Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33. 5W, S of 11N, and is nearly stationary. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 01S31W, with the tropical wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west of the tropical wave near 00N36W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N47W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N along both the ITCZ and the monsoon trough, and near the tropical wave.

Gulf Of America

A cold front was analyzed at 1200 UTC from the south-central LA coast to coastal Deep South Texas. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from near 26N93W southwestward to the Mexican coast near and to the NW of Veracruz. Scattered showers are seen along the cold front. Moderate to fresh SE winds are confirmed by scatterometer data W of 87W to the trough and S of 25N. Winds behind the front are from the NE at moderate to fresh speeds. Seas are 4-6 ft W of 88W, and 1-4 ft E of 88W.

For the forecast, a weak cold front stretches southwestward from southern Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas, with a surface ridge in control for the rest of the Gulf waters. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf today, then spread to the north-central and northeastern Gulf tonight as the front moves farther south. The front will stall just beyond the Texas coastal waters by this evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, and reach from north-central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the fronts.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the W Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong E winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and southwest Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades with nighttime pulses to near-gale force at the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through early next week. Similar conditions are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras, through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N54W then continues southwestward to near 27N61W. A frontal remnant trough then extends from that point to near 29N69W. Scattered showers are seen ahead of the front, generally N of 25N and W of 50W. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds and 4-7 ft seas are behind the front, while gentle to moderate E winds and 3-5 ft seas are ahead of the front. Surface ridging and gentle to moderate trades prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic. Moderate seas prevail E of 55W, while seas W of 55W and away from the front mentioned above are generally 2-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front extends from 31N54W to 27N61W, with scattered moderate convection present N of 25N within of about 240 nm E-SE of the front. The front is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out today. Another front will move off northern Florida tonight, gradually losing definition as it shifts across waters north of 28N through Sat. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extending from near 30N55W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will be in place during the forecast period, allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area. Meanwhile, moderate winds off northern Hispaniola might pulse to strong during Sat and Sun nights.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams