Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N-07N between 23W-34W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found along the wave axis from 08N-12N between 60W-64W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 72W, south of 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 10N22W to 06N30W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is present at this time.

Gulf Of America

1021 mb high pressure is centered over the north-central Gulf near 29N87W. A trough is over the Bay of Campeche in the far southwest Gulf along 92W south of 22N. Moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the western Gulf with gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Various observations over southern Mexico including Veracruz are showing minor limitations to visibility due to haze.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf region while a weak cold front is forecast to reach the NE Gulf late tonight into Tue with little impact in winds and seas. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. A concurrent altimeter pass confirmed seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few thunderstorms are active across Trinidad into the far northeast part of Venezuela associated with a tropical wave moving past the Windward Islands. No significant convection is evident elsewhere over the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands near 24N65W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain active within 90 to 240 nm southeast of an associated surface trough extending from 25N63W to 19N70W. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by the subtropical ridge north of 20N, interrupted only by a surface trough along roughly 45W from 20N to 25N. This pattern is supporting moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas north of 20N, east of 35W. It is also supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics east of 35W with 5-7 ft seas, except near 8 ft southeast of Barbados. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, while most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the late afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. A weak cold front located off of the SE United States coast will extend from 31N72W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system in the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some tropical development as the system drifts southward and then westward before conditions become even less favorable later this week. Currently, the forecast keeps the low just N of 30N through Wed.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen