For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western Gulf: A broad low pressure area moving west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche is accompanied by poorly organized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours
Low
20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days
Low
20 percent.
Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Beven
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 18W, south of 14N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 13N and east of 27W.
Another eastern tropical wave is along 32W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near the trough axis.
The tropical wave previously analyzed in the eastern Caribbean has dissipated based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave diagnostic data.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave.
Monsoon Trough Itcz
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ.
Gulf Of America
A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 25N and west of 90W. The tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1017 mb ridge in the NE Gulf sustain fresh to near gale-force SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, scattered to numerous squalls and thunderstorm continue tonight across the SW Gulf, to the NE of a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W and extending to offshore of Tampico. The low pressure system will shift NW through the weekend and move inland over northeastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun.
Caribbean Sea
Diurnal heating and divergence aloft are sustaining a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby waters. The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is also producing some shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribbean waters, supporting fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward along 28. 5N and across Florida and the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early next week to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 845W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.
Atlantic Ocean
A stationary front extends from 31N38W to 28N44W, followed by a surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 14N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic along 25N westward across Florida along 28. 5N and across the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place through early next week. Weak low pressure near 31N56W, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, is shifting NE and out of the forecast waters, and will allow the ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U. S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Posted 3 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado