Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of southern Senegal and Guinea Bissau, then curves southwestward through 06N20W to 03N24W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N24W through 00N35W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough from 07S to 05N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The southeastern end of a cold front curves southwestward across the Florida Straits to just northwest of the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are observed near and up to 60 nm north of the front. Two modest surface troughs are triggering additional showers at the central Gulf. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front is going to move over Cuba this afternoon. In response, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will gradually diminish in the southeastern Gulf in the wake of the front into tonight. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

Caribbean Sea

The southwestern end of a surface trough is producing patchy showers near Hispaniola. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is persisting across much of the basin. Moderate ENE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present at the lee of Cuba and northwest of Colombia. Mainly gentle NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will persist north of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will develop tonight and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late- season cold front moving across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate near the Windward Passage Wed night. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 200 nm southeast of this boundary. To the south, convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast of French Guiana, and State of Amapa in Brazil.

Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are evident behind the aforementioned front, except gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas off northeast Florida to 75W. Fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found ahead of the front, north of 28N between 56W and the front. To the east, gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it progresses eastward through Thu, although conditions in the wake of the front will gradually improve as the front weakens late this week. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for the end of the week, bringing tranquil conditions to area waters into the weekend.

Chan Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster