Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ extends from 00N35W to 01N38W to 01N51W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough and east of 27W.

Gulf Of America

Low-level convergence from western Cuba to SE Texas results in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the central Gulf waters. Dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 90W and south of 26N, eastern Bay of Campeche and in the north- central Gulf waters. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist in the SE Gulf through Thu night. High pressure will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through late week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front is draped across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands, supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pressure gradient between this weakening front and higher pressures to the north support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the south-central and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight. High pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a storm-force low pressure in the North Atlantic to 31N51W and then to 23N57W, where it becomes a stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted near and ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and rough seas are occurring within behind this front. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found under the ridge between Florida and Bermuda.

In the NE Atlantic, a broad low pressure is producing large northerly swell, supporting rough seas north of 27N and between 17W and 37W, along with moderate to locally fresh westerly winds. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas pf 5-8 ft are present south of 23N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient prevails sustaining moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N51W to 23N58W, then stationary to eastern Cuba. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado