Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 09N with axis near 39W, moving west at 5 kt. Convection associated with this wave has diminished this morning.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 01N34W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 07N and between 17W and 33W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front has stalled from the Florida Big Bend to near the U. S. Mexico border. Scattered moderate convection is N of this boundary offshore Texas and Louisiana. Ridging associated with a 1015 mb high pressure in the eastern Gulf dominates the rest of the basin, supporting tranquil weather. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift N as a warm front late tonight through Sat, with the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading to the north-central and northeastern Gulf by tonight. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the Gulf from the east. Winds will pulse to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front.

Caribbean Sea

Broad high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressure in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with nighttime pulses to near-gale in the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through early next week. Similar conditions are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras, through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from 31N77W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. This front is causing little sensible weather, and high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb center near 27N61W, dominates moves of the basin W of 35W, translating to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A surface trough extends south from 31N to 25N along 52W, inducing scattered moderate convection N of 28N between 48W and 52W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from the Canary Islands to 27N32W. Fresh NW winds and rough seas are N of this front.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continued weakening through Sat as it shifts eastward north of 28N. Southerly moderate winds ahead of the front occurring off NE Florida will diminish this afternoon. A stronger cold front is expected to follow a similar path Mon through Tue, followed by moderate to fresh winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Meanwhile, a surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 28N65W will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola might Sat through Mon nights.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik