..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 05N08W and continues westward to 04N13W. The ITCZ extends from 04N13W to 04N35W to NE Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery from 02N to 08N and between 16W and 36W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Broad ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or weaker easterly winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through Sun as ridging extends over the basin. Strong high pressure in the central United States will drift slowly eastward early next week, resulting in moderate E to SE winds late Sun into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move through the south-central United States by midweek, and fresh SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wed ahead of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the Bay Islands of Honduras. A dry continental airmass is found behind the frontal boundary. However, plenty of tropical moisture, divergence aloft and low-level wind convergence support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the central, SW and NE Caribbean waters, impacting southern Central America, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Rainfall could be heavy at times causing localized flash flooding.

The pressure gradient between the strong ridge over the central United States and the aforementioned front support moderate to locally strong NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft west of a line extending from Haiti to northern Panama. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the Windward Passage and in the waters surrounding the San Andres and Providencia Islands. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the SE Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across the western Caribbean through Sun behind a cold front stalling from southeastern Cuba through the Gulf of Honduras, before the cold front dissipates Sun night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds will prevail over the eastern basin. High pressure will build over eastern Mexico early next week, and low pressure over northern Colombia will strengthen. The increasing pressure gradient between these features will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across much of the basin Sun night through at least Tue. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage, downwind of southwestern Cuba and offshore of Colombia, and rough seas will be possible near strong winds. Winds and seas will slowly diminish by mid to late week.

Atlantic Ocean

The cold front in the SW North Atlantic continues to move eastward, extending from about 100 nm SE of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The airmass behind the front is quite dry, thus no deep convection is noted in the area. Moderate or weaker northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found west of the front. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from near 31N61W to eastern Hispaniola and scattered showers are evident ahead of the trough axis to 59W and north of 26N. Similar convection is seen off eastern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, mainly south of 22N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh southerly winds betwen 55W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a robust subtropical ridge positioned NE of the Azores. A dissipating front is analyzed from 31N38W to 17N53W and a few showers are noted near this boundary. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support strong to near gale- force NE-E winds north of 17N and east of 30W. This was confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass from a couple hours ago. Rough seas are found in these waters, peaking near 13 ft north of the Canary Islands. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, south of 20N. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will progress eastward through early next week, and moderate NW winds will occur behind the front through Sun. Farther east, fresh SE to S winds will occur north of 25N and east of 60W through Sun morning along the periphery of a 1023 mb high in the central Atlantic. The high will weaken and drift eastward early next week. South of 20N, moderate to briefly fresh trades will prevail into the middle of next week. Troughing will develop east of the Bahamas Sun then drift westward toward the east coast of Florida by late Mon, while low pressure develops off the coast of NE Florida. Strengthening high pressure in the central United States will drift eastward, and the tightening pressure gradient between these features will result in widespread fresh to strong NE winds and very rough seas north of 22N between 60W and 72W Mon morning, with winds and seas developing farther west across the Bahamas by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Tue night into early Wed.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado