Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands near 25W, extending from 05N to 16N, and moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 20W and 30W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning. The axis of the wave extends from inland E Venezuela to 19N and is near 61W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 54W and 68W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N35W to 07N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 13N E of 20W, from 06N to 10N between 30W and 36W, and from 05N to 09N between 37W and 54W.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic SW across the SE U. S. and to the central Gulf waters, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Aside from the moderate winds, the surface trough is generating heavy showers and scattered tstms in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E Pacific extension of the monsoon continue to support scattered showers over the Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters. Shower activity is also ongoing in the E basin as a tropical wave moves across the Lesser Antilles this morning.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Tue night. Expect winds to reach near-gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the E Caribbean through tonight as a tropical wave moves across the region.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough, remnants of a statonary front, extends from a 1017 mb low pressure near 31N73W to Freeport northern adjacent waters. Only isolated showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. Otherwise, the Azores extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds across the region and moderate seas, except slight seas W of 65W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U. S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos