Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A 993 mb low pressure is centered well northeast of Bermuda near 38N52W. Earlier scatterometer satellite passes showed a broad swath of gale force winds across much of the western Atlantic associated with the low pressure, with near-gale to gale force winds extending into the discussion area as far south as 27N between 55W and 65W. Concurrent Sofar buoys showed wave heights as high as 25 ft this area, combined seas in excess reaching as far south as 20N between 55W and 75W. The area of gale force winds will lift north of the area overnight as the low pressure shifts northeastward. This will leave the area combined seas in excess of 12 ft subsiding through mid week from west to east, but not before reaching as far east as 30W north of 28N. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building southeastward across the western Atlantic and toward the Greater Antilles early this week will tighten the pressure gradient across the Caribbean, to produce increasing NE tradewinds. This will result in gale force winds pulsing tonight and again Tue night offshore of NW Colombia, mainly within about 90 nm from the coast. Seas will build to 9 to 11 ft in association with these gales.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details on these events.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 06N15W to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02N to 04N east of 15W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf. This pattern is maintain light to gentle breezes and slight across the basin this afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly southerly flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night, just west of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the far western waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in effect for waters offshore Colombia.

A cold front extending from the Anegada Passage to 15N76W is starting to dissipate. High pressure is building from the northeast Gulf of America southeastward to 65W behind the front, and is acting to produce fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas from the south coast of the Dominican Republic to the coastal waters of northwest Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica through mid- week, Winds are likely to pulse to minimal gale-force tonight and again Tue night offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed creating hazardous marine conditions.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and significant swell in the western and central Atlantic.

Hazardous marine conditions dominate much of the basin, as described in the Special Features section, in association with a large and deep low pressure system moving northeastward across the northwest Atlantic. A cold front extends from the northwest Azores to the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong SW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are noted ahead of the front, north of 27N. Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is centered west of the Canary Islands near 28N22W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure southwestward toward 18N55W. Gentle breezes are noted along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds farther south. Seas elsewhere are 5 to 7 ft primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide east, with the southern end of the front remaining in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands through Wed. Gale-force winds behind it, N of 29N and E of 66W, will continue into tonight, with a broader area of strong W to NW winds N of 25N and E of 72W continuing. Very rough seas impacting waters E of 74W will only slowly subside from W to E, decaying below 12 ft region-wide by Wed. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through Thu, leading to mainly improving conditions. Another frontal boundary will reach the N waters on Thu. Fresh to strong SW winds and building seas are expected S of the front, over the waters N of 28N- 29N, Wed through Thu.

Posted 10 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen