Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has it axis along 17W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 14N and east of 27W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring at this time in association with the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N-10N between 50W-56W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring at this time in association with the wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W along the coast of Mauritania and continues southwestward to 04N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 14N and east of 27W.

Gulf Of America

A 1023 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf contributing toward moderate or weaker winds across the Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the E Gulf of 4-6 ft in the W Gulf. No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin this week. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula nightly during the first half of the week. A moderate pressure gradient will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late tonight before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf through the week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, the trades are moderate to locally fresh. Seas are 7-9 ft over the central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight through Tue night. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the week.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 34N35W to 26N80W in the west. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing a large area of moderate to fresh trades south of 22N. From 15N-23N east of 35W, the NE trades are fresh to locally strong. Finally, the trades are fresh to strong just north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6-8 ft in the areas of fresh to strong trades and 3-6 ft elsewhere. No other deep convection is occurring away from the two convectively- active tropical waves over the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly fresh to locally strong speeds off northern Hispaniola and seas may build up to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea