Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast to near 07N15W, then continues as the ITCZ from 07N15W to 08N35W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present near these features from 03N to 12N between the Liberia coast and 45W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean offshore waters of Costa Rica, western Panama and Nicaragua.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W where it stalls and then continues to southern Texas. Active showers and thunderstorms are ahead of this frontal boundary being enhanced by the presence of two surface troughs, one over the SE basin and the other in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds follow this front along with seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to extend from near Tampa to Tampico later this morning, from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico tonight, and then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW Gulf Sun through Mon.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient associated with the Bermuda High and lower pressure linked to the E extension of the Pacific monsoon continues to support strong to near gales off Colombia and most of the SW basin. Seas with these winds are rough in the 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh are elsewhere in the central and E Caribbean along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing in the NW Caribbean waters. Otherwise, heavy showers and scattered tstms are affecting the offshore waters of W Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the SW and portions of the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is forecast to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through 26N50W to 24N61W. High pressure of 1029 mb N of this boundary continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the central subtropical Atlantic waters between 38W and 68W where seas are rough to 10 ft. A new cold front is emerging off of the NE Florida coast this morning, preceded and followed by moderate to fresh winds. Seas are moderate. Surface ridging along with moderate or weaker winds and seas are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the stationary front east of 65W will diminish this morning, as the front dissipates. A 1029 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to sustain fresh E-NE winds south of 23N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. The new cold front coming off the NE Florida coast this morning will be followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds. The cold front will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits tonight, from 31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N59W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos