Special Features

METEO-FRANCE Gale Warning: A low pres system analyzed near 31N13W 1005 mb, is generating gale-force NW winds across the areas of Canarias and Madeira. These conditions will continue through late tonight. The low is expected to move SE within the next 24 hours while weakening and then dissipating. Rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https: //wwmiws. wmo. int/index. php/metareas/display/2 for more information.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale- force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at least Sat night. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ mainly W of 20W.

Gulf Of America

Broad surface ridging extends across the basin with generally quiet weather. Winds are moderate to fresh across the basin and seas are in the moderate range, except for slight seas nearshore in the E Gulf.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge southwestward into the SE U. S. into the weekend, with the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf, except NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche. Expect winds to pulse fresh to strong each night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

No organized convection is ongoing across the area, though there is a patch of some shower activity between Venezuela/Colombia and Hispaniola. Otherwise, surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh NE winds across the lee side of Cuba to the NW Caribbean. Seas in the regions of highest winds are rough, with moderate seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, broad Atlantic high pressure will maintain a ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U. S. into the weekend to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will subside modestly Thu through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

Although high pressure dominates the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin, there are a few smaller weather features to note. The tail end of a stalled front enters the area near 31N55W and extends to 25N65W. Moderate deep convection is present near the boundary, mainly north of 24N between 50W and 62W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted west of the boundary to near 76W along with rough seas. Lastly, the tail end of a cold front extends from Morocco from 24N16W through 21N27N to 23N36W, though no significant convection is occurring near that boundary per conventional METEOSAT satellite imagery. Fresh to strong trades dominate the waters southeast of a line from 31N30W to near Hispaniola with moderate to fresh winds across the majority of the remainder of the waters. As mentioned in the Special Features section, seas are elevated across much of the area due to long period swell propagating from the gale-force low near Morocco, with moderate seas across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will become diffuse tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas N of the front will also diminish tonight. However, rough seas will linger into Wed night while expanding southeastward and merging with easterly trade wind swell S of 25N and E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic during the next few days and produce fresh to strong E winds mostly south of 25N.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA