Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf near midnight tonight, and the northeastern Gulf early Saturday morning, then sweep across the rest of the Gulf through Sunday night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds behind the front will peak at near-gale to gale-force across the west-central and central Gulf late Saturday night through Sunday morning, and off Veracruz, Mexico on Sunday. Seas under the strongest winds will reach 13 to 15 ft. Conditions should gradually improve from north to south starting Sunday afternoon.

Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshore. php for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 06N17W. An ITCZ curves westward from 06N17W through 03N30W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N between 12W and 42W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is flaring up near both features from 01N to 09N between 10W and 46W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and Costa Rica.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Convergent southerly winds near a cold front across southern Texas are causing scattered showers along the Texas coastline. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf with gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas, except moderate to fresh SSE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas near Veracruz, Mexico.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support moderate and weaker winds across most of the Gulf through tonight. The aforementioned cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late tonight, then steadily progress southeastward on Sat with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. It will reach from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun morning, and move southeast of the Gulf by Sun night. Near gale to gale-force NW to N winds are anticipated behind the front. Winds should steadily diminish from north to south late Sun afternoon through Mon. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the southeastern United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.

Caribbean Sea

The southeastern end of a weakening stationary front along with a surface trough are generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across waters from near Jamaica to eastern Cuba, including the Windward Passage. A robust trade-wind regime continues for the central and eastern basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate on Saturday. Fresh to strong trades will pulse offshore of northwestern Colombia and the central basin tonight and the next few nights, reaching near-gale force at night starting Sat night and into early next week. Looking ahead, a new cold front will arrive in the northwestern basin Sun night, and as high pressure builds in behind it, fresh to strong NE winds should prevail through mid- week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N58W to 27N65W, then continues as a stationary front through the southeast Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba. Widely scattered showers are occurring up to 150 nm along either side of this boundary. An upper-level low near 21N41W is producing scattered moderate convection from 19N to 21N between 39W and 43W. Another cold front curves northwestward from near the Canary Islands to near 30N35W. Scattered showers are noted up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas large NW swell are found near and up to 150 nm northwest of the aforementioned cold/stationary front. Otherwise, gentle with locally moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells exist north of 20N and west of 59W. Farther east, moderate to fresh with locally strong E winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are evident. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary at the western Atlantic should completely stall tonight and dissipate on Sat. Afterward, a building Bermuda-Azores High will enhance the trades up to fresh to strong east of 65W for the next few days. Another cold front will emerge from the Southeast United States coast on Sun accompanied by fresh to strong winds, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N. Winds with the front will diminish on Mon. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the southeast United States on Tue and Wed will boost NE winds to between fresh and strong over and north of the Bahamas.

Chan Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster