Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure and an attendant cold front moving S of 31N will reach from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by late Tue. Strong SW winds will develop ahead of the front Tue, increasing to gale-force SE of Bermuda by afternoon. Seas will build in this area to very rough. The front will stall Tue night, and winds will fall below gale force by Wed morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 16N and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 33W and 37W.

A new tropical wave has been analyzed along 46W, S of 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently associated with this wave.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, S of 15N extending southward into the eastern Pacific, moving W at around 5 kt. Associated convection is confined to inland portions of Central America and the waters of the eastern Pacific basin.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 07N31W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to the Brazil coast near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 07N east of 20W.

Gulf Of America

A deep layer trough across the western Gulf is promoting scattered moderate convection between 87W and 94W, with the most concentrated thunderstorms from 22N to 25N. Except near these thunderstorms, winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-4 ft due to weak ridging predominating.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters until Wed morning, supporting gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds. On Wed night, a late-season cold front will enter the northeastern Gulf, then stall from near Cape Haze, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas behind this front. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the eastern and central Gulf through midweek.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between a ridge north of the Greater Antilles and a 1007 mb Colombian Low will continue to produce strong trades over the S central Caribbean. Fresh winds have also developed in the Gulf of Honduras and over the remainder of the central and eastern basin. Rough seas are present where the strong winds are, with moderate seas corresponding to fresh winds. For the rest of the basin, moderate winds and slight seas prevail. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean this evening.

For the forecast, a tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern basin through Wed morning. Afterward, these trade winds should decrease to between moderate and fresh with moderate seas by Thu. Fresh to strong winds with moderate seas are expected at the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea through the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for waters southeast of Bermuda Tue evening.

A cold front has stalled from 31N57W to 26N62W. Convection associated with this boundary has diminished this evening. However, an upper level trough to the west is leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from The Bahamas to 28N between 72W and Florida. N of these thunderstorms, a 1011 mb low pressure is noted at 31N75W with a warm front extending SE to 29N72W, and cold front stretching from the low to near Daytona Beach, Florida. The remainder of the basin is dominated ridging from the Azores High, leading to moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure will merge with an existing stationary front near 30N62W on Tue night. Aided by a strong high over the north-central Atlantic, near-gale to gale- force S to SW winds and rough seas are expected south of the low. As this low tracks northeastward away from the area Wed and Wed night, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Afterward, a surface ridge will build southeastward from the southeastern U. S. and promote gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas for the wester Atlantic. The except will be pulsing fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola until Thu night.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik