Special Features

Large Swell in the Central and Eastern Atlantic: Large N to NE swell is generating rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft in the central and eastern Atlantic from 18N to 22N between 24W and 44W. These seas will persist through this evening before gradually subsiding below 12 ft late tonight.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information this event.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia then runs southwestward to near 07N16W. An ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 05N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 01N to 07N between 33W and 22W and south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N west of 15W.

Gulf Of America

A weak stationary front extends westward across the Florida Straits to north of the Yucatan Channel. Patchy showers are seen up to 30 nm along either side of the front. A surface trough over the western central Bay of Campeche is generated widely scattered at the central Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge is supporting mostly gentle ENE to SSE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will prevail over much of the Gulf this weekend. Locally fresh E to NE winds are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche and over the Campeche Bank each afternoon and night Sun into next week, as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and propagates westward. Looking ahead, fresh E winds and moderate seas will develop over the central and eastern Gulf on Mon as a cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States and progresses over the northwestern tropical Atlantic. Strong E winds and rough seas may develop through the Florida Straits Mon into early Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Two surface troughs are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and far southwestern basin. Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident at the south-central and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are dominate the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades with seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough seas will occur offshore of northern Colombia through at least the middle of next week as low pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over much of the Caribbean through this weekend. In the Atlantic waters, rough seas in E swell will continue this weekend before diminishing early next week. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba each night and morning through next week. Looking ahead, widespread fresh to locally strong NE winds will develop over the central and western Caribbean early next week as a cold front stalls over the northwestern tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from the northwestern Atlantic across 31N66W to the northwest Bahamas. Widely scattered showers are occurring near and up to 100 nm southeast of the front. A surface trough curves southwestward from 32N53W through a 1016 mb low pressure centered near 29N56W to 25N60W. Patchy showers are present up to 80 nm along either side of these features. A surface trough is causing scattered showers north of French Guiana and Suriname from 07N to 11N between 47W and 57W. A cold front curves northwestward from northwestern Africa to near 27N31W. Scattered showers are present up to 80 nm along either side of the front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate NNE to E to SW winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate to large northeasterly swell dominate north of 20N and west of 55W. Farther east north of 20N between 55W and 35W outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh with locally strong E to SSE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will prevail south of 22N this weekend. Widespread strong to locally near-gale force NE winds and rough seas are expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic by early Mon, as a strong cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States. The front will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, supporting expanding strong winds and rough seas into the central Atlantic. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible east of 70W Tue through midweek. Looking ahead, strong winds and rough seas may develop in the central waters east of 75W by the middle of next week as another cold front moves through the region.

Chan Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster