Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea- Bissau just south of Bissau, then reaches southward to 05N17W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 05N17W across 00N38W to near the Amazon Delta region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A ridge extends southwestward from a 1022 mb high near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche northward to near 24N. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and 1 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will allow fresh to strong winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through Sun night. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon. Fresh SE winds are expected ahead of the front over the northwestern and west-central Gulf beginning on Fri.

Caribbean Sea

A mid to upper-level low is enhancing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic and ABC Islands. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is seen across much of Caribbean Sea. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident at the lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the west of 95N, upper-level low will move slowly westward and weaken through Sat. This feature will disrupt the typical pressure pattern across the basin during this time. Expect fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia at night through Fri night, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected there during the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through early today. Winds and seas will generally diminish across the basin as the trough passes north of the area Fri through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A mid to upper-level trough curves southwestward from southeast of Bermuda through 40N00S to northern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 23N between 57W and 71W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1025 mb and a 1026 mb highs near 33N50W is dominating much of the Atlantic with light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas north of 26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther south from 20N to 26N between 35W and the Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough will drift west toward the Turks and Caicos Islands today, remain nearly stationary through Fri while gradually weakening, then drift farther westward and dissipate through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will persist west of the trough across the southeast Bahamas through this morning, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will build into the area from the east following the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon.

Chan Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster