Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N40W to 27. 5N60. 5W, where a 1014 mb low center has formed, with the remnant frontal trough continuing through the SE Bahamas. A 1026 mb Bermuda High is centered north of the area along 69W. The pressure gradient between the high and these features is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds, with strong winds to around 30 kt occurring within 240 nm NW of the low center. The low is expected to move slowly E-NE today, with gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center later this morning through Fri morning, as the low deepens. Winds across the NW semicircle are expected to increase to near 45 kt late this afternoon and evening, when seas will peak near 19 ft or 6. 0 m. The low will then stall Fri and begin to gradually weaken before slowly exiting the forecast area to the north Sat morning. A large area of 12 ft seas in northeasterly swell will cover the area from 27N northward between 54W and 60W this evening through Fri morning before slowly diminishing.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information this event.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near 07N11W and then runs west-southwestward to 05. 5N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05. 5N15W to 04N37W to 01N48W. Convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ appears to also be influenced by an upper level low near 16N34W, with a large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring E of 35W between the Equator and 12N.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered showers across the Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Gulf Of America

Derived satellite imagery shows patches of fog forming over portions of the northern Gulf waters generally within 60 NM of the coast. Mariners should be aware of the potential for reductions in visibility. A surface trough is analyzed in the far W Gulf along the Mexican coast, with another surface trough analyzed from the Yucatan Channel into the N central Gulf near 28N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near both of these trough axes. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft across much of the Gulf east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail W of 90W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic and a surface trough across the E central Gulf will produce fresh to strong S to SE winds today across the eastern Gulf that will shift northward into the Florida Big Bend late this afternoon and diminish. Otherwise, winds across the rest of the basin will veer to the S and SW today ahead of the next cold front, which is forecast to move into the NW Gulf this evening. The front will then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Brownsville, Texas by Fri morning, from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. High pressure will move into the NE Gulf Sat afternoon through Sun.

Caribbean Sea

The southern end of a surface trough is causing scattered showers across the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, a typical trade- wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the central and eastern Caribbean as well as off the south coast of Cuba, with areas offshore NW Colombia seeing fresh to strong NE winds and seas 7 to 8 ft. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu night as high pressure shifts eastward across the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Fri. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin Thu into the weekend to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central and southwest Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western and central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N40W to 27. 5N60. 5W, where a 1014 mb low center has formed, with the remnant frontal trough continuing through the SE Bahamas. A 1026 mb Bermuda High is centered north of the area along 69W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident N of 26N between 50W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1027 mb high is centered across the eastern Atlantic near 29N26W, and extends a ridge across the basin to 60W. Accordingly, scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong trades and 7-11 ft seas across much of the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. The exceptions are N of 25N to the aforementioned frontal boundaries between 22W and 52W, withing the high pressure ridge, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are also observed south of the frontal remnant trough in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure of 1014 mb has developed near 27. 5N60. 5W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward through the SE Bahamas. A 1026 mb Bermuda High is north of the area along 69W and is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas north and northwest of the front and low. The low pressure is expected to become better organized and deepen today as it moves slowly E-NE across the far NE zones. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center later this morning through Fri morning, increasing to strong gales this evening, before the low begins to slowly weaken and gradually exits the forecast area Sat morning. The next cold front will move into the NW waters Fri afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front may move into the NW waters Sun night.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling