Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and then runs southwestward to 07N16W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 07N16W across 03N30W to northeast of the Amazon Delta at 03. 5N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 23W and 50W.

Convergent NE winds just north of the tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough are causing scattered showers across the Caribbean waters near Panama.

Gulf Of America

As of 1800 UTC, a cold front extends across the Yucatan Channel and across the Yucatan Peninsula, ending inland near the SE Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are occurring along and near the front. Gale-force winds behind the front have diminished, but very rough seas of 12-15 ft prevail S of 20N and W of 94W. Earlier scatterometer data indicated strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas occurring S of 22N, while moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across much of the remaining Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front extends across the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan peninsula. Strong to near gale NW winds are occurring over the SW Gulf, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the remainder of the Gulf. The front will weaken and stall shortly with conditions improving across the Gulf tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front will move the Gulf Wed night, followed by increasing winds and building seas, with the front shifting quickly southeast of the basin Thu. Looking ahead, conditions should improve Thu night into the weekend as high pressure shifts across the N Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A strong and broad surface ridge northeast of the Leeward Islands continues to support a robust trade-wind regime for much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen in the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A weakening cold front will move slowly southward across the Yucatan Channel today and become stationary across W Cuba and the N Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning as it gradually dissipates. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front stretches southwestward from just southeast of Bermuda across 31N64W and across the northern Bahamas to the north coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are present along and near the front. Farther east, a couple of surface trough are triggering patchy showers from 20N to 28N between 60W and 72W. In the tropical Atlantic, an upper-level low near 18N57W and associated diffluent upper level flow is generating scattered showers from 10N to 23N between 35W and 55W. Another cold front runs southwestward from northwest of Madeira across 31N20W to 28N38W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed across the western Canary Islands from 31N12W to 28N19W, with scattered showers occurring along and near the trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft follow the first cold front. For the rest of the western and tropical Atlantic north of 10N between 55W and the cold front/central and southeast Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to SE with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. To the east, north of 25N between 35W and 55W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate. For areas from 06N to 24N between 20W and 50W, fresh to strong trades and 6-8 ft seas prevail. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas then to central Cuba will drift southeastward today, become stationary tonight, then dissipate on Tue. High pressure will build eastward off of the SE coast of the United States behind the front. A strong pre-frontal trough will emerge off the coast of NE Florida Wed morning and quickly move eastward, accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the NW waters Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N58W to 25N70W Sat morning. Gale conditions are possible both behind and ahead of the front to the north of 30N Thu night through Fri morning.

Posted 24 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams