Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A cold front has entered the northern Gulf, extending from 30N85W to 26N97W. To the S, a surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas are present at the northeastern Gulf and offshore of New Orleans. Gentle to moderate N to NE to SE winds and slight seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will quickly push across the E Gulf today before dissipating by Fri. The front will be accompanied by fresh NW to N winds. Afterwards, conditions across the entire Gulf will be quiescent for next couple of days as subtle high pressure prevails. The next cold front should reach the N waters on Sun with increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. To the W, another trough extends across the Yucatan Channel with similar activity. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with moderate seas are at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and E Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the tropical North Atlantic will be fresh to strong with rough seas in large E swell through early next week. Some of the swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages in the Lesser Antilles. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Mon with increasing winds and seas behind the front.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening frontal boundary has transitions into a surface trough, analyzed from 31N58W to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough between 61W-78W. To the W, another surface trough is analyzed along the east coast of Florida. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N44W.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds and moderate seas are noted offshore from northeastern Florida ahead of the next cold front. Otherwise, moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and rough seas in moderate to large northerly swell exist north of 22N between 55W and the Florida east coast. At the central Atlantic north of 23N between 35W and 42W, light to gentle winds and rough seas prevail in large mixed swell. For the tropical Atlantic, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and moderate seas exist.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the W-central Atlantic will dissipate this morning. The next cold front will extend from near 31N74W to the Florida Straits this morning, to 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N62W Sat morning. Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the front will be fresh to strong through Fri. Additionally, rough seas due to mixed SE and N swell will continue to impact the waters south of 25N east of 65W this morning and extend through early next week. Winds will improve across forecast waters Fri night through the weekend. Another cold front will reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun afternoon with increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

Posted 33 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster ERA