Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 00N36W. Scattered moderate convection from 01N to 04N east of 23W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A cold front has entered the far NE Gulf, extending from the Florida Big Bend to the mouth of the Mississippi River. N of the boundary, moderate E winds prevail. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure is over the north-central Gulf near 27N89W. A surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate NE to E winds and 3-5 ft seas in the bay of Campeche, with gentle breezes for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate across the NE Gulf by Wed, and weak high pressure will again build over the northeast Gulf through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

Weak 1013 mb low pressure is centered between northeast Honduras and Jamaica, with a surface trough extending SE to 13N78W. Another westward-moving surface trough is noted along 67W in the SE basin. Winds through the Caribbean are being regulated by the relatively modest gradient between lower pressure from the aforementioned features and high pressure to the north, leading to fresh NE to E winds just S of the Greater Antilles as well as through the Windward Passage and offshore Colombia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, 1020 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic centered E of the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola through tonight. A weakening stationary front extending from the central Atlantic through the U. S. V. I. will drift NW and gradually dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia tonight and persist through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A cold front has entered the far NW waters from 31N77W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. N of this boundary, strong NE winds and rapidly building seas exist. A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N48W to just NE of the northern Leeward Islands. Some fresh S winds persist E of this boundary N of 28N to 45W, with rough seas to 9 ft on both sides of the boundary, N of 27N between 43W and 49W. A ridge axis between this two features exits SW through the Bahamas and across South Florida, creating a zone of gentle anticyclonic winds and moderate seas.

In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is nearly stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing strong NE winds NW of the islands, with associated rough seas in an area N of 22N between 30W and the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate trades and seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany a cold front which will reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida, by this afternoon. Winds and seas will then diminish through Wed as the front stalls from 31N63W to central Florida, then dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will persist through Thu across the region. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida on Sat, followed by strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas. Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik