Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: The cold front stretching southwestward from the northwest Bahamas across northern Cuba to the central Bay of Campeche are beginning to weaken. This will allow NNW winds off Veracruz, Mexico to drop below gale force in the next couple of hours. However, strong to near-gale force NNW winds and seas at 12 to 16 ft will persist into early Tuesday morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea north of Conakry, then runs southwestward to 06N16W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 06N16W across 03N30W to northeast of the Amazon Delta at 03N50W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 25W and 50W.

Convergent NE winds just north of the tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough are causing scattered showers across the Caribbean waters near Panama.

Gulf Of America

Please see the Special Features section gale winds and rough seas.

A cold front extends southwestward from the northwest Bahamas across northern Cuba to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm northwest of this boundary, except isolated thunderstorms are seen at the central Bay of Campeche. Outside the area off Veracruz mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found at the southwestern and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will weaken and stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the southwestern Gulf will gradually improve tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the Gulf through early Wed. The next cold front will move into the basin Wed night, following by increasing winds and building seas, with the front shifting quickly southeast of the Gulf Thu. Conditions should improve Thu night into Fri as high pressure shifts across the northern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A strong and broad surface ridge northeast of the Leeward Islands continues to support a robust trade-wind regime for much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft are seen at the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northwestern Colombia through much of the week due to the pressure gradient between aforementioned high and low pressure over northern Colombia. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A weakening cold front will move slowly southward across the Yucatan Channel today and become stationary across western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning as it gradually dissipates. Another cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean Thu and stall from eastern Cuba to Honduras on Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front stretches southwestward from just southeast of Bermuda across 31N65W to beyond the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers are present near and up to 80 nm northwest of this feature. Farther east, a couple of surface trough are triggering patchy showers from 20N to 28N between 60W and 73W. An upper-level low is causing scattered moderate convection from 19N to 23N between 53W and 56W. At the tropical Atlantic, two surface trough are taking advantage of divergent upper-level flow to generate scattered showers from 05N to 18N between 35W and 52W. Another cold front runs southwestward from northwest of Madeira across 30N29W to 28N38W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist behind the first cold front. For the rest of the western and tropical Atlantic north of 10N between 55W and the cold front/central and southeast Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to SE with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. To the east, north of 25N between 35W and 55W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft dominate. For the central and rest of the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 25N between 35W and 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed large swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will drift southeast today and become stationary tonight, then dissipate on Tue. High pressure will build eastward off of the southeast coast of the U. S. behind the front. Looking ahead, the next cold front will offshore of northeastern Florida late Wed night, reaching from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas Fri morning. Gale conditions are possible behind the front near and to the north of 31N Thu evening through early Fri.

Chan Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster