Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of Bermuda to near 29N, and between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

Tropical Waves

An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 23W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 09N and between 20W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 12N to well inland across Venezuela, between 57W and 70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 16N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N and east of 20W. Isolated showers are seen from 03N to 10N and west of 30W.

Gulf Of America

A deep-layered upper level trough from the north-central to the southwestern Gulf continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient prevails with a surface trough extending from offshore of southern Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche, with Atlantic high pressure extending into south Florida. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin. However, stronger winds and higher seas can be expected near the strongest storms.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support rounds of showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through at least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft and diurnal heating support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Cuba, Yucatan, Central America and surrounding waters. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge NE of the islands and lower pressures in northern Colombia results in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the next week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

A warm front extends northeastward from a 1010 mb low pressure system near 30N75W and a surface trough extends southwestward from the low. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted ahead of the front low to 68W and north of 26N. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of 27N and between 68W and 76W. Moderate to fresh S-SE winds and moderate seas are found north of 20N and between 50W and 68W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 30N35W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas from 10N to 29N and east of 40W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of a 1010 mb low pressure area located near 30N75W. A surface trough extends from the low center to the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will be associated with these features as they moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The cold front will also shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 29N Sun into Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida on Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado