Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and west of 16W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front straddles the northern Gulf coast. A weak pressure gradient is noted across the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will meander across the northern Gulf through Fri. Weak high pressure is over the eastern basin and will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure that will build from the N on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Strong reinforcing high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, and gale conditions, first over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night, then over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon. Areas of dense fog may form mainly along and just offshore the Texas coast tonight into Fri morning.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends a ridge into the Caribbean Sea, forcing fresh to locally near gale- force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface trough is moving across the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated, light showers in the area.

For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week, while winds pulse to near gale force offshore of Colombia at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough in the SW North Atlantic extends into the NW Bahamas and along with divergence aloft, generates scattered convection north of 25N and east of 70W. Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are noted north of this boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge that sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas, mainly south of 28N and east of 60W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found south of 25N and between 60W and 70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure over the SE United States extending to offshore northern Florida will continue to weaken tonight as a cold front slowly moves across the southeastern United States. Stronger continental high pressure will build in behind the front as the front moves across the NW part of the forecast area on Fri night, where it will stall through early Sat. Low pressure is expected to form along the western portion of the front and shift northward Sat night into Sun, pulling the front northward as a warm front. The low will deepen as it tracks eastward well to the N of the forecast waters through Sun night. Fresh to strong SW winds will then develop over the NW forecast waters Sun and Sun night in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida late Sun night. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N76W to western Cuba by Mon afternoon, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front. By late Tue, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front to roughly a line from near 31N70W to 26N80W.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado