Special Features

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends from E Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 01N35W and 00N50W. No significant convection is noted near these boundaries.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A surface trough in the central Gulf and another one in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the basin, although any shower activity associated with this convection is very light. The Gulf is under the influence of a strong high pressure that forces moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft in the eastern and SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stalled cold front in the NW Caribbean has begun to drift southeastward. High pressure over the southern Plains will shift east through Thu ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri as it moves into the western Atlantic late Fri and Sat. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf on Sat, and possibly off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf following the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua. Stratocumulus clouds cover much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States support fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary. In the south-central Caribbean, a recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE winds. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across the N Gulf of America is starting to move eastward. Winds across NW portions behind the front will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Thu, and force it slowly southeastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica border Thu evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun evening. Strong to near gale- force N winds are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A stationary front extends from 31N48W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A few light showers are evident near this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring behind the boundary and south of 26N. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-13 ft are found north of 27N and east of the front to 35W. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 30N and west of 65W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N28W that extends southwestward to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally very rough seas are found south of 24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are evident in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will meander across this area through Thu. High pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu evening, and nudge the front southward to the Atlantic approach to the Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a large area of westerly gale- force winds across the local waters N of 24N Sat through Sun evening. The front is expected to reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado