Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W, S of 11N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17. 5W and continues southwestward to near 01S31W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 00N35W to near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N along both, the ITCZ and the monsoon trough.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure over the E Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the western Gulf W of 87W, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas W of 87W are 3 to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere along with seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf interacting with lower pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southeast winds in the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through late tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters by Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Looking ahead, another cold front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, and reach from north-central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are likely to precede the fronts.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere, except over the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E winds prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras though diminishing there Mon. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from 31N57W to 28N63W, then it becomes stationary from 31N57W to 28N71W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are SE of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail N of the front. Moderate winds are N of 29N within 60 nm east of the front. A surface trough extends from 22N35W to 28N34W. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are found from 23N to 30N and east of 47W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out through Thu. Another front will move off northern Florida Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Elsewhere, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend and into early next week. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extending from near 31N56W to the Florida Keys will be in place during the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV