Tropical Waves

A far eastern tropical wave is near 24W from 13N southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 14N between 19W and 31W. Another perturbation behind this wave will merge with the wave later today.

An eastern tropical wave is near 47. 5W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 07N to 09N between 45W and 52W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58. 5W from 17N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 11N between 51W and 61W.

The tropical wave that was over the western Caribbean before this analysis has now transitioned into the East Pacific. For more information about this wave, please read the TWDEP.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N17W, then curves southwestward to 02N36W. An ITCZ continues westward from 02N36W to 03N49W. Convection near these areas is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers and strong thunderstorms south of 12N and west of 77W.

Gulf Of America

An upper-level trough extends southwestward from the eastern Gulf to beyond near Veracruz, Mexico. This feature is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high at the east-central Gulf continues to dominate the Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends across central Florida to a 1021 mb high over the eastern Gulf near 27. 5N85. 5W, and will dominate the basin through the weekend. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed night, then mainly fresh winds there afterward.

Caribbean Sea

A broad Atlantic Ridge near 26N continues to support a robust trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Convergent trades are producing scattered moderate convection south of the Cayman Islands, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Strong with locally near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 12 to 14 ft are present at the south-central basin, while fresh to strong E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas exist at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas 3 to 5 ft are noted over the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic E of Bermuda west-southwestward across central Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and moderate to rough seas in the central basin through Wed morning, then become confined to the south- central basin Wed and Wed night before expanding northward again Thu through the weekend. Expect winds near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia, during the nighttime and early morning hours, except for Wed night through Thu morning. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed morning, diminishing to moderate winds and seas afterward.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level low near 26N61W is triggering isolated thunderstorms from 25N to 27N between 59W and 61W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic basin. A broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic E of Bermuda west-southwestward across central Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft, north of 22N between 35W and the Florida east coast/Bahamas. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 9 ft seas are seen. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the region through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the N coast of Hispaniola each late afternoon through night through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected S of 22N through Thu. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV