Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force northwest to north winds and rough seas of 10 to 16 ft in north swell are spreading into the Atlantic waters east of 78W early this morning, behind an arctic cold front that extends from 31N70W to near Palm Beach, Florida. These gale conditions are expected to persist immediately behind the front this morning, as it moves southeastward, before gale- force winds behind the area remain north of 31N by early afternoon. Otherwise, widespread strong to near-gale force northerly winds producing very rough seas in northwest to north swell are expected behind the front today. The N swell will reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean late Tue night into early Wed as it merges with easterly trade wind swell moving through the regional waters. Seas will begin to gradually subside from NW to SE Wed through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period N to NE swell continues to affect most of the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 12 ft or greater are currently from 08N to 21N between 26W and 49W, and from 10N to 21N east of 24W, where peak seas are 13 ft, per recent satellite altimeter data. Global wave models show northerly swell of 14 to 16 seconds mixing with NE swell of 9 to 10 seconds across this area. With persistent fresh to strong northeast trade winds, the area of 12 ft or greater seas will expand westward to near 50W this morning Mon before they slowly subside from NE to SW going into Tue. For information east of 35W please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website: https: //wwmiws. wmo. int/index. php/metareas/affiche/2. For information west of 35W, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12. 5W, and continues southwestward to 04N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N32W to 04. 5N40W to 04N49W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 07. 5N, and east of 32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06. 5N between 32W and 38W.

Gulf Of America

An arctic cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico as a large 1040 mb high pressure system across the eastern U. S. builds in over the basin behind it. A few showers are noted along the front across central and west portions. The very tight pressure gradient between the front and the high pressure is bringing strong to near-gale force northeast winds, with gusts to gale force north of the front per latest ASCAT data. Seas with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range based on the latest satellite altimeter data. The latest ASCAT satellite data shows gentle to moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere across the basin south of the front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move south across the basin and exit the Gulf tonight. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Thu evening and reach from near Tampa Bay to SE Texas Fri evening then lift northward and dissipate.

Caribbean Sea

Atlantic high pressure has shifted eastward into the central Atlantic. As as result, the trade winds over the eastern Caribbean have diminished to moderate speeds, but continue at fresh speeds across the south-central Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate trade winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail over most of the basin east of about 82W, with the exception of higher seas of 7 to 9 ft from 11N to 15N between 73W and 81W. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are west of 81W. Otherwise, a trough is analyzed over the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate to strong convection is depicted south of 13N, and west of 80W in association to another surface trough offshore of Nicaragua, and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extending across Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the south central Caribbean through Tue as Atlantic high pressure remains well NE of the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Tue. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean this evening, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then will stall and gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure will build into the W Atlantic Wed through Fri to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale warning for the western Atlantic waters offshore northern Florida, and for a significant swell event in the eastern Atlantic.

An arctic cold front continues to move southeastward across the western Atlantic this morning, extending from near 31N70W to near Palm Beach, Florida. Outside of the areas of northerly gales immediately behind the front, strong to near-gale force NW to N winds and very rough seas follow the front. Seas well offshore of NE Florida have built to 8 to 12 ft in the past few hours. A trough is analyzed from near 29N72W southwestward to northwestern Bahamas. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found along the trough. Another surface trough to the southeast, and a deep layered trough are supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection north of 23. 5N between 61W and 71W. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are found along the troughs, except for moderate to fresh northwest winds north of 29N. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are spreading across the Bahamas and adjacent waters ahead of the front. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west of the troughs, except for lower seas of 2 to 5 ft across the Bahamas.

A 1031 mb high pressure is near 38N36W. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure across the tropics to its south is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the waters south of about 25N and east of 60W. Seas of 8 to 13 ft prevail with these trade winds, as noted above in the Special Features section.

For the forecast W of 55W, Gale-force winds will continue immediately behind the cold front east of the Bahamas through midday today. Otherwise, the front will continue to progress southeastward and be followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and quickly building seas through this evening. The front will reach from 31N57W to the central Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida by Mon evening, stall from 30N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue morning, then slowly dissipate through Wed afternoon. Large N swell will build across the regional waters behind the front today through Tue before subsiding. The Bermuda High will dominate the regional waters Thu through Fri.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling