Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through the early part of the week. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force Tue night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil at 02S42W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends across the basin from the W-central Atlantic. Gentle winds are found N of 25N along with slight seas, with gentle to moderate E-SE winds and moderate seas prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through midweek. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the basin through Fri night with winds increasing to fresh to strong speeds and seas building to 9 ft behind it. A brief period of gale force winds may be possible offshore of Veracruz early on Thu.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a developing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are moderate to fresh across much of the remaining basin. Rough seas prevail in the central Caribbean. Seas are moderate in the eastern and SW Caribbean, except locally rough near Atlantic passages, while slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the night-time hours Tue night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage through mid-week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed night. Marine conditions will improve slightly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical Atlantic, supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds south of 27N. Rough seas in E swell are noted in this region as well as east of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, the remnants of a frontal boundary are analyzed as a surface trough, extending from 31N37W to 25N41W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring N of 27N between the trough and 37W. Associated remnant rough seas are found N of 28N between 27W and 47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible N of 22N between 33W and 42W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a strong pressure gradient between a high to the north over the Azores and lower pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 27N through midweek, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold front. That front may move offshore Thu with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA