Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 03N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N27W to 05N43W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and east of 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A cold front extends from Venice, Florida to 25N87W, where it becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are found behind the front, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail ahead of the front. No significant showers or thunderstorms are active across the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slow down this morning, while the stationary front lifts northward as another low pressure system forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop this afternoon in W Gulf and spread eastward tonight into Thu. Then, another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and gradually dissipate. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf late Sun into Mon, bringing strong N winds over much of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

Divergence aloft supports a few showers over the Lesser Antilles and nearby waters. Strong showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Costa Rica. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the south-central and SW Caribeban, while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A cold front extends from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted within 180 nm east of the front, with fresh NW winds and 5 to 9 ft following the front. Another surface trough extends along 68W south of 28N to Puerto Rico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted east of the trough near 23N60W. A ridge axis is noted between the front and this trough, from Bermuda to central Cuba. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 11 ft seas cover the remainder of the North Atlantic south of 31N and east of the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will extend from near Bermuda to South Florida later this morning, and from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently located just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will continue to move westward passing N of Hispaniola today and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough are gradually diminishing. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the waters off NE Florida Fri resulting in fresh to locally strong winds N of 29N and west of 75W by Fri afternoon. These winds and locally rough seas will then shift eastward into the weekend.

Posted 17 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado