Tropical Waves

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, south of 16N, and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A 1028 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends westward to the Gulf waters supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 25N and between 88W and 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry conditions are found across the basin, except for a few showers in the nearshore waters of western Florida, Veracruz and Tamaulipas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to strong Wed night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Beginning Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the islands dominates the Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the highest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Large E to SE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight. Looking ahead, there will be a resumption of the fresh to strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras starting Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

The interaction between an upper level low near 29N75W and a surface trough in the area results in scattered showers between 70W and 78W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge near Bermuda. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of 27N and west of 55W.

Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N38W and continues southwestward to 27N59W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are present north of 28N and between 27W and 45W. An expansive ridge dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 24N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a deep layer trough E of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms through Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola afternoons and evenings into the weekend. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through the weekend.

Posted 6 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado