Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the process of moving into the far eastern Atlantic Ocean from western Africa.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along 28W, south of 13N, analyzed more to the W compared to several hours ago based on the latest derived proxy visible satellite imagery, TPW imagery, scatterometer data, and tropical wave model diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 25W and 32. 5W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean along 52W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 11N between 44W and 57W.

A tropical wave is now in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along 62W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is now mainly confined inland over portions of Venezuela.

A tropical wave is moving from the central to the western Caribbean Sea along 77W/78W, south of 18N or eastern Jamaica. This tropical wave is now analyzed quite a bit more to the W compared to several hours ago based on all available analysis tools. Scattered moderate to strong convection is active near the northern portion from 14N to 19N between 73W and 78W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of western Africa near 12. 5N16W and continues southwestward to 04N31W. The ITCZ extends from 04N31W to 06N51W with a tropical wave just to the W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 21W and 26W. Additional convection is described above with two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean.

Gulf Of America

A weak surface trough, partially the western remnants of an old frontal boundary, is losing definition over the NW Gulf. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near this feature. This trough combined within ridging over the southeastern United States supports fresh to locally strong winds near SE Louisiana and offshore Mississippi and Alabama. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Yucatan Peninsula along 90W to the S of 23N. This trough supports fresh to strong N-E winds along the coast and just offshore of the northern and western Yucatan, along with 5-7 ft seas. Mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, locally fresh near and through the Straits of Florida. Seas are 2-5 ft across the remainder of the basin, lowest in the eastern Gulf coastal waters of Florida, and offshore Veracruz.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave now in the far eastern Caribbean Sea and another moving from the central to western Caribbean Sea, including associated convection.

Otherwise, some scattered convection is possible in the SW Caribbean Sea near the extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough along 10N/11N. Ridging from the central and eastern Atlantic mid-latitudes extends to just N of the Greater Antilles. This ridging combined with the tropical waves supports moderate to fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, locally fresh in the S-central, and fresh to strong E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, except light and variable in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft across much of the basin, except 3-4 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 2-3 ft in the Lee of Cuba in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America.

Atlantic Ocean

The most recent High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France had the Gale Warning in the Agadir forecast zone/region ending at 0000 UTC.

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection and two tropical waves moving through the Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from N of the area through 31N63. 5W to near the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands where it is dissipating. Associated widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be found on either side of the front. Moderate to fresh S-S winds are noted N of 26N within about 60-120 nm ahead of the front, along with 5-6 ft seas. High pressure of 1020 mb is behind the front offshore the Carolinas near 33N76W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E flow is found near and through the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere behind the front. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft W of the front in a mix of swells.

To the E, high pressure of 1030 mb near 34N33W dominates the waters E of the stationary front. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong N-NE winds N of 17N and E of 20W, with seas of 7-12 ft. Mainly moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found elsewhere N of 15N and E of 40W, and S of 20N and W of 30W, along with seas of 6-8 ft in mainly NE-E swells. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the remainder of the waters E of the front in the Atlantic. Seas of 4-6 ft are across the remainder of the basin E of the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will dissipate late into Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky