Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal waters. Seas are forecast to build to around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough is confined to inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 180 nm of the axis west of 35W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a developing Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from across the NE Gulf coastal waters to along the southern Louisiana coast to the central Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and just south of the boundary. Otherwise, 1013 mb high pressure is positioned in the SE Gulf near Key West, Florida with a ridge extending west-northwestward. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found south of 25N and west of 87W, along with 3-5 ft seas. NE-E 15 kt winds are within the SW Louisiana and Texas coastal waters along with 2-4 ft seas. Mainly gentle variable winds are across the remainder of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3-5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf through this afternoon, locally strong near Yucatan this evening. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal waters. Seas are forecast to build to around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine conditions should significantly improve early next week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between 1014 mb high pressure just east of the Central Bahamas and 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northern Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are about 5-7 ft in these areas. Moderate to fresh easterly trades are found elsewhere from 11N to 15N, along with 4-6 ft seas. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras, along with 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate easterly trade winds prevail across the remainder of the basin with seas of 2-4 ft, except 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N over the SW Caribbean, supported by a mid to upper- level trough persisting across the NW Caribbean. Additional moisture from there feeds into a frontal trough extending from the central Atlantic southwestward to across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to south of Hispaniola near 15N72W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night, stalling just north of there into Mon. This will temporarily and slight weaken the pressure gradient and winds.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front along 31N between 76W and 1010 mb low pressure near Jacksonville, Florida is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 74W. 1014 mb high pressure just east of the Central Bahamas near 25N71W extends an east to west ridge. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters west 55W with 4-7 ft seas, highest near 55W. To the east, a dissipating cold front passes through 31N35W to 24N47W continuing to across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a remnant trough, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the features. This front wraps into an occluded 1003 mb low pressure area north of the waters near 35N42W. Associated moderate to fresh SW-W winds are found across the waters north of 23N, roughly between 30W and 50W. Seas are 6-9 ft across this area in NW-N swell. 1017 mb high pressure is to the southeast near 26N26W with a ridge reaching from near the Canary Islands southwestward through the high to near 20N50W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters along with 4-7 ft seas in mainly NW-N swell, with locally fresh winds from 10N to 22N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front just north of 31N and west of 76W will progress into the offshore waters and weaken as it moves across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through tonight to E of 55W Sat. Another front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N68W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede the front Sat and Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through Mon, along with locally rough seas near 31N. The remnants of the front should wash out Tue and Tue night with improving marine conditions.

Posted less than a minute ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky