Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 05N53W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 13N and east of 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf waters, while a stationary front remains straddled across the NE and northern waters associated with a 1011 mb low pres near 29N88W. Scattered showers are found in off the Florida panhandle and SW Florida. Moderate to locally strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are occurring north of the frontal boundaries. In the remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure will exit the basin northeastward toward the Carolinas this morning. Locally strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas will persist behind the boundaries before diminishing late today. The cold front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by late Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters late Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

A surface trough is moving slowly westward into the western Atlantic and through the Leeward Islands. This is disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge north of the area, and is resulting in light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the far eastern Caribbean. The ridge is still influencing the central Caribbean where moderate to fresh NE trade winds and moderate seas are evident. Light to gentle NE to E breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama, but fair conditions prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will diminish across the basin today and Wed as the aforementioned trough progresses westward, disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge. However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the high pressure builds in north of the area. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low pres near 31N78W to Palm Beach, Florida. Fresh to locally strong SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas north of 28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a surface trough along 63W and divergence aloft support numerous showers north of 21N and between 53W and 66W. The pressure gradient between the 1034 mb high pressure near the Azores and lower pressures in the deep tropics and the aforementioned trough result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds over much of the basin east of 65W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the Gulf of America will reach the waters off the northeast Florida coast late today, extending from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently located near 63W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just N of Puerto Rico today, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over the next couple of days.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado