Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 05N between 12W and 20W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to Leeville, Louisiana. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas to 3 ft follow the front over the Florida Big Bend area. Fresh NE winds and seas to 5 ft are noted off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle breezes and 2-4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate later today, while weak high pressure will move over the northeast Gulf tonight through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning and reach from south Florida to northeast Mexico by Sun morning, and southeast of the basin Sun night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the northwest Caribbean between Grand Cayman Island and Swan Island, southeast of an upper trough over the Gulf of America. An associated surface trough extended along the coast of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds north of this trough. The same pass showed fresh winds south of Cuba and Hispaniola. Although not captured by the pass, it is likely fresh to strong NE winds are active off Colombia at this time. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in the northwest Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western Atlantic through Fri night, maintaining fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas offshore of Colombia tonight and persist, mainly at night. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas across northern Caribbean to include the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A stationary front extends from 31N63W to Vero Beach, Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds north of the front. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed combined seas of 8-13 ft this past evening, although this may have subsided in the past several hours to 7-11 ft. The remainder of the area west of 55W is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1011 mb low is nearly stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate trades and moderate to occasionally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front extends from 31N63W to Vero Beach, Florida. Fresh winds and rough seas north of front will subside through tonight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida early Sat, and reach from 31N62W to Miami by Sun morning. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will dominate all waters north of the front through Sun night. Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen