Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 14N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 10N and E of 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave has dissipated overnight.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from S of Haiti to the Colombia-Venezuela border, moving W at around 15 kt. Most associated convection is inland over Venezuela and Colombia, but scattered moderate convection has developed early this morning in the Windward Passage and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to 03N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N28W to 01N42W. Convection near the area is covered in the Tropical Waves section above.

Convergent winds north of the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

Gulf Of America

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting mainly gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf. In the western Gulf, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Texas is leading to moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf through mid-week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for information on convection in the basin. A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge along 30N and a 1006 mb low pressure over far northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in the central and part of the southeastern basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends SE from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection extends up to 150 nm N of this boundary. Otherwise, broad ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N30W dominates. This is inducing gentle winds and moderate seas N of 27N, with mainly E winds and seas between 20N and 27N, then fresh trades and rough seas S of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into tonight north of the Leeward Islands. A weak trough extending from 31N60W to the Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid- week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik