Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 07N between 35W and 43W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from 15N southward across western Venezuela and central-eastern Colombia. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the Venezuela-Colombia border.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 03N36W, then resumes from 01N43W to near the Amazon River Delta. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 170 nm north of both ITCZ segments.

Convergent surface winds north of the East Pacific monsoon trough are triggering numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwest Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A deep mid to upper-level trough reaches southward from eastern Texas across the western Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula, providing strong divergent flow over the central and part of the eastern Gulf. Along with abundant moisture being advected by surface southeasterly winds, scattered to numerous showers with isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring over the central and part of the eastern Gulf. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas are likely near these thunderstorms.

Otherwise weak ridging extending from the north-central Atlantic through Florida is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas across the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will sustain gentle to moderate SE to S winds through the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh to strong winds off the northern Yucatan through Thu night. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf should persist through at least Wed night. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

The southeastern end of a pronounced mid to upper-level trough is enhancing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the northwestern basin. Convergent trades are producing similar weather between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and across the northeastern basin, including waters near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Strong to near- gale E winds with seas of 9 to 11 ft are present at the south- central basin, while fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are at the north- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba, south of the Windward Passage and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean with rough seas through Thu night. These winds are expected to pulse to near- gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours into Thu. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just north of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. By Fri, most of the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south-central basin in which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N34W to 24N45W, then continues west-northwestard as a stationary front to 25N53W to 29N64W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 80 nm north of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the top for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north of the cold/stationary front. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found from 20N to the cold/stationary front between 35W and 60W. To the west, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north of 25N between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Fresh to strong E to SE winds along with 6 to 9 ft seas dominate from 20N to 25N and west of 60W, including the Great Bahama Bank. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated across waters south of 25N and west of 60W through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as the Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. As the high weakens Wed night, winds and seas will diminish from east to west. A weakening stationary front from 25N53W to 29N64W will linger through this morning before dissipating later this afternoon. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas north of it will gradually diminish through this afternoon.

Chan Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster