Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 07N17. 5W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17. 5W to 02N32W to 02N47W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 00N to 15N between 20W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 38W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from central Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters E of 94W, with light to gentle winds W of 94W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range E of 88W, and 2-3 ft W of 88W.

For the forecast, the front will drift southeastward this evening before dissipating tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds will occur in the eastern Bay of Campeche and offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next cold front will enter the northern Gulf on Sun, with increasing winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Strong E winds will pulse in the central basin, and winds may reach near-gale force at times offshore of northern Colombia. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages into the eastern basin through this weekend. A cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean by early next week, with increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

Atlantic Ocean

A two cold fronts extend across the SW North Atlantic discussion waters. The first front enters the waters near 31N69W and extends SW to near 27N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this front. The second cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N74W and extends SW to central Florida. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N east of the first front to near 60W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 29N west of this front. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range. Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near 31N22W to 30N39W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are N of this front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are found S of 22N between 30W and 60W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold fronts will rapidly progress eastward into the central Atlantic through Fri, and widespread strong to locally near-gale force SW winds will occur ahead of the front, generally north of 28N and east of 70W into Fri afternoon. Near and to the west of the cold fronts, fresh to locally strong W to NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from offshore of Florida to 70W through late tonight. Rough seas associated with this storm system are expected north of 27N, with seas slowly subsiding from west to east into this weekend. Elsewhere in the central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail through Fri morning, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough seas this weekend. The next cold front will push off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with increasing winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Posted about 9 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL