Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N-08N between 25W-32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found along the wave axis from 06N-10N between 59W-61W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 69W, south of 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 05N40W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is present at this time.

Gulf Of America

1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N86W. A trough is over the Bay of Campeche in the far southwest Gulf along 92W south of 22N. Moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the western Gulf with gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Various observations over southern Mexico including Veracruz are showing minor limitations to visibility due to haze.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region while a weak cold front is forecast to reach the NE Gulf late tonight into Tue with little impact in winds and seas. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Fri night due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few thunderstorms are active across Trinidad associated with a tropical wave moving into the Windward Islands. No significant convection is evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands near 24N65W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain active within 180 nm southeast of an associated surface trough extending from 26N62W to 21N67W. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by the subtropical ridge north of 20N, interrupted only by a surface trough along roughly 45W from 20N to 25N. This pattern is supporting moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas north of 20N, east of 35W. It is also supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics east of 35W with 5-7 ft seas, except near 8 ft southeast of Barbados. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the forecast area through today. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. A weak cold front will push off of the SE United States coast today and extend from 31N72W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system in the next day or two. Gradual development is possible while the system drifts southward and then westward before environmental conditions become less conducive later this week.

Posted 24 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen