Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between 58W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16. 5W and continues southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04. 5N30W to 02N44W. It continues from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01. 5N to 11N east of 18W.

Gulf Of America

A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019 mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from 27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21. 5N and west of 93W.

For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N. Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion, where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends into the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N-28N west of 43W, stretching across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high center near 29N32W, and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures in the tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas south of about 21N and west of 35W, except from 13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to 35W where fresh northeast winds are present as noted in a satellite scatterometer data pass from this morning. Moderate seas are in this area as well. Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. No significant convection is present with this feature. The latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes along with recent buoy reports are indicating slight to moderate seas elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to southeast trade winds south of 22N, then become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to moderate southeast to south winds Mon through Wed. Fresh southwest winds will develop across the NW forecast waters, namely north of 29N and west of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the southeastern U. S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre