Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N30W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N E of 17W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge associated with a 1020 high pressure centered offshore Fort Myers, Florida, dominating Gulf weather. Gentle anticyclonic flow thus encompasses most of the basin, but some moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring just offshore the lower Texas coast as well as off NE Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less, except locally 3 to 5 ft where the fresh winds are present.

For the forecast, fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as the pressure gradient increases between ridging over the eastern basin and a developing storm system in the central United States. Strong winds will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico tonight through Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much of the Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Fri night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it moves over the basin into early next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat into Sun late night.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low is producing fresh to strong trade winds with 6 to 8 ft seas over the south- central Caribbean. Locally fresh N winds are occurring south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will occur near and to the west of these winds. Strong winds are also expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela starting on Thu afternoon. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the central Caribbean tonight, including through the Windward Passage, with fresh winds expanding over much of the basin through late week as the pressure gradient increases between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola nightly starting on Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front has stalled from 31N44W to a 1014 mb low near 21N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of this front, N of 25N between 42W and 48W. Fresh to strong S winds are present in the vicinity of this convection. Ridging associated with high pressure centered W of the Florida Peninsula is leading to mainly gentle winds to the W of the stationary front. To the east, strong high pressure of 1037 mb located between the Azores and the Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Strong NE winds are evident N of 15N E of 20W, and from 21N to 30N between 20W and 30W. Seas are 9 to 12 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are observed over the tropical Atlantic E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in long period NE swell, are seen E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds and moderate seas occurring west of 67W and north of 29N will slowly diminish tonight as a surface trough moves eastward. Gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are then expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic on Thu as a weak pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off the coast of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated move off the coast of the southeastern U. S. on Sun, leading to fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas to 9 ft in the wake of the front.

Posted 12 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik