Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to near 01S37W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm on either side of these features.

Gulf Of America

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming along the coasts of NE Mexico, TX, and SW LA. Visibility may be reduced in these areas. A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin. With this, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of 87W along with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle to moderate mainly E to SE winds and 1-3 ft seas east of 88W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

Caribbean Sea

Broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated moderate convection across the central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades south of 15N and east of 75W, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area, tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from near 31N68W westward and southwestward to near Cape Canaveral. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N65W to near 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is developing along and about 100 nm ahead of the trough. Scatterometer data confirmed fresh N to NE winds behind the front along with seas building to 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also seen in scatterometer data N of 26N between the pre-frontal trough and 55W. Another cold front is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 31N32W to 23N45W, with a frontal remnant trough extending from 23N45W to near 27N62W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the west end of the pre- frontal trough.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas across much of the Atlantic away from any frontal boundaries are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from 31N68W to central Florida will reach from near 31N59W to 25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the front tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon, moving E of 55W on Sat.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams