Melissa slightly stronger Category 4 hurricane, threatening catastrophic flooding in Jamaica, Haiti
Hurricane Melissa strengthened into a major Category 4 hurricane, with the possibility of intensifying to a Category 5 storm Sunday night, unleashing torrential rain and threatening to cause catastrophic flooding in the northern Caribbean, including Haiti and Jamaica, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Melissa, located to the south of Jamaica.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 42 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Hogsett
Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16. 4N 76. 9W at 26/1800 UTC or 100 nm S of Kingston Jamaica, moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft near the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 12N to 20N between 70W and 80W. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday. Melissa is expected to bring extremely heavy rainfall to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. Very heavy rainfall is expected for eastern Cuba as well, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes. gov/graphics_at3. shtml? rainqpf
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.
A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 22N44W to 11N52W, and is moving northwestward at 5 kt as it is interacting with an upper-level trough in the vicinity. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the north end of the wave axis and also along a nearby surface trough, generally from 19N to 24N between 35W and 45W.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then extends south-southwestward to 09. 5N18W. An ITCZ curves westward from 09. 5N18W to 07N32W to 10N45W. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 31W and 46W. More scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 11N and E of 24W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered strong convection in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 13N and W of 81W.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a developing stationary front, generally north of 26N between 85W and 91W. Fresh to strong E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are active over the eastern half of the basin and through the Florida Straits as the pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the northeastern United States and Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf and through the Florida Straits through late tonight. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will progress into the northwestern Gulf today and drift southeastward early this week, supporting moderate N to NE winds over the basin. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf Tue night into Wed and will progress southeastward over the region through late week. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front early Wed through late Thu. Winds may reach gale force along the coast of Mexico off Tampico and Veracruz Wed.
Please read the Special Features section concerning Major Hurricane Melissa.
No significant convection is evident outside of the thunderstorm activity discussed above in the Special Features and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections. Outside of the area of Melissa in the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, Major Hurricane Melissa is near 16. 4N 76. 6W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Melissa will move to 16. 4N 77. 1W this evening, 16. 6N 77. 8W Mon morning, 16. 9N 78. 0W Mon evening, 17. 8N 77. 7W Tue morning, 19. 2N 76. 6W Tue evening, and 20. 9N 75. 1W Wed morning. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Thu.
A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda to near 28N79W. Fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted west of 70W. A trough reaches from the tail end of a stationary front and a surface low near 30N27W to 29N44W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in N to NE swell are noted N of the trough, with showers along much of the trough axis as well. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted near and to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Gentle to moderate E breezes and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from south of Bermuda to offshore of east-central Florida. Fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas will prevail west of 70W through late tonight as a strong pressure gradient prevails between the front, high pressure to the north and Major Hurricane Melissa in the central Caribbean. A low pressure system associated with the stationary front will push offshore of the southeastern U. S. on Mon, leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 78W Mon afternoon through Tue, and fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the system offshore of northern Florida Tue through midweek. Rough seas will build over this region by early Tue, with seas expanding farther south and east Tue and Wed. Elsewhere, Major Hurricane Melissa is strengthening in the central Caribbean. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when moving over southeastern Cuba late Tuesday. The hurricane is forecast to move rapidly toward the northeast by mid to late week. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U. S. by late week, supporting increasing winds and building seas over the western Atlantic.
Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams
