Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine zone until 14/09Z. Please visit website: https: //wwwmiws. wmo. int/index. php/metareas/display/2 for more detail.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 04N19W. An ITCZ continues from 04N19W across 00N26W to 03S30W, then turns westward to east of Sao Luis, Brazil at 02S42W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near the ITCZ from 07S to 02N between 17W and 37W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends southwestward from Cape Sable in southwest Florida to beyond Cancun, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 100 nm south of the front. A surface trough over central Florida is triggering similar weather near Tampa, Florida. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present near the aforementioned front, and along the Mexico and Texas coastline. A 1019 mb high over southern Mississippi and its related ridge dominate the rest of the Gulf with gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the front will lift back to the north as a warm front on Sat as high pressure over the region begins to shift eastward. Afterward, a strong cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf late Sun night, then quickly reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night. It should slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean by late Tue. Strong to near gale- force N winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale-force winds will be possible in the northwestern Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Veracruz may attain brief gusts to storm- force. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Gulf of America section for convection near the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, A a fair trade-wind regime continues as cross the basin. Fresh to strong NE trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the south-central basin through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift eastward through Sat, with a brief weakening of the gradient allowing for fresh to strong trades to be confined to south of 13N between 72W and 76W. Afterward, new high pressure will build westward across the central Atlantic next week, with the resulting pressure gradient leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical North Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean, including through passages.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front meanders southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N66W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond the southern tip of Florida. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 50 nm south of the front. A surface trough across central Florida is generating scattered showers off Port St. Lucie. Farther east convergent southerly winds are producing isolated thunderstorms from 22N to 30N between 52W and 58W. A robust surface trough embedded within the trade winds is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the Windward Islands from 01N to 07N between 42W and 54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident north of 23N between 55W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east and southeast, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 05N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 23N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles, mainly moderate ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build west-southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before retreating eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. This front will move off the U. S. southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the Atlantic waters east of Florida and north of the Bahamas starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. These conditions will shift eastward rest of the western Atlantic by late Tue. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front through Tue and spread southward, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters east of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during midweek.

Chan Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster