Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low will cause tradewinds off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force Fri night and early Sat morning. Seas under these winds are expected to range between 12-15 ft north of Colombia and 4-7 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 00N-13N between 33W-46W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Dominican Republic southward into Venezuela, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this wave this afternoon.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward along coastal Nicaragua. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N-16N west of 82W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W near coastal Gambia and extends to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 06N36W. It begins again at 05N41W to 04N53W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 00N-13N between 33W-46W and from 03N-08N between 21W-26W.

Gulf Of America

Gentle to moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across much of the Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 25N-27N east of 83W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning, and please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the basin.

The pressure gradient between ridging across much of the Atlantic and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong trades across much of the central Caribbean, as well as seas of 8-9 ft in the south- central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough to very rough seas in the central Caribbean through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela will peak at minimal gale- force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level shortwave centered at 31N63W is helping to enhance isolated moderate convection north of 28N between 60W-70W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by ridging, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Fri night. A nearly north-to-south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region Fri through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea/Adams