Tropical Waves

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 16N southward into northern Venezuela, and moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the northwestern Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to near 06N23W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N23W to near the coastal border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 05N west of 20W, and also up to 190 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A thermal trough across the spine of Florida is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the southwestern coast of Florida. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge across the northern Gulf is supporting mainly gentle southeasterly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas for most of the Gulf, except moderate to locally fresh NE winds just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the ridge will generally maintain a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow across the Gulf through the weekend, with the exception of winds pulsing to fresh to strong off the northern Yucatan Peninsula from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds at the south-central basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras into next week. Seas at 7 to 10 ft are present at the central basin, while 4 to 6 ft are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough is coupling with an upper-level low to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between 71W and 76W. A cold front curves southwestward from the near the Azores across 30N32W to northeast of the Leeward Islands at 26N58W. Patchy showers are seen along and up to 80 nm south of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 23N west of 65W. Otherwise, a 1025 Bermuda High is supporting gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells north of 24N between 35W and 65W. To the south from 06N to 24N/23N between 35W and 65W/Lesser Antilles, including the southeast Bahamas, moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and 4 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough and upper-level low will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters between the Bahamas and 70W as well as north of 27N between 72W and 76W through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, the large dome of Bermuda High will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period.

Chan Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster