Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N14. 5W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 20W and 25W, and from 02S to 03N between 34W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a 1004 mb low over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the basin. These winds are generating seas in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge extends westward across the northern Gulf states and will dominate the Gulf region through Sat morning, then weaken Sat afternoon and night as a cold front approaches. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with occasional strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the northwestern Gulf and through the Florida Straits through Sat. A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Sun and move southeastward through early next week, reaching from near Fort Myers, FL to 23N94W to the central Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Expected strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic ridge continues along about 34N and into the SE U. S. , and will weaken modestly through Sun morning. The pressure gradient between this surface ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh winds pulsing to strong with rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night, before winds and seas diminish over the weekend. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, and yield fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 26N55W to 17N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure is centered N and W of the trough. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 20N between 50W and 75W. A second trough is over the eastern waters from 28N25W to 20N22W. High pressure is north of the trough. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh winds N of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Mostly rough seas prevail N of 20N between 40W and 75W, and N of 24N between 23W and 40W. Moderate seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extends from the central Atlantic west-southwestward into the SE U. S. , and will drift slowly SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas, through this weekend. By late Sun, the high will have weakened and shifted to NE of Bermuda, while an inverted surface trough forms from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U. S. early Mon and move slowly southeastward, reaching from 31N72W to central Florida by Tue morning.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL