Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 42W and 47W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 53W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 62W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W and extends SW to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 10W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula. Another surface trough is over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail across most of the Gulf, except 2-3 ft over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend. This feature will enhance the pressure gradient, resulting in fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and west- central Gulf. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas are also expected across the same area into Sun.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure around TD Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over central and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas will prevail from the south-central to northwestern basin into early week. During the weekend, the high over the western Atlantic is expected to strengthen further, and cause fresh E trades to expand northward into the north-central basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N59W across the northern waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the front from 31N56W to 23N68W, with a weak 1017 mb surface low along the trough near 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of the low along the trough. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 39N28W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 23W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, The low will dissipate as it moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. The frontal boundary will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The Atlantic ridge will then build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through Sun night.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL