Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1033 mb high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a now shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW Caribbean in the wake of the shearline. This will result in the continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely.

Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 07N13W and continues southwestward to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 01. 5S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 01N to 07W, and east of 15W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A broad ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds east of 90W according latest satellite derived winds. Moderate or lighter winds prevail west of 90W. Slight to moderate seas prevail across much of the basin.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States combined with a dissipating frontal boundary over the NW Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through Wed. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale Warning offshore Colombia.

A shearline extends from Camaguey, Cuba to the Bay Islands and northern Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong northerly winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are moderate to rough. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds are forecast to pulse each night and early morning hours over the waters offshore Colombia through Thu morning. A shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will dissipate today. Strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will reinforce the northerly winds over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras today. These marine conditions will improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall through mid-week. An area of moisture, currently located over the central Atlantic, will reach the Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to north of the central Bahamas where it transition to a stationary front and then to Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted behind the front, except for strong winds north of the central Bahamas. The rest of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge near the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to strong easterly winds east of 60W and south of 28N. Seas in these waters are rough. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft is sustaining a few showers east of the Lesser Antilles, especially south of 20N and between 30W and 58W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W through Thu. The aforementioned front will lift N while dissipating by midweek. High pressure building over the SE of the United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh to strong speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed.

Posted 3 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster KRV