Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough remains over west Africa. The ITCZ extends from 04. 5N15W to 02S43. 5W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 90 nm north of the ITCZ west of 30W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered east of the Carolina coast, southwestward to the northern Gulf. This pattern is maintaining gentle E breezes across the basin, except for moderate SE winds off the coast of Texas and northern Tamaulipas. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted at this time.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge east of Florida and a deepening low pressure system over the U. S. Midwest will tighten the pressure gradient over the W and central Gulf later this week. This will lead to moderate to fresh S return flow over those waters Wed night through Fri night. Looking ahead, that low pressure will pull a cold front over the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to near gale N to NE winds expected behind it Sat night into Sun night.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are active of off Colombia. The convergence of these winds is supporting a few showers off eastern Panama. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, ridging north of the area will force fresh to strong NE winds over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Fresh NE winds will develop over the Windward Passage tonight through Wed evening. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will begin to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through Sat night, while trades elsewhere will generally remain moderate to fresh. Additionally, large N swell should impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu and likely diminishing on Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 25N71W, then is stationary across the western Bahamas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active within 240 nm east of the front, north of 24N. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active from 22N to 24N between 62W and 66W. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front north of 28. 5N between 50W and 59W. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds follow the front elsewhere. Behind the front, seas are 8 to 13 ft primarily in N to NE swell north of 28N, and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere north of 20N and east of 50W. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front reaches from 31N33W to 27N42W. Gentle to moderate winds persist east of 45W, and north of 20N, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 9 ft dominate the tropical Atlantic south of 20N. Of note, an area of Saharan dust is evident this afternoon north of 05N and east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move from 28N55W to the central Bahamas Wed morning, then dissipate by Thu. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will pull north of our waters by this evening. In the wake of the front, large to very large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding eastward north of 28N through Wed night. 8 ft seas will progress equatorward reaching 20N by Thu before diminishing on Fri. Winds will become quiescent over forecast waters from Wed through Sat, as a high pressure ridge settles in along 27N. Looking ahead, a strong cold front should emerge from the SE United States coast on Sun, followed by increasing NW winds and building seas.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV