Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 25W from Cabo Verde southward to 03N, and is moving west at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35N from 04-17N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 02-17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75-76W, south of 20N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 10N19W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N19W to 08N25W, from 08N27W to 09N34W, from 09N37N to 09N43W, and from 09N46W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 12N between 25W and 55W.

Gulf Of America

The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin. Widely scattered moderate convection is active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, as confirmed in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of these winds will increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach near- gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night tonight through Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along 75W will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean waters today.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N38W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward into central Florida through Thu. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, beginning tonight.

$$ Adams Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster