Hurricane

Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry, wife welcome 3rd child
Local 10 Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert Michael Lowry, wife welcome 3rd child
The tumultuous 2025 hurricane season comes to a close
The tumultuous 2025 hurricane season comes to a close
This hurricane season two forecast models stand out, but for very different reasons
This hurricane season two forecast models stand out, but for very different reasons
Updates

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 4 months ago by NHC Forecaster Bucci

Special Features

Gale Warning and Western and Central Atlantic Ocean High Seas: A cold front extends from 31N51W to 22N68W, followed by a shear line that extends to the eastern Bahamas. The front will reach from 31N46W to 27N55W to 21N64W this evening. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas to 18 ft are expected behind the front. Winds will briefly reach gale force in the NE offshore waters N of 27N and E of 60W this evening. Thereafter, the front will stall and gradually weaken before it dissipates over the eastern offshore waters Tue. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, which will support the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across most of the offshore forecast waters through the end of the week. However, seas above 12 ft are forecast to subside Wed night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following websites: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the marine zone of Agadir near the coast of Morocco through 30/18 UTC. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https: //wwmiws. wmo. int

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16. 5W, then reaches southwestward to near 00N30W. The ITCZ begins near 00N30W then continues to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03S to 03N between 19W and 38W.

Gulf Of America

An upper level trough is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms north of 26. 5N between 87. 5W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is also found in the Bay of Campeche in association to a surface trough. Otherwise, strong high pressure over the NW Atlantic waters, building in the wake of the front, extends a ridge basin-wide, which is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds E of 90W and gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W. Seas are mainly slight W of 90W and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Fri night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for locally strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between a strong Atlantic ridge building in the wake of a front N of the area and a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds along with moderate to rough seas over the NW, SW, and central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Fri night, pulsing to near gale force at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning about a gale warning and the wind waves generating very rough seas.

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 22N68W, followed by a shear line that extends to the eastern Bahamas. Strong high pressure building behind the front supports strong to near gale-force NE winds from the southern Florida seaboard to 53W, according to the latest satellite-derived winds. An area of gale-force winds has also been confirmed by satellite observations, north of 30N between 52W and 54W. Rough to very rough seas are found along with these winds. Ahead of the front, a weak surface trough with scattered to isolated showers prevail. Otherwise, a 1041 mb high NE to the Azores Islands extends a ridge to the eastern Atlantic subtropical waters and supports fresh to near gale-force NE to W winds and rough to very rough seas to 14 ft N of 26N and E of 26W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from 31N46W to 27N55W to 21N64W this evening. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front, briefly reaching minimal gale force in the NE offshore waters N of 27N and E of 57W this evening. The front will stall and dissipate over the SE waters Tue, with strong high pressure building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are then expected across most of the offshore forecast waters the second half of the week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV