Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 01N32W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the boundaries mainly W of 20W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A stationary front extends from near Naples, FL to 22N94W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail in the vicinity of the front. To the NW, a 1017 mb low is analyzed near 27N97W, with trough extending from the low to 21N96W. Fresh winds prevail E of the trough, and moderate winds are W of the trough. Moderate to rough seas prevail across the basin, with highest values across the eastern half.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail N of the front through Tue. Then on Tue, the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume moving southward and move across Cuba and the Yucatan Channel, before stalling along about 21N Wed and dissipating early Thu. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

The front across the southern Gulf and western Atlantic is displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across the basin this afternoon. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong NE winds will develop Tue night and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late-season cold front moving slowly across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate across eastern Cuba early Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low near 31N67W to 27N75W, then becomes stationary to 26N80W. Scattered showers are active along the front. Fresh to strong NE winds with rough seas are evident north of the front. Farther east, a scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along a trough ahead of the front extending from 31N68W to 23N73W. A broad ridge dominates the remainder of the discussion area, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure over the north-central Atlantic west of the Azores near 37N42W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving southeastward, reaching from 31N60W to the NW coast of Cuba by Tue afternoon, and then begin to stall and weaken from 31N55W to 25N60W to eastern Cuba along 21N Wed morning. Winds will diminish Wed as the front stalls and dissipates along 21N by early Thu. Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu through Sat, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE swell will linger near the weakening front Tue night through Thu morning, including waters near the Windward Passage.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster ERA