Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 19W from 13N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection, associated with the wave, covers the area from 02N to 07N between 15W and 20W. Similar convective activity is noted in the vicinity of 06N13W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 46W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Its axis is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Convection is limited over the SW Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 02. 5N45W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed S of 04N between 23W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system supports gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE to E winds to the N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with these winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between the western Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana, including nearby waters.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken into midweek. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W Sat night through Tue as a weak trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become southeast at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the above mentioned trough.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Another area of fresh to strong trade winds is noted, per scatterometer data, over the eastern Caribbean, particularly from 14N to 17. 5N between 60W and 64W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the east and central portions of the basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where slight seas are noted. A few showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting parts of Cuba, the area between Cuba and Jamaica, and Haiti, including adjacent waters. Pockets of low- level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are affecting the remainder of the region generating isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean into early next week creating rough seas over these waters. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next week as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, is analyzed from 31N34W to 22N56W. Mainly low clouds are near the trough axis. High pressure of 1026 mb centered E of Bermuda near 32N59W dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather pattern, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are observed between the Canary Islands. Similar wind speeds are blowing across the Cabo Verde Islands and regional waters, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that winds are pulsing to strong force off northern Hispaniola creating moderate to locally rough seas. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate most of the forecast region this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun afternoon into Mon before stalling near 26N, then begin to weaken, dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster GR