Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 32W from 12N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are sen S of 04N between 30W and 36W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 62W from 14N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident over central and eastern Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 84W, from northeastern Nicaragua southward into the Eastern Pacific around 03N84W. This wave is drifting west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over portions of Panama and Costa Rica, enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough which also extends across the region.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N31W where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues form 02N34W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 09N between 18W and 22W, and also from 00N to 03N between 43W and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active over the central Gulf along a surface trough in the area, generally N of 22N between 87W and 94W. Numerous strong convection is also developing over the western Yucatan Peninsula. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong E winds prevailing across much of the Gulf S of 25N, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing N of 25N. Seas of 2-5 ft are analyzed across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extending west-southwestward across Florida into the central Gulf will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Thu. The exception will be fresh to strong winds pulsing off northwestern Yucatan from late afternoon into the night-time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf should continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and northeastern Gulf through at least Wed. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, including off the southern tip of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh per the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, except for 8-10 ft seas offshore northern Colombia.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean with rough seas through Thu. These winds are expected to pulse to near-gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia at night through Tue night. In addition, moderate trades in the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas are going to expand northward into the north-central basin by Mon before gradually subside on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A cold front enters the discussion waters at 31N43W and extends to 29N53W to 31N61W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE winds and 6-8 ft seas north of the front with gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas south of the front. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the rest of the Atlantic waters, providing moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin mainly south of 25N. Locally strong E to NE winds are confirmed by recent scatterometer data off the coast of Mauritania, near the Mona Passage, and in the Straits of Florida. Winds are light to gentle north of 25N, with 3-5 ft seas, in closer proximity to high pressures centered north of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated across waters south of 25N through Wed morning, including the Great Bahama Bank as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. As the high begin to weaken Wed, it should allow winds and seas to diminish. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola through Tue night into Wed morning, creating moderate to rough seas. The western part of a cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from tonight into early Mon before stalling near 27N, and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with these marine conditions subsiding on Tue.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams