Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- force winds are expected from 04/1500 to 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https: //wwmiws. wmo. int

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 45W and 53W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity across NE South America.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 03N34W and from 03N37W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 12N and east of 22W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from southern Florida to SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 27N88W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are present north of a line from western Cuba to southern Texas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters, east of 90W. For the forecast, the trough will track north-northwestward through Fri. Interaction between this trough and the front is going to sustain fresh to strong ENE to SE winds with moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Gulf, north of 25N through Fri evening. In addition, a persistent upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to enhance sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the aforementioned trough and front through Fri night. Gusty winds with low visibility and frequent lightning will accompany the strong thunderstorms. After the low moves into Louisiana and the stationary front dissipates on Sat, the Atlantic Ridge should build westward across northern Florida into the Gulf, bringing moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas back to the entire Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A 1033 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores extends southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, while fast- moving showers are passing across the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and shift east through Thu, allowing moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas to dominate much of the the Caribbean by Fri morning. The exception will be pulsing fresh to strong winds off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild north of the area by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas across the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 32N71W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida. Scattered showers are present ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough to locally very rough seas are found behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are evident ahead of the front to 64W and north of 29N. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging centered around a 1033 mb high located at 35N33W, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas are active north of a stationary front extending southwestward from 31N71W to Miami, Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are also active along the front between 30N and Bermuda. Winds and seas will diminish across the area through tomorrow night as the front dissipates and high pressure starts to build over the western Atlantic into next week.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado