Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in Colombia will support strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean tonight and Sun morning. A recent partial scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 31 kt off NW Colombia. Winds will drop below gale on Sun, but fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist through at least the upcoming week.

Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 18W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N and east of 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 08N and between 40W and 51W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted within 120 nm on both sides of the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 06N42W and then from 05N45W and to 03N51W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the convection.

Gulf Of America

A few showers are noted in the western Bay of Campeche and off western Florida, while generally dry conditions are present in the rest of the Gulf. A 1020 mb high pressure system centered over the eastern Gulf waters forces fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 24N and between 88W and 94W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the NW Gulf through Mon night. A weak cold front will sink southward into the NE Gulf Mon night into Tue and gradually dissipate. Elsewhere, ridging will support only gentle to moderate winds for the next several days.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding upcoming gale conditions for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the expected gale conditions, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and adjacent areas is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over much of the central Caribbean, and westward from there to the Gulf of Honduras. Rough to locally very rough seas are found in the south-central Caribbean and moderate to locally rough seas in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the Windward Passage, along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight before diminishing Sun. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades are expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage tonight. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level low centered southwest of Bermuda is producing a few showers north of 25N and between 58W and 67W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive high pressure system centered near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found south of 20N and between 40W and 52W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted within 120 nm of the coast of Africa, north of 18N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon night, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate by Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form in its wake. Gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter, while it moves slowly westward over our NW waters north of 29N.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado