Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A cold front is analyzed from near 31N47W southwestward to 22N60W to the Great Bahama Bank near 21N75W. Recent scatterometer satellite data passes reveal west to northwest winds of 30 to 35 kt west of the front north of 27N and to 70W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 20 to 28 ft. However, very rough seas in excess of 12 ft extend well to the south of these gale winds to near 22N and between 50W and 74W due to the occurrence of significant northwest swell. Fresh to strong southwest winds are east of the front to roughly 33W and N of 24N. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8 to 18 ft in northwest swell. The front is forecast to reach from near 31N43W to 18N62W by early Mon afternoon. West to northwest strong to near gale-force winds are expected at that time west of the front to near 62W, and north of 26N along with seas of 17 to 26 ft in northwest swell. Fresh to strong winds will be north of 25N between the front and 71W at that time along with seas of 14 to 23 ft in northwest swell. Meanwhile, the gale-force winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds by early Tue morning. Very rough seas generated by these winds will propagate southeastward impacting most of the waters north of about 16N and northeast and east of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. The very rough seas are likely to finally subside to just below 12 ft by early Wed evening. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details on these events.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends southwestward to near 02N21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extend from 00N to 04N between 09W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection extend from 05S to 04N between 34W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered over the west-central Gulf near 24N91W, with a ridge stretching eastward across the remainder Gulf. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, with the highest of the seas located in the Straits of Florida, Bay of Campeche, and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters into late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly southerly flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night, just west of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the far western waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough, remnants of a former frontal boundary, extends from the Leeward Islands SW to offshore Colombia. Another surface trough is over the SW Caribbean from the offshore waters of Jamaica near 17N78W to central Panama. Otherwise, surface ridging extends from the Gulf of America to the NW Caribbean while surface ridging from the E subtropical Atlantic extends across the southern half of the central and eastern basin. The gradient of pressure between these ridges and lower pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds over the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh NE winds over the SW and portions of the NW basin. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate, highest offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the remnants of a frontal boundary extending from to just N of Colombia will be reinforced by a cold front tonight into Mon, with the combined front sliding east of the Leeward Islands by Tue. Winds will increase in the wake of the front, becoming strong initially offshore Colombia and Hispaniola tonight, then expanding to much of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, Mon through Wed, as high pressure in the western Atlantic builds southward toward the area. Rough seas will accompany these strong winds. Winds may pulse to gale force offshore Colombia Mon night and Tue night. In addition, large NW to N swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters tonight into Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and significant swell in the western and central Atlantic.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N47W southwestward to 22N60W to the Great Bahama Bank near 21N75W. High pressure centered over the Carolinas extends SE across the Bahamas in the wake of this front. Aside from the harsh marine conditions described in the Special features section associated with this front, moderate or weaker NE winds are ongoing along the Great Bahama Bank where seas are slight. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough extends from 30N45W to the Leeward Islands. Farther east, surface ridging dominates the E subtropical waters, which is anchored by a 1025 mb high near 28N25W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are south of this area of high pressure into the tropical Atlantic waters where seas are moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slide SE and out of the region by Tue. Behind it, gale-force winds will prevail N of 28N and E of 68W through Mon night, with strong NW winds dominating N of 25N and E of 73W. Very rough seas in the area of strong to gale-force winds will continue, with seas 12 ft or higher impacting all waters E of 75W through Tue. Peak seas along 31N to the SE of Bermuda can be expected tonight. Conditions will improve mid-week as high pressure traverses the waters.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos