Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia as a tight pressure gradient persists between ridging in the central Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Rough to occasionally very rough seas of are anticipated with these winds. Gale force winds are expected tonight and Sun night while gale conditions are possible at night Mon through Thu. Seas are forecast to build to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds tonight into early Sun morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Liberia/Sierra Leone border at 07N12W and continues SW to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from the Equator to 01N between 14W and 16W, and from 00N to 03N between 30W and 34W. Similar convective activity is noted near 00N41W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. Low level clouds, with patches of light rain, are baking up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern Mexico, mainly S of Tampico. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted per scatterometer data over the western Bay of Campeche in the wake of the front. Seas are 8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, with an area of moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds S of 24N and W of the front to about 95W. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft across the coastal waters. High pressure of 1024 mb located over the NW Gulf follows the front.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate by Sun. Fresh to strong winds in the SW Gulf will diminish to moderate speeds by tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf through the middle of next week.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

The Atlantic ridge extends SW and reaches the Bahamas and the northern Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong NE to E winds in the central and SW parts of the Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of the central Caribbean just south of Haiti and Jamaica. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh trades will prevail across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Pulsing strong winds are expected in the central Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, residual E swell merged with N swell will support locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through the middle of next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N73W to central Florida. A band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is associated with the front. Elsewhere, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic continue to be dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure centered just W of the Azores. Its associated ridge reaches the Bahamas. Fresh to strong trades are noted around the souther periphery of the ridge, covering the waters south of 25N and E of 60W. Seas are mainly 8 to 12 ft in these waters. West of 60W, trades are moderate or weaker with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front in the western Atlantic will progress eastward over the northern waters before stalling and dissipating Sun. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will prevail south of 22N through the middle of next week. North of 22N, gentle winds and moderate seas are expected through the middle of next week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr