Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 02N11W to 02N30W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N southward along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The combination of surface ridging over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over Mexico is resulting in a pressure gradient that is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds basin-wide. Seas are slight east of 86W and moderate elsewhere. The southerly flow in the western Gulf is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico northward. Mariners are advised that this may reduce the visibility in the area. Aside from lower visibility from the smoke mainly over the southwestern portion of the basin, dense fog is ongoing over the northern Gulf waters, east of 86W and north of 28N.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Fri. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south- central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf this weekend and shift across the basin through early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz Sun night into Mon. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered southeast of Bermuda continues to affect the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough seas in the south-central and portions of the southwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong SE winds and seas to 6 ft are ongoing.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the Caribbean basin through the forecast period. Rough seas will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight into the weekend as N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of both the Bermuda and Azores Highs, which extend a ridge across the tropical Atlantic waters. Between both ridges, a slow moving cold front extends from 31N39W to 28N46W where it stalls while continuing to 24N69W. Over the southwestern, North Atlantic waters, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, however rough seas to 11 ft prevails east of 65W to about 34W. Over the far eastern subtropical Atlantic, winds are fresh to locally strong, including the Canary Islands, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are present west of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 70W will slowly subside from west to east through early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of northern Florida into this weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U. S. on Sun, with increasing winds and rapidly building seas expected in the wake of the front through early next week.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Nepaul