Tropical Waves

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near 43W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are along the south end of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near 65W, from 18N southward into central Venezuela. This wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 01N38W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this time. Scattered moderate convection is present along and S of the monsoon trough E of 30W.

Gulf Of America

Surface ridging is dominating the basin, with weak diurnal troughs along the Florida Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh SE winds are E of the trough in the Bay of Campeche, and also in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2 to 5 ft in the western basin, and 3 ft or less in the east.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf into the middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf into early next week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to occasionally strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings into next week.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge N of the region and a 1008 mb low over far northern Colombia is sustaining strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the central to SW basin. Mainly fresh winds with 5 to 8 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the central to eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas in the NW basin. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection has developed within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua due to converging low-level winds and the influence of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Mon night, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along much of this trough. Moderate NE winds prevail north of the trough with gentle to moderate SE to S winds south and east of the trough to about 60W. Otherwise, much of the basin is dominated by ridging stemming from high pressure north of the region. This is leading to widespread moderate to fresh easterly winds, with moderate seas. S of 12N and W of 40W, rough seas in a mix of wind waves and easterly swell prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into Sun. A weak trough extending from 31N62W to the Bahamas will weaken today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place elsewhere into the middle of next week.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams