1 advisories in effect for 7 regions in the area
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Hurricane
Local 10’s 2026 Hurricane Survival Guide
Stay prepared for the Atlantic Hurricane Season with the Local 10 Weather Authority’s 2026 Hurricane Survival Guide.
Updates
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Offshore the East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure (the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United States. The system is expected to emerge offshore the east coast of the United States on Friday. Environmental conditions then appear to be marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday as the system moves northeastward at 15 to 20 mph across the Western Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two. Additional information on the rainfall potential can be found in rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center online at www. wpc. ncep. noaa. gov. More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean. weather. gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1. php Formation chance through 48 hours
Low
10 percent.Formation chance through 7 days
Low
10 percent.Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney/Kelly
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24/25W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 63W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted S of 14N between 61 and 64W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 82W and 85W.
Monsoon Trough Itcz
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends SW to near 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N27W to 06N41W. It resumes from 04N45W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 15W and 47W.
Gulf Of America
A ridge extends from a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near 27N55W into the eastern Gulf, with a surface trough extending from eastern Mexico, across the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds across much of the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of the Gulf, reaching 8 ft off the coast of Louisiana.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri. Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the Louisiana coast this morning to shift eastward with these winds through Thu night before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide late Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward along 27N-28N and across south-central Florida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are across the remainder of the Caribbean.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north of the area through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through Mon night. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW portions through Sat as an upper-level trough digs into the area.
Atlantic Ocean
A frontal trough extends from 31N33W to 26N42W. Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. The rest of the discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored by a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near 27N55W, and a 1023 mb high centered near 32N21W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high pressure centers. Moderate to locally fresh winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE Florida. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 75W will expand eastward to near 70W through tonight, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U. S. The front is expected to move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore NE Florida by Sun, allowing the moderate to fresh SW winds to shift eastward ahead of it across the northern waters.
Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL