Tropical Waves

The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been repositioned to 28W, from 01S to 09N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section.

A tropical wave has its axis near 59. 5W S of 14N to near Barbados and across portions of Guyana, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. The wave is supporting moderate convection over portions of eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana, with any offshore nearby convection is described below in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02S31W to off the coast of Brazil at 00N48W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 07N between roughly 19W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front extends from 1015 mb low pressure along the S-central coast of Louisiana to across the NW Gulf to 1016 mb low pressure offshore Texas at 27. 5N95W to near the border with Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from the Florida Panhandle offshore to near 26N93W. These features support scattered moderate convection N of 24N within about 240 nm ahead of the front. Mainly moderate N-NE winds and 2-4 ft seas are found W of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly 1-3 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin, except locally to 4 ft W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to some earlier winds. A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche from 23N91. 5W to 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 20N to 23N to the W of 95W.

For the forecast, a weak cold front currently over the NW Gulf will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche tomorrow morning, then stall and dissipate by Wed. Winds are generally moderate or weaker on either wide of the front, though showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight along the front. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri.

Caribbean Sea

Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea, except for some convection near and over Panama due to the extension of the Pacific monsoon trough along about 10N. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the remainder of forecast waters. Large E swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of America result in isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 50W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere, except for rough seas N of 27N between 17W and 30W in northerly swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will reach the waters off of NE Florida early tomorrow morning, extend along 30N and becoming stationary Wed morning, then lifting north of our waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh or weaker on either wide of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur along the front. Additionally, trades just north of Hispaniola will pulse fresh to strong tonight and Tue night. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the Atlantic from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning. S winds ahead of the front north of 28N will be fresh to strong.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky