Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends from 12N15W to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from 00N23W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 16W and 23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 00N to 05N between 10W and 17W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A stationary front extends westward from Naples, Florida to 21N95W. A morning scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds are north of the front, although more recent buoy observations indicate these winds may be diminishing this afternoon. Similarly, earlier altimeter satellite data indicated seas to 8 ft over the northern Gulf, but buoys are showing seas are largely below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the remainder of the waters, with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the western portion of the front will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume moving southward and move across Cuba and the Yucatan Channel, before stalling along about 21N Wed and dissipating early Thu. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

The cold front moving across the Gulf and western Atlantic is displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across the basin this afternoon. Seas are 5-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will develop Tue night and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late-season cold front moving slowly across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate across eastern Cuba early Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A cold front extends from just west of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas to South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front. Fresh to strong NE winds with 7-10 ft seas are evident north of the front. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are also active along a trough ahead of the front extending from 30N68W to the central Bahamas. A broad ridge dominates the remainder of the discussion area, anchored by 1028 mb high pressure over the north- central Atlantic west of the Azores near 38N41W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys early tonight, from 31N60W to the NW coast of Cuba by Tue afternoon, and then begin to stall and weaken from 31N55W to 25N60W to eastern Cuba along 21N Wed morning. Winds will diminish Wed as the front stalls and dissipates along 21N by early Thu. Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu through Sat, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE swell will linger near the weakening front Tue night through Thu morning, including waters near the Windward Passage.

Posted 32 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen