Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through today, and over the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the night-time hours tonight and again Wed night. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/1200 UTC at least. Very rough seas are likely with these winds. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https: //wwmiws. wmo. int for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 02N to 05N between 13W and 17W, and from 00N to 02N between 40W and 45W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic and across the northern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds and 3-5 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle breezes and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the basin will prevail through Wed night. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the basin through Fri night. In the wake of the front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will build to 7 to 10 ft through Thu night with conditions improving thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Recent buoy observations and overnight scatterometer satellite data confirm fresh to strong winds off Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela, and off Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident elsewhere, except gentle to moderate breezes over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are 7-9 ft off Colombia, 5-7 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 over the northwest Caribbean. A sharp upper trough extending from the Turks and Caicos Islands to Costa Rica is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms around Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through today, and the central basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night-time hours tonight and Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will linger in the S-central Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered east of Bermuda to the coast of northeast Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas south of 24N and west of 60W, and gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. Farther east, a surface trough is along roughly 42W from 20N to 30N, associated with an upper low over that area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low and surface trough are active from 22N to 26N between 35W and 45W. Divergent flow aloft is also supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 14N to 20N between 25W and 30W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7-10 ft seas are active east of the trough, north of 20N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin east of 60W, except for fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic west of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Wed, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through this afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That front will move offshore Thu night with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across the basin for the end of the week into the weekend.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen