Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf by Sun night. As the front moves across the basin through early next week, gale- force NW winds will develop in the wake of the front, mainly W of 90W. Peak sustained winds of 35 to 45 kt, with gusts to storm- force and very rough seas of up to 15 ft, can be expected offshore of Veracruz. These conditions will dissipate by late Mon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 150 nm on either side of these features.

Gulf Of America

Weak ridging extends across the northern Gulf. Moderate S winds and 3-4 seas are noted over the far western Gulf, with gentle breezes and 1-2 ft seas elsewhere. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue to be active just north of the Yucatan Channel, along a remnant boundary that persists over the area. Generally fair weather is noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sun night, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Tampico and Veracruz may attain gusts to storm-force. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting pulsing fresh to strong trades off Colombia with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh E trade winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere E of 80W, while gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas are noted W of 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure will build westward across the west and central Atlantic on Sun, with the resulting pressure gradient leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the waters E of the Lesser Antilles on Sun to the eastern and central Caribbean, including the passages on Mon. The pressure gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough extending from Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Much of the remaining Atlantic is under the influence of ridging from the 1035 mb Azores high. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-10 ft prevail across much of the waters east of 60W. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail west of 60W and south of 25N. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build toward the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. The front will move off the U. S. southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow the front through Tue. To the south, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during midweek.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen