Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W along the coast of Guinea and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 07N57W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N-13N and east of 25W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low over the Florida panhandle at 31N84W to just north of Veracruz near 20N97W. A prefrontal trough extends from 26N89W to 30N83W. Scattered showers are present within 30 NM of the front and prefrontal trough. Winds behind the front are N fresh to strong with the remainder of the Gulf having moderate or weaker winds. Seas behind the front are 5-7 ft, while the remainder of the Gulf has 2-5 ft waves.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds and moderate to locally rough seas are forecast to move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by late Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

The trades have diminished across the basin today as a surface trough progresses westward just north of the islands, disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge. Winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N west of 78W due to the eastern extent of the Northeast Pacific's monsoon trough.

For the forecast, diminished winds across the basin will continue on Wed as a surface trough progresses westward just N of the islands, disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge. However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the high pressure builds in north of the area. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A surface trough extends from 19N65W to 26N62W with scattered moderate convection occurring from 21N-27N between 55W-62W. Winds east of the trough axis are SE fresh to strong with seas 8-10 ft. Extending farther east into the Atlantic, a moderate to strong pressure gradient between a 1034 mb Azores High near 27N30W and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong trades from 10N-29N east of 55W. Seas are 8-10 ft. A complex area of low pressure over the SE United States is help to force fresh to strong SSW winds north of 28N west of 77W with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, winds are moderate and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of 74W today as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf of America to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach the waters off the northeast Florida coast late today, extending from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently located near 64W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just N of Puerto Rico today, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over the next couple of days.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea