Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough is now confined to on land over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 00N40W. Convection previously along these features has diminished over water this evening.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends toward the NE Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection in the Bay of Campeche as well as within 120 nm of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. A cold front may enter the western Gulf Sunday with strong winds and rough seas expected in its vicinity. .

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong NE to E trades dominate waters offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh winds over most of the rest of the basin, except for the eastern Caribbean where gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except rough seas in N swell are spilling through Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep layer trough that extends roughly along 60W from 20N to 27N is inducing numerous moderate convection from 22N to 27N between 53W and 63W. In the far eastern Atlantic, low pressure between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde Islands is causing scattered moderate convection within 200 nm of the coast of Western Sahara. A relatively tight pressure gradient between subtropical ridging with an axis along 35 to 40N and lower pressure toward the Equator is inducing widespread fresh to locally strong trades between 20N and 30N, with associated rough seas. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend with seas slowly subsiding.

Posted 16 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik