Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front reaches southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N65W to a 1010 mb low near 29N67W, then continues as a cold front to 31N64W and turns northwestward to beyond 31N81W. Near- gale to Gale SW winds are expected just east of the low near 30N64W by 18Z late this afternoon. As the low pulls northeastward and weaken tonight, it should allow winds to drop below gale- force later this evening. Seas under these winds will peak at 10 to 12 ft during this period.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is south of the Cabo Verde Islands near 26W from 12N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 22W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 16N southward to over Venezuela. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the northeastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 15N southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. It is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar, then curves southwestward to 07N22W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 07N22W to 05N40W to the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N and west of 22W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is present up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection at the central and north-central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest ridge of high pressure at the eastern Gulf is maintaining gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft seas much of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic to near Hispaniola and Cuba. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection in the Gulf of Honduras, and as well as isolated thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas exist at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the combination of the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the eastern and central basin Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.

A stationary front reaches southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N65W to a 1010 mb low near 29N67W, then continues as a cold front to 31N64W and turns northwestward to beyond 31N81W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 200 nm east of this boundary east of 71W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 50 nm along either side of the rest of the boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong with locally near-gale S to SW winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted near and up to 250 nm east of the aforementioned frontal boundary. Otherwise, an elongated ridge associated with a large 1030 mb high near 30N35W is dominating the Atlantic north of 23N west of 35W with gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will move northeast and be absorbed by a stronger low pressure located north of the area later today. The cold front will shift southeastward, reaching from 31N58W to 27N65W to 24N71W by early Mon morning when fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas will continue to affect waters north of 28N between 54W and 61W. Another low pressure is going to enter into the Atlantic off the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast on Mon, and then dissipate as it moves eastward toward of Bermuda late on Tue. Looking ahead, a third low pressure area will move between northeastern Florida and Bermuda Wed and Thu.

Chan Posted 15 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster