Special Features

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A strong high pressure of 1035 mb located SW of the Azores near 33N36W is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 14 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 45W. This swell event will persist through early next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N16W, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 03S36W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 360 nm on either side of the boundaries.

Gulf Of America

A 1014 mb surface low is analyzed near 25N86W, with stationary front extending from the low to 27N82W. A band of showers is along the front. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 30N89W. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the wake of the front over the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are in general 1 to 3 ft, highest behind the front.

For the forecast, the front will transition to a weakening cold front tonight and slowly move southeastward, exiting the basin tonight. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build west- southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue through Thu.

Caribbean Sea

Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean and the north-central part of the basin with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the NW Caribbean. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will continue to move across the basin producing scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late next week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong trades expected elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin well into next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage starting late Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from 31N75W to central Florida. A band of showers with embedded strong thunderstorms is ahead of the front between 70W-76W. A strong high pressure of 1035 mb situated SW of the Azores near 33N36W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This system is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic, particularly E of 50W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida by late tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the SE waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 14 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. Conditions will begin to slowly abate starting Thu.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA