Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has been analyzed near 18W from 13N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are seen from 02N to 08N between 11W and 20W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 45W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 02N to 07N between 42W and 50W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 79-80W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific to near 05N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 11N and W of 80W. Convection with this wave is being enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough, which extends across the SW Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 01N34W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 03N between 23W and 41W.

Gulf Of America

An upper level shortwave over the south-central US is supporting widely scattered moderate convection across much of the N and W Gulf coast from near Panama City Beach, FL to near Tampico, Mexico. Ridging extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf supports moderate E to SE winds across much of the Gulf, with fresh to strong winds pulsing along and near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken into midweek. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W Sat night through Tue as a weak trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become southeast at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to affect portions of the western Gulf through the weekend and into next week. Mariners should keep up with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across waters near Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean into early next week creating rough seas over these waters. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next week as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure N of the region extends a ridge across much of the basin. Fresh trades and seas of 6-8 ft prevail across areas S of 22N, as well as areas N of 22N and E of 30W. Winds are locally fresh to strong in between the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands, confirmed by recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the remainder of the Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas near 32N58W dominates the forecast region. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun afternoon into Mon before stalling near 26N, then begin to weaken, dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as slightly stronger high pressure over the north-central Atlantic shifts east-southeastward leading to a tighter pressure gradient.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams