Special Features

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic near 31N46W to the Leeward Islands to the northern coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front to about 70W. Large NW swell behind this front is producing 12 to 16 ft seas across the western and central Atlantic, between 40W and 70W and N of 24N. The cold front will move eastward across the central and eastern Atlantic, reaching NW Africa Thu evening. Large long- period NW swell in the wake of the front will continue to produce 12 to 15 ft seas, affecting the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters through Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 04N20W to 01S47W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 07N and E of 27W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1029 mb high to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating the entire Gulf. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and lower pressure over N Texas and central United States is supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds over the western Gulf including the Bay of Campeche, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure located over north Florida dominates the Gulf region supporting fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western part of the basin, and moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the SE and SW parts of the Gulf. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail. The fresh to strong winds in the western part of the basin will persist through late today. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area from W to E Thu night into Fri as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from the Leeward Islands to northern Colombia. Strong to near-gale force NW winds and rough seas are occurring behind the front to about 60W, including the northern Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the NW Caribbean with 6-9 ft seas between Jamaica and E Honduras. In the SE Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate and seas of 3-6 ft. A surface trough extends north from the Colombia Low, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the northern Leeward Islands to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W where it is helping to induce scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are noted in the wake of the front, which is forecast to dissipate late tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture associated with this frontal boundary will remain and move westward across the central Caribbean today and tonight, reaching the coast of Nicaragua on Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, bringing fresh to strong N winds and building seas. The front will move quickly across the basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night into Fri while weakening. On Sat, fresh to strong N winds will persist in the SW Caribbean, including offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event.

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 20N65W where it becomes stationary and continues SW across the Mona Passage to NW Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 24N. In addition to the seas described above, rough seas are also N of 15N between 38W and 74W. Another weakening cold front extends from the coastal border of Mauritania and Western Sahara to near 23N35W. Rough seas are analyzed behind this front and E of 32W. The remainder basin is under the influence of surface ridging and devoid of convection. Over the tropical waters, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate to rough.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N46W to the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 25N. Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of the front. Rough seas are ahead of the front. The north part of the front will continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front, which is forecast to extend from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 25N55W to Puerto Rico on Sat.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Adams