Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 03N to 18N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 16N between 25W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 02N to 18N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 68W south of 20N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active from 12N to 15N between 62W and 67W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 15N16W, and continues southwestward to 06N25W and to near 06N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to 12N between 12W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

1018 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N85W, with a ridge extending toward the northeast coast of Mexico. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 4-6 ft over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf for much of the week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through the week.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge extends north of the area across the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh E winds across the eastern Caribbean, and fresh to strong E to SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft over the southwest Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In addition to the scattered showers and thunderstorm near the tropical wave, trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between eastern Panama and northeast Nicaragua, and between eastern Honduras and the southeast Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting Mon night through Tue night. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Broad high pressure that is anchored by a 1025 high center at 33N37W covers the area north of about 18N. The related pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure over the tropical Atlantic are supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across most of the Atlantic south of about 22N along with seas 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate variable winds are north of 22N and west of 35W along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Upper-level jet dynamics along the southeastern periphery of a broad upper trough that is along the U. S. east coast are sustaining an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N between 65W and 75W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge will prevail across much of the waters through the week. Surface troughing will linger near and offshore Florida the early part of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N will pulse to strong speeds between the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola through the forecast period.

Posted 15 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen