Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of Bermuda to near 29N, and between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

Tropical Waves

An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 19W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 11W and 22W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed S of 12N to well inland across Venezuela, between 57W and 65W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W-76W, south of 16N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 11N between 73W and 79W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15. 5W and continues southwestward to 05. 5N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05. 5N22W to the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 09N between 11W and 27W and from 05N to 10N between 27W and 61W.

Gulf Of America

A deep-layered upper level trough from the north-central to the southwestern Gulf continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient prevails. with a surface trough extending from offshore of SE Louisianan to the central Bay of Campeche, with Atlantic high pressure extending into south Florida. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate SE to S winds east of the trough, and light and variable winds to the west. However, fresh SW winds were noted offshore of the Florida Panhandle where active convection was occurring. Recent buoy and satellite altimeter data show seas mainly 3 ft or less across the basin, and likely higher near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to extend into the eastern Gulf and dominate the area waters through midweek, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. A deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf will combine with very warm, humid and unstable air to yield rounds of showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through at least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

A few clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean near the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is developing along a surface trough analyzed near the eastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection occurring near a tropical wave across the SE Caribbean is impacting the waters there south of 12N. A strong Atlantic ridge extends southwestward to the central Bahamas, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, confirmed by recent scatterometer and altimeter data. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the basin away from the south coastal waters of Cuba, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will combine with the Colombian low to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the next week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends along 30-31N from near 55W to a 1011 mb low near 31N76W, with a dissipating stationary front between the low and the GA coastal waters. A surface trough extends from the low to the NW Bahamas, and is supporting scattered moderate convection along and east of the trough to 70W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail E of the trough, generally N of 22N between 60W and 77W, and increase to fresh to strong speeds near the surface low. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these waters, North of the ridge axis, between 40W and 68W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail, producing seas of 6 to 10 ft in NW swell. The ridge is anchored by a 1029 mb surface high near 30N34W, and dominates the remainder of the basin E of 40W with fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas. Saharan air following the tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean extends from the coast of Africa to near 59W, to the south of 24N. The remainder of the basin away from any fronts or other features is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are occurring ahead of a 1011 mb low pressure area located near 31N76W. A surface trough extends from the low center to the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds S to SW winds and moderate to rough seas will develop N of 26N and E of the trough and low, as the low shift E-NE and out of the area tonight through early Mon. A reinforcing cold front will move into the area behind the exiting low. This cold front will also shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 29N Sun afternoon into Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida on Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N.

Posted 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling