Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 03N-10N and E of 34W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the Yucatan Channel, including part of the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are present across the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will occur over the basin through Fri morning as high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern U. S. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening through this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf late this weekend as low pressure strengthens in the south- central U. S.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage and Lesser Antilles. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Caribbean coast of Panama mainly S of 10N. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia tonight, and again by this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front meanders west-southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N56W to the northern Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to 25N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found near the front/trough north of 21N between 50W and 65W. This activity is also supported by an upper- level low in the area. Another stationary front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 30N35W to 24N42W. Scattered showers are present up to 60 nm along either side of this boundary. Another surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection from 20N to 22N between 66W-71W.

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted north of 25N between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and through the Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf of America and the southeastern U. S. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of 27N and east of 65W through Thu as a complex low pressure system forms. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri. Increasing SW winds and building seas may occur offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U. S.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA