Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf region and extends from near Naples, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche where it terminates as stationary. Strong gale force NW to N winds of 45 kt with seas to 21 ft are occurring over the SW Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong to near gale force northerly winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front elsewhere. This system will reach the Straits of Florida, the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon morning, then will weaken and stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 13N between 25W and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING.

As previously mentioned, strong cold front extends from SW Florida to 24N87W to 18N94W. Outside of the Gale Warning currently in effect, fresh to strong N-NE winds are behind the front across much of the basin, with moderate to rough seas. Scattered showers are along the front. Moderate NE winds and slight to moderate seas are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, outside of strong cold front, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of the basin Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

A strong and broad ridge north of the Caribbean continues to support strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured peak winds of 28 kt off Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas prevail. No significant convection is noted in the Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. Then, fresh to strong winds will persist through Mon night. Afterwards, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through at least the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A weakening stationary front is forecast to extend across western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning while gradually dissipating. Another cold front may move into the NW part of the basin Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

The aforementioned cold front extends from 31N75W to Jupiter, Florida. A few shallow showers are evident near this boundary. The tight pressure gradient between the cold front and strong ridge over the United States forces fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the frontal boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a weak pressure gradient that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

A surface trough is analyzed at 54W and north of 20N. The interaction of this feature and divergence aloft sustains scattered showers east of the boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted between 40W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-9 ft are found south of 25N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure N of the area will continue to move eastward ahead of a cold front forecast that has already moved off the NE Florida coast, extending from 31N74W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates on Tue. Then, high pressure will follow the front. Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night. At that time, gale conditions and building seas are possible in the wake of the front N of 29N.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado