Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 13N between 11W and 36W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 25N93. 5W, where it becomes stationary and continues through the Bay of Campeche to 19N96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the northern Gulf behind the front, north of 27N. Mainly moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted north and west of the front, with locally fresh NW winds and seas to 8 ft occurring offshore of Veracruz. Mainly moderate SE to SW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the remainder of the basin ahead of the front.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish behind the aforementioned cold front this evening and tonight. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail across western portions of the Caribbean. Rough seas of 8-10 ft in E swell are occurring east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic Passages. A weak upper level trough and pockets of enhanced moisture in the central Caribbean are also leading to scattered moderate convection occurring in a region from 14N to 17N between 75W and 82W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh E trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N51W to near 23N67W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the trough axis from 26N56W northeastward. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 6-9 ft seas are noted ahead of this feature generally N of 28N and W of 45W. Another trough follows and extends from 31N54W to near 23N73W. A shift from gentle S winds south of this trough to moderate to locally fresh N winds north of the trough is noted. To the west, a 1018 mb low near 29N67W extends another frontal remnant trough southwestward through the Bahamas and Florida Straits. No significant convection or wind shifts are observed with this feature. Off the east coast of FL and north of the Bahamas, a strengthening 1011 mb low is driving moderate to fresh S to SW winds ahead of a cold front pushing off the southeast coast of the United States.

In the east Atlantic, an upper level low over the Canary Islands embedded within a broad upper level trough is leading to the development of scattered showers near the islands. Farther south, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east of 36W. Outside of convection, a surface ridging pattern is prevalent across the Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the basin S of 20N, as well as areas N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from S of Bermuda to east of the Bahamas is expected to move eastward across the central Atlantic through Sat, leading to fresh winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas prevail off NE Florida ahead of the next cold front that will enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push quickly eastward Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster ADAMS