Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01S49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near 28N85W to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds along with seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail in the eastern Bay of Campeche and extending northward to near 23N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2 to 4 ft, are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the basin. This pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate through Tue.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, across the basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough will move slowly westward and weaken through Sat. This feature will disrupt the typical weather pattern across the basin with a weaker than usual pressure gradient. This weaker pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos to southwest of Bermuda. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the waters N of 26N between 35W and 70W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL