Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N35W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 05N between 15W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge prevails over the Gulf waters. A scatterometer pass show mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern half of the basin where altimeter, buoys and ship data are showing 3 to 6 ft seas. Winds and seas of similar magnitude are ongoing also over the Gulf waters W of 90W.

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Sat morning, then weaken Sat afternoon and night as a cold front approaches. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with occasional strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the northwestern Gulf and through the Florida Straits through Sat. A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Sun and move southeastward through early next week, reaching from near Fort Myers, FL to 23N94W to the central Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Expected strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area extending into the northern basin, and the Colombian low, is supporting fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Winward Passage as indicated by scatterometer data. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh winds pulsing to strong with rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the south sides of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as the Windward Passage through Fri night, before winds and seas diminish over the weekend. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, and yield fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A series of six centers of high pressure N of the area extend a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. A surface trough is over the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands and is generating scattered to isolated showers over the central subtropical waters between 41W and 58W. Scatterometer data show that the pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the offshores NW of the trough, the southern Bahamas offshores as well as the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also between the trough and the Bahamas, or between 55W and 70W where seas are rough to 11 ft. Fresh E winds are across the Great Bahama Bank while moderate winds are elsewhere W of 50W. Over the far E Atlantic, another surface trough extends from 26N22W to 21N28W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 37W, including the Canary Islands. Seas over this region are 7-8 ft. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extending from the central Atlantic west-southwestward into the SE U. S. will drift slowly SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas, through this weekend. By late Sun, the high will have weakened and shifted to NE of Bermuda, while an inverted surface trough forms from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U. S. early Mon and move slowly southeastward, reaching from 31N72W to central Florida by Tue morning.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos