Special Features

Significant rainfall event: Moist onshore flow near a weakening frontal boundary over the NW caribbean will support heavy rainfall through late Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize. In particular, strong moisture convergence along the frontal boundary where it intersects the hilly terrain over northwest Honduras may create the potential for isolated areas of more than 8 inches of rainfall through late Thu impacting various communities to include Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro Sula. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid week. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 00N33W and to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 40W and 47W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

High pressure of 1034 mb located over Louisiana dominates the Gulf waters. The most recent scatterometer data indicate that fresh to strong winds persist over much of the Bay of Campeche. In addition, fresh to strong N to NE winds extend across the eastern Gulf all the way to the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8 to 10 ft seas over most areas south of 27N. Wave heights are subsiding quickly over the northern Gulf however. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from Florida to Louisiana where where dry offshore flow has cleared the skies.

For the forecast, surface ridging continues to build across the basin. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE through the night and Wed. The high will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure develops in the north-central Gulf along the next cold front. The front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri night and move SE of the basin Sat evening. Another round of strong northerly winds will follow this front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning, and S of the Florida Panhandle by Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are noted across the northwest Caribbean in the wake of stationary front that stretches from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Farther south, fresh to strong NE trade winds are active off the coast of Colombia where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Abundant patches of low level moisture are observed over the NW Caribbean just W of the frontal boundary. This cloudiness covers Honduras, Belize, most of Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula as well as parts of Nicaragua. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early Wed. Fresh winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to strong at night through Thu. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through Wed afternoon. The stationary front extending across eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will remain in the area through Thu, then begin weakening through the end of the week. Strong northerly winds will prevail behind the front before briefly diminishing to fresh by Wed morning. Strong winds and moderate seas will develop again over the NW Caribbean by the end of the week as surface ridging intensifies. A new strong cold front will move into the NW basin by late Sat, with strong winds and rough seas expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A strong cold front extends from 31N60W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front along with 8 to 11 ft seas per altimeter data. Fresh to strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1022 mb high pressure centered near 25N32W. Farther east, a cold front extends from northern Morocco to the western Canary Islands to 28N23W. Large NW swell of 12 to 15 ft follow the front east of 40W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere south of the ridge, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE to E swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will meander across this area through Thu, when new high pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front through Thu evening. The next strong cold front will enter the western waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the W Atlantic this weekend, inducing gale force winds across the area beginning on Sat night.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster GR