Special Features

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, is allowing for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Persisting rainfall is expected over northern Honduras and E Nicaragua, particularly along the Caribbean coast, through this evening. Additional rainfall will generally range from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated 4+ inches possible, especially along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through later today. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: High pressure over the southeast United States is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.

Of note: With de above mentioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml, for more information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 08N between 24W and 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin on Sat.

High pressure of 1025 mb located over the SE of the United States extends a ridge across Florida and the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the high, the trough, and a lingering frontal boundary in the western Caribbean is producing moderate to fresh N winds across the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, with moderate seas based on latest altimeter data. The highest seas are found in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeast United States is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on additional rainfall expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through this evening.

A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the Windward Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States and Gulf of America supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary. Moderate to rough seas prevail across much of this area. In the south-central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas in these waters are moderate. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will prevail across over the reefs off Nicaragua tonight. The front may briefly start moving southeastward off Nicaragua and Costa Rica as a weakening cold front Fri into Sat. This will happen ahead of an unusually strong cold front that will move into the northwest Caribbean Sat morning and move southeastward, merge with the old lingering front from eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The merged front will reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

Scattered thunderstorms are active near a 1014 mb low pressure center at 28N60W, which is along a stationary front reaching from 31N47W to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow the front north of 29N, and fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are ahead of the front. Rough seas are within these winds. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure situated near 28N28W. The associated ridge extends toward the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of 23N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are observed in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low pressure moving into the Carolina coast. This will bring an unusually strong cold front that will move off northeast Florida Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of 23. 5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening.

Posted 24 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster ERA