Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough remains over west Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 02S45W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is active within 90 nm north of the ITCZ west of 30W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure centered over the Carolina coast southwestward to the northern Gulf. This pattern is maintaining gentle E breezes across the basin, except for moderate SE off the coast of Texas and northern Tamaulipas. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted at this time.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge east of Florida and a deepening low pressure system over the U. S. Midwest will tighten the pressure gradient over the W and central Gulf later this week. This will lead to moderate to fresh S return flow over those waters Wed night through Fri night. Looking ahead, that low pressure will pull a cold front over the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds expected behind it Sat night.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northwest Caribbean south of central Cuba. This activity is ahead of a mid/upper trough just north of the area, and along a surface trough reaching from the central Bahamas through central Cuba. A few showers are active between Honduras and Grand Cayman as well. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are active off Colombia. The convergence of these winds is supporting a few showers off eastern Panama. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, ridging north of the area will force fresh to strong NE winds over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Fresh NE winds will develop over the Windward Passage today through Wed evening. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will begin to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through the rest of the forecast period, while trades elsewhere will generally remain at moderate to fresh. Looking ahead, large N swell should impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 25N70W, then is stationary across the central Bahamas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active within 240 nm east of the front, north of 27N. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active from 22N to 24N between 63W and 66W, and from 23N to 25N between 55W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds are noted both ahead of and following the front north of 29N between 50W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds follow the front elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 11 ft following the front primarily in N to NE swell north of 29N, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 20N and west of 50W. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front reaches from 31N32W to 25N45W. Gentle to moderate winds persist east of 50W, north of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft dominate the tropical Atlantic south of 20N. Of note, an area of Saharan dust is evident this morning north of 05N and east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly eastward and dissipate through mid week. The fresh to strong winds north of 29N associated with the front will pull north of our waters by this evening. In the front's wake, large to very large NW to N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding eastward north of 29N through Wed night. 8 ft seas will progress equatorward reaching 20N by Thu before diminishing on Fri. Winds will become quiescent over forecast waters from Wed through the end of the forecast period, as a high pressure ridge settles in along 27N.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen