Special Features

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning in effect for the marine zones of Agadir through 14/06Z, while the Gale Warning that was in effect for Tarfaya ended at 14/00Z per their latest forecast. These conditions are due to the pressure gradient between high pressure located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands and relatively lower pressures in NW Africa with troughing in place just inland. Also, expect severe gusts, very rough seas in long period NW swell. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website at https: //wwmiws. wmo. int. for more information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then continues SSW to near 00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to across portions of northern Brazil, terminating near 02S49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 32W and 50W. Meanwhile, a convergence line or boundary is analyzed just N of the monsoon trough, from 05. 5N18W to 04N28W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along and near the boundary.

Gulf Of America

A 1025 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf near Apalachee Bay at 29N85W. A weak surface trough is diffusing in the SW Gulf. Another surface trough has developed diurnally over the Yucatan Peninsula resulting in fresh to strong winds along the coast and just offshore. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are flowing through the Straits of Florida to western Cuba to just N of the Yucatan Channel along with 5-7 ft seas, with moderate to fresh winds in the S-central Gulf. These winds are due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the NE Gulf high and a Bermuda high, combined with an old frontal boundary and lower pressures near the Greater Antilles. Mainly moderate E-SE flow dominates the remainder of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf coastal waters, and 3-5 ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the west-central Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf. This will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Fri. Expect stronger winds to pulse across the SE part of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through Tue, and off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed, driven by local effects associated with a thermal trough.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front over the Atlantic that reaches northern Hispaniola and a pre-frontal trough are helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean N of 16N and E of 74W. High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades off and along NW Colombia, where seas are 7-9 ft. Similar winds are found in the Lee of Cuba, through the approach of the Windward Passage, and just S of the Dominican Republic. Moderate to locally fresh winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft across the approach to the Windward Passage, 3-5 ft in the eastern and N-central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Wed night as well. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about Gale Warnings off Morocco.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a frontal boundary across the central Atlantic. A cold front enters the basin near new to 27N53W. A weakening stationary front is from that point to a 1013 mb low pres near 20N65W to 20N71W. Bermuda High pressure follows the front and extends a ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of America. Fresh to near-gale NE winds and seas of 7-11 ft are found near and behind the low/fronts per recent ASCAT scatterometer data and sea observations, except weaker winds farther from the features N of 29N and W of 70W where gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails. E of the front, high pressure of 1027 mb located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic region. Fresh to strong N-NE winds surround the Meteo-France Gale Warning discussed above, with these winds N of 20N and E of 20W. Seas are 7-11 ft N of 10N and E of 32W, except high in the Gale area. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere from 07N to 22N and E of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, convection will continue along a stationary front that is devolving into a surface trough N of Puerto Rico. The trough will drift west toward Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas into late week. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist W of the trough, with conditions gradually improving toward the end of the week as the trough weakens.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky