Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, from 02N to 19W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 12 N between 17. 5W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 50W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 46W and 55W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 80. 5W, S of 20N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 07N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 10N between 25W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

Afternoon scattered moderate convection over Florida has moved over the eastern Gulf as it weakens. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche south of 19N. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is leading to light to gentle winds and slight seas through the basin, except for moderate NE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. A weakening surface trough in the NE Gulf will gradually dissipate through Thu, with some showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting along the trough. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sun night due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a strong subtropical ridge north of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward to the Bahamas, and will generally remain in place through the weekend. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through Sun. Expect winds to reach near gale-force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper-level trough sinks across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas. Isolated showers are found along the trough axis. Another weak trough is supporting scattered showers north of 28N between 49W and 62W. The Azores High extends a ridge across the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds across the waters S of 22N are moderate to fresh with moderate seas to 6 ft. N of 17N and E of 35W, a tighter pressure gradient with lower pressures over NW Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds along with rough seas to 10 ft, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough that extends from a 1014 mb low near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas will gradually dissipate through Thu while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U. S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster KRV