Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N and east of 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently occurring with this wave.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Most convection with this wave is in the eastern North Pacific waters.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 03N29W and then continues from 03N41W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A few showers are noted on satellite imagery near the broad area of low pressure in the western Gulf. The tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1018 mb ridge in the eastern Gulf sustain fresh to locally strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and north of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure from just offshore of eastern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche continues to produce bands of shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across eastern portions. Significant development is not anticipated before the low pressure area shifts inland over eastern Mexico by early Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America on Tue or Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the east-central Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the western Gulf through Sun night. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture combined to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, north of 18N and between 74W and 82W. This activity is also affecting portions of central and eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. Similar storms are also noted in the isthmus of Panama, Costa Rica, and nearby waters.

The tight pressure gradient between the sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 33 kt off northern Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida along 28N and into the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through Sun night to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge north of the area will reorganize Sun night through early Tue then shift slowly NE through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging along 27N, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found north of 17N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida along 28N and into the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place through Sun night. The ridge will reorganize Sun night through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun evening, then become SE to S winds across much of the area waters through midweek. Fresh SW winds will briefly develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun into Sun night, then become moderate winds through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U. S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado