Special Features

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will move through Central Atlantic waters early this week, with strong to near gale- force northerly winds behind it. Significant NW swell, with period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales N of the region will accompany these winds and combine with wind- waves to induce very rough seas SE of Bermuda starting Mon night, spreading E across waters N of 20N through Wed. Widespread seas of 12 to 16 ft can be expected from 40W to 70W during this period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough is now confined entirely inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 05N24W to 06N34W to 05N41W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends from just offshore Tampico, Mexico, to just offshore Campeche, Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection associated with this trough is impacting waters S of 23N and W of 94W. Recent scatterometer data shows widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds over much of the basin, with the NW Gulf having gentle SE winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except less than 3 ft where the gentle winds prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the eastern United States will tighten the pressure gradient across the Florida Straits, bringing an increase in winds. Fresh winds will develop over those waters tonight, and will strengthen Monday into late Tue. Rough seas will develop with the strong winds.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the high pressure N of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is allowing for mostly moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, evidenced by late evening scatterometer passes. One ASCAT pass depicted strong to near-gale force winds within 90 nm of the Colombia coast, where rough seas are likely ongoing. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 7 ft. No significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale-force speeds at night. Rough seas are expected with these winds. High pressure will move off the coast of the United States in the wake of a cold front over the SW N Atlantic waters early this week. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters in the lee of Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds over these waters will strengthen by Mon evening, and continue through Thu night. Otherwise, mixed long period swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon evening. New long-period northerly swell will affect the tropical Atlantic waters Wed and Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on significant swell arriving starting Mon night that will bring very rough seas to part of the central Atlantic into mid-week.

A weak stationary front extends from SE of Bermuda to just E of the NW Bahamas. Convection associated with this boundary has generally dissipated this evening. To the east, a surface trough is noted from 31N50W to 24N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm E of this boundary, N of 29N. In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front stretches along 22N from Morocco to 24W.

Latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds offshore Florida, in the vicinity of the Bahamas, and for waters N of the Antilles to about 22N. For remaining waters W of 50W, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas in these waters are 4 to 7 ft. For waters N of 20N and E of 50W, altimeter data confirms rough seas prevail, with widespread 8 to 11 ft seas, along with mainly fresh NE winds. For the tropical waters between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move into the northern waters early on Mon and will rapidly progress eastward through midweek. Widespread strong to locally near-gale force NE winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible east of 75W Tue through midweek. A second cold front may enter the northern waters midweek with strong winds and building seas in the wake of the front E of 70W.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik