Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from low pressure over NE Georgia southwestward to the Big Bend of Florida, and continues to 25N87W and to inland Mexico near 19N95W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are in the wake of the front as it quickly moves southeastward across the area. It will exit the basin by early this afternoon. The low pressure will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast through tonight as another blast of arctic air surges across the Gulf sustaining gale force winds offshore Veracruz into early this morning, and across the eastern Gulf through late late tonight, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1011 mb is just N of the area near 31N76W. The low will slowly track NE offshore the Carolina coast through tonight while expanding and rapidly intensifying. The low will part of complex low pressure system with a mean center as it tracks to the NE. A strong arctic cold front associated with this system is currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. It will cross Florida today and sweep across the western Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising seas will cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Gusts to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba this evening, from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from this evening through early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for today and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly changing conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information on both events.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W and to just inland the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-34W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 19W-25W. Similar activity is to the southeast of the trough within 30 nm of line from 03N12W to 01N19W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the SW Gulf soon to end and for anoyher Gale Warning for the eastern Gulf.

East of the cold front described in the Special Features section, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western Gulf by late Wed. .

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward across central Cuba, to a weak 1013 mb low just south of Cuba at 21. 5N79W. The trough continues to 10N82W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are west of the trough to near 84. 5W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front that is currently moving through the eastern and central Gulf of America will move into the northwestern Caribbean this morning overtaking the trough. The cold front will reach from the vicinity of the Windward Passage to 15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds will over just about the entire basin roughly west of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning for the western Atlantic.

The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the Bahamas from 23N to 28N between 71W and 75W. This activity is being sustained by an upper- level disturbance riding along a subtropical jetstream branch that passes over that part of the area. A surface trough extends from near 28N76W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Moderate to locally strong east to southeast winds are between 65W and 76W as depicted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas over these waters are about 6 to 8 ft.

Farther east, a frontal trough extends from near 31N45W to 25N54W, and another trough extends from near 31N52W to 27N62W, and yet another trough is analyzed from 24N61W to just north of the north- central Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are east of the first trough to near 37W and north of about 27. 5N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell within the area of these winds. Isolated showers are possible near these troughs. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high that is near 29N27W. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are found south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre