of America.

Atlantic Ocean

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details including any related significant convection.

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from near 30N67W to the central Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are along and ahead of this trough, affecting the SE Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and northern Hispaniola. A 1022 mb high pressure located just E of Bermuda extends a ridge W-SW and to the north of this trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 34N32W. Under the influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 48W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas are found north of 20N and east of 44W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to 7 ft are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough from 30N67W through the SE Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move into the north- central waters Tue, then stall near 27N through Wed, and gradually dissipate by Thu. High pressure will shift eastward in the wake of the front, to the north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with ridging extending into southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight seas west of 64W, and moderate seas east of 64W. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, and westward to the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba beginning late Wed night. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling