Special Features

Agadir Gale Warning: A 1036 mb high was analyzed near 39N23W at 1200 UTC today. The enhanced pressure gradient between this high and low pressure over the Mediterranean supports fresh to strong NE winds offshore Morocco, currently N of 20N between the W coast of Africa and 35W. Rough seas are seen in this area as well. Winds are expected to increase to gale-force speeds with severe gusts Wednesday afternoon, and Meteo-France has accordingly issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 07/18 UTC to 08/09 UTC.

For more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at: wwmiws. wmo. int/index. php/metareas/display/2.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 03. 5N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 18W, as well as from 04N to 08N between 30W and 42W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends over the northeastern Gulf from 29N85W to 25N87W. No convection is occurring near this trough. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are occurring over the western Gulf, with mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected west of 95W through Wed. Widespread moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the central and western Gulf by Wed night, with strong winds and rough seas possible offshore of Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thu, as a storm system forms over the central U. S. A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Fri night into Sat, with widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevailing in the wake of the front as it sweeps across the basin this weekend. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sat.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from the Anegada Passage to 16N69W. A 1012 mb low is centered near 17. 5N80W, and a surface trough extends northeastward from the low to offshore NW Jamaica, as well as to the southeast to 13N78W. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front to the coast of Hispaniola. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh trades also persist offshore NW Colombia and in the NW Caribbean, along with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and locally rough seas will develop over the south-central Caribbean by this evening as the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low tightens. Winds may pulse to near- gale force offshore of Colombia each night starting on Wed. The tightening pressure gradient will also support pulsing of moderate to fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola through late week. High pressure will further build north of the area by late week, supporting widespread fresh trade winds over much of the central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning offshore Agadir.

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to a 1013 mb low near 23N60W. A cold front then extends from this low through the Anegada Passage. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the cold front, north of 22N between 43W and 57W. A shear line is analyzed from 29N57W to 22N70W to 24N77W. Gentle to moderate NE winds are between the front and shear line, while NE winds quickly increase to fresh to strong speeds N of the shear line. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are seen roughly 200 nm N and W of the shear line. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds are ahead of the front.

Surface ridging prevails across much of the remaining basin. Outside of the region mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas are seen from 05N to 13N between 25W and 50W. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure building across the area and a cold front in the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over much of the waters east of 70W. Rough seas N of 25N and east of 65W will subside through Wed morning. Elsewhere, locally fresh S to SW winds are expected well offshore of Florida into Wed as a surface trough develops to the north. High pressure will further build across the area by late week.

Posted 32 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams