Special Features

Gale Warning east of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- force winds are expected 03/1500 to at least 04/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https: //wwmiws. wmo. int

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 27W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44N, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this trough.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 55W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection observed from 07N to 09N between 55W and 57W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 00N35W to 00N55W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01S to 02N between 35W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a broad trough over the western Gulf is interacting with warmer sea surface temperatures to support numerous moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms across the far southeast Gulf, from off northeast Yucatan to off northwest Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active in the Big Bend area in the far northeast Gulf along a cold front from Slidell, Louisiana to Pine Island, Florida. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 03 UTC confirmed fresh NE to E winds following the front. Elsewhere, a 1016 mb high pressure area is centered near 27N85W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and a trough near Yucatan is supporting fresh E winds north of Yucatan. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 2-4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the cold front moving into the far northeast Gulf this morning will stall from southwest Florida to southeast Louisiana through Thu, then dissipate gradually by Sat. Expect fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas north of the front today and Thu. Meanwhile, a trough off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will extend farther north into the central Gulf today, and weak low pressure may form over the central Gulf through Thu. The low pressure may dissipate as it moves northward into the Louisiana coast through Fri. Strong to near- gale force winds are possible on the northern end of the trough over the north- central Gulf starting tonight as the low pressure forms. By Fri, these winds and seas will eventually merge with and enhance the ongoing conditions over the north- central Gulf, even as both the front and the low pressure dissipate. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild westward into the Gulf by Sat, supporting gentle to moderate SE breezes and moderate seas, except for fresh winds pulsing off the coast of Yucatan in the evening.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, with near-gale conditions sampled in the Gulf of Venezuela a little while ago. Concurrent altimeter satellite data confirmed rough seas across the central Caribbean as well. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except 3-5 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean off Panama this morning along the monsoon trough. Lingering Saharan dust over the eastern Caribbean is inhibiting any significant convection elsewhere, except a few showers may be active across the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and shift east through late today, allowing fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean to diminish slightly, although fresh to strong winds may pulse off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge may rebuild by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas across the central and northwest Caribbean by Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic.

A 1011 mb low pressure area is moving northeast past Bermuda, with a stalling frontal boundary extending to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds, rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Wed southwest of Bermuda, north of 27N. A second 1013 mb low pressure area is moving from Cape Hatteras to Bermuda with a reinforcing front currently reaching from 31N73W to Cape Canaveral, Florida, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. Farther east, the Atlantic is dominated by 1033 mb pressure southwest of the Azores near 34N32W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft seas south of the ridge from northwest Africa to the Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds and 5-6 ft elsewhere to include along the ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts merge into one front from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas tonight. The merged front will stall from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and South Florida by Thu night, then meander northward as it weakens through Sun.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen