Special Features

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to near Port Pierce, Florida. Gale-force SW winds ahead of this front have decreased to between strong and near-gale this evening. However, the combination of wind waves and existing large NW swell will maintain seas at 12 to 13 ft, north of 29N between 57W and 63W through late tonight. As the front weakens further Friday morning, it will allow seas to drop below 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast just north of Conakry, then reaches southwestward to 05N19W. An ITCZ continues from 05N19W across 00N33W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 06N east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is present farther west near the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 24W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front meanders northwestward from central Florida to the Florida Panhandle, then turns westward across the coastal areas of Mississippi, Louisiana, and southeastern Texas. Together with a 1017 mb low pressure south of New Orleans, Scattered showers are occurring north of 28N across the northwestern and north-central Gulf. Confirmed by local observations, patchy fog is seen along the coast of southern Bay of Campeche with local visibilities down to 6 nm. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high will remain in control across the Gulf through Fri, bringing in general light to gentle winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche through Sun. Southerly return flow will increase to between fresh and strong Fri night into Sat ahead of a cold front that will move across the western and central Gulf Sat night and Sun. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in the north-central and northeastern Gulf with this frontal system on Sun. Afterward, the front is forecast to move southeast of the area on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is causing patchy showers at the central basin. A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin, with fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the southwestern, north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Mainly gentle NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the northwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, pulsing winds to near gale-force are expected near the coast of Colombia again tonight due to the pressure gradient between existing large swell the Colombia/Panamanian low and high pressure centered N of the region. Winds will continue to pulse to strong nightly thereafter, with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through the upcoming weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for Significant Swell.

A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to near Port Pierce, Florida. Scattered showers are seen near and up to 100 nm south and east of this feature. Further southeast, convergent southerly winds are aided by modest divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the northeast coast of Hispaniola, and northeast of the Leeward Islands. To the northeast, scattered moderate convection is seen from 25N to 28N between 49W and 58W. At the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front reaches southwestward from near Madeira across 30N20W to near 25N43W. Patchy rain is found near and up to 100 nm south of this boundary. refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section, Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are evident north of 28N between 48W and 63W. To the south, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found from 20N to 28N between 50W and 60W. Farther west from north of 20N and west of 60W gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate NW swell exist. For the central Atlantic north of 20N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh E to SSE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft dominate. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N and west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to near-gale winds will spread east through tonight, then diminish Fri as the front weakens. The front will reach from 31N53W to the Windward Passage by Sat morning. High pressure will follow the front. On Sun, S winds will increase to strong offshore northern and central Florida, in advance of another cold front that will move off the southeastern U. S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front.

Chan Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster