Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at gale-force tonight through early Sat morning, and again Sat night into Sun morning. These winds are forecast to produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has is near 34W from 11N southwestward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 10N between 30W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 18N southwestward, and moving westward near 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from the coast of Suriname to 13N between 50W and 60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 19N southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. It seems to be enhancing scattered moderate convection near the East Pacific monsoon trough near Costa Rica and western Panama.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar, then extends southwestward to 05N30W. An ITCZ continues from 05N30W to 03N40W and to 03N34W, then resumes from 03N37W to just north of the Amazon River Delta at 02N49W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone. Widely scattered convection is noted up to 95 nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment.

Gulf Of America

The northern tip of an East Pacific tropical wave is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. Convergent surface winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a surface ridge running westward from a 1020 mb high just offshore central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted at the north-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist over the Gulf region through midweek next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across the northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and lower pressure at northern Colombia is sustaining strong to near-gale ENE winds and 11 to 13 seas at the south- central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate the north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient is going to maintain fresh to strong trades and rough to locally very rough seas into midweek next week. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward Passage late Sat afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level low southeast of Bermuda near 29N60W is triggering scattered moderate convection near the northern portion of its associated trough, from 25N to 30N between 54W and 64W. Farther southeast, divergent flow aloft is generating similar convection from 22N to 26N between 46W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A broad subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1030 mb high near 34N46W across 31N65W to beyond central Florida is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, north of 27N and west of 35W. Farther south from 08N to 27N and west of 35W, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will persist across the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north-to-south aligned surface trough located near 62W will shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning while dissipating. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

Chan Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster