Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon, bringing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are likely offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Both winds and seas should gradually subside early next week in the wake of the front.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to near 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 01N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and between 10W and 20W, and S of 04N between 30W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning has been issued with the afternoon forecast package. Please, see the Special features section for more information.

A ridge dominates the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures across eastern Mexico and south Texas supports moderate to fresh southerly winds over much of the basin. However, a tighter pressure gradient is noted north of the Yucatan peninsula resulting in fresh to strong SE winds across the central Gulf, particularly from 22N to 26N between 87W and 92W based on the most recent scatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds while slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere. The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing hazy skies W of 92W. In addition, the warmer southerly wind flow, moving across the cooler coastal waters will also cause the development of areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from the NE Mexican coast to SE Louisiana tonight into Sat morning. Dense Fog Advisories are already in effect for these coastal waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Sat evening. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night as a trough develops daily over the region. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon, bringing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are likely offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Both winds and seas should gradually subside early next week in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds across most of the east and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds just offshore Colombia. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within the strongest winds, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 80W. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate E to SE winds are over the remainder of the NW Caribbean, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are evident in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1019 mb Atlantic high pressure located near 27N59W and the Colombian low, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and the south-central Caribbean through this weekend. These winds will reach near-gale force along with rough seas offshore of northern Colombia each night. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected for the rest of the Caribbean through Sun night. Farther east, rough seas will linger east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell progresses across the central tropical Atlantic. In the long term, a strong cold front will move through the Gulf of America this weekend and enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, reaching from near Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. Anticipate rapidly increasing winds and building seas behind this front.

Atlantic Ocean

The SW North Atlantic, west of 50W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge, centered on 1019 mb high pressure located near 27N59W. This pattern is maintaining moderate or weaker winds across most of that area, except for moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and a cold front north of the area sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds and rough seas to 11 ft north of 30N between 42W and 58W. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere W of 50W and E of the Bahamas. Decaying NW swell is producing rough seas N of 20N and E of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are occurring offshore Western Sahara due to the pressure gradient between a ridge that extends across the Madeira and Canary Islands and a trough over NW Africa. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas north of 29N and east of 65W in N swell will subside from west to east through Sat. Elsewhere, a 1019 mb high pressure located southeast of Bermuda will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida through Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U. S. on Sun, with strong to near- gale NW winds and rapidly rising seas behind the front through early next week. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to near the Dominican Republic Tue morning while weakening. It should stall near these locations and dissipate on Wed.

Posted 1 minute ago by NHC Forecaster GR