Special Features

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will support fresh to near gale- force winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the water between Cuba and Jamaica, into tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore Colombia. Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 12 ft (2. 5 to 4 m) range.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell of 12 to 13 ft persists north of 26N and east of 50W, with 12 to 16 second periods. Seas are forecast to slowly decay to less than 12 ft (4 m) from SW to NE through early this evening as the swell loses energy.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details on these events.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 02N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N35W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 07N between 13W and 17W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front is moving across the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf this afternoon. A surface ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure over the northern Bahamas, across central Florida and through the northern Gulf. This pattern will support gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas persist across the Gulf ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the front will enter the northwest Gulf, but then lift north of the basin. This will leave high pressure in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the end of the work week, bringing mainly gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds this weekend ahead of a cold front that will moves cross the west and central waters Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system.

Caribbean Sea

See the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.

1024 mb high pressure is analyzed over the northern Bahamas. The gradient between it and relatively lower pressure to the south is supporting fresh to near gale-force northeast winds over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and waters south of the Greater Antilles. Seas over the central Caribbean are in 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell are over the eastern part of the basin while seas of 4 to 6 ft are west of about 80W, except for slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Large, long- period northwest to north swell is bringing seas of 7 to 8 ft through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, into tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore Colombia. Seas, associated with a northerly swell event, will begin to gradually subside across the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters tonight into Thu. Late this week into the weekend, the pressure gradient will relax, leading to moderate to fresh trade winds dominating the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for information on significant west to northwest swell that is impacting portions of the central subtropical Atlantic.

Recent scatterometer satellite passes confirmed part of an area of fresh to strong SW winds north of 28N between northeast Florida and Bermuda, ahead of a cold front moving through the southeast U. S. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Farther south, the scatterometer pass also showed calm to light breezes along a surface ridge reaching along 25N/26N west of 55W, to include 1024 mb high pressure over the northern Bahamas. Moderate trade winds are noted south of the ridge. Farther east, a stationary front extends from the central Azores southwestward to 21N50W, then continues as a trough to the northern Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted east of the front, north of 27N. Over the eastern Atlantic, a surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure over the Canary Islands to 25N40W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted southeast of the ridge, from off the coast of North Africa to the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the large swell, 8 to 11 ft NW swell dominates the waters east of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the forecast region. On the NW side of the high, southwesterly winds are on increase across the northern forecast waters. These winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds by tonight, ahead of the next cold front. This front will enter NW waters Thu, then cross the area through through Fri night. Looking ahead, more strong S to SW winds are likely offshore the SE U. S. starting Sun, ahead of another cold front.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen