Special Features

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends from E Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: Another cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. An associated complex area of low pressure will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves from the SE U. S. into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of the Gulf basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz early Sat morning through midday Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening. Very large seas are expected to build behind this front Fri night through Sun, reaching 15 to 18 ft across eastern portions of the basin and into the western Florida coastal waters.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N14. 5W and continues southwestward to 04. 5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04. 5N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01. 5S to 05N between 19W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01. 5S to 03N E of 14W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin in 48 hours.

1028 mb high pressure has drifted southeastward into the NW Gulf tonight, centered offshore the Louisiana coast near 29N92. 5W. A surface trough in the central Gulf to near the Yucatan coast, and a coastal trough in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the basin, although any shower activity associated with this convection is very light. The pressure gradient between the high, the central Gulf trough, and a lingering front in the NW Caribbean is producing mostly fresh N winds across the SE Gulf and into the NW Caribbean this morning, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE winds prevail across the Bay of Campeche to the west of the coastal trough, with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh N winds across the SE Gulf will gradually diminish through morning, as the front in the NW Caribbean drifts southward. High pressure over the southern Plains will shift east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front moving off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz early Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.

A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the east coast of Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua, where it has been drifting southward overnight. Stratocumulus clouds and light showers cover much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States and Gulf of America supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary. Seas remain 7 to 10 ft across much of this area. In the south- central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to strong NE winds S of 13. 5N to the coast of Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across the NW Gulf of America is starting to shift eastward. Fresh to strong N winds will prevail across NW portions behind the front through this evening, and force it slowly southward, reaching E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, where it will stall and begin to weaken this evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to western Panama Sat evening, from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to NW Colombia Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected behind this front, generating very rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

An Atlantic front is stationary from 31N48W to 1014 mb low pressure near 25N67W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered light to moderate showers are evident along the front and E through NE of the low. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring behind the boundary and south of 27N, except seas of 9 to 10 ft within 120 nm N of the front due to fresh winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-14 ft in NW swell are found north of 27N and east of the front to 35W. North of the stalled front, a reinforcing front is moving southeast of Bermuda, with fresh to locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft in W-NW swell occurring north of 30N and west of 65W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N27W that extends west-southwestward to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of 24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will meander across this area through tonight. High pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front today and tonight, and nudge the front southward to near the Atlantic approach to the Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters Sat morning. Associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of 23. 5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling