Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 06N20W. Farther south, the ITCZ extends from 00N15W across 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The southwestern portion of a cold front is analyzed from 25N81W to 22N87W. Fresh N to NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are noted at the Bay of Campeche and the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will stall and significantly weaken over the southeastern Gulf today, dissipating by tonight. Marine conditions will improve significantly through the weekend as weak high pressure settles just N of the basin. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun night and reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night. Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon.

Caribbean Sea

A weaker pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low has allowed trades to subside a bit across the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft still found off northeastern Colombia. Mostly gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central basin through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift eastward through tonight, leading to fresh to strong winds becoming confined to the south-central Caribbean S of 13N during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area-wide. High pressure will build across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front continues to move E across the W Atlantic, analyzed from 31N74W to 26N80W. Near-gale NW winds in its wake, mainly N of 28N and W of 73W. Rough seas will prevail with these winds. To the E, a surface trough extends along 60W, triggering scattered showers from 22N to 30N between 55W and 60W. Farther south, another surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow is bringing scattered showers from 10N to 16N between 45W and 50W. Gentle winds and moderate seas dominate north of 20N between 60W and the cold front/Bahamas. To the east, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and moderate to rough seas in large NE swell exist north of 18N between 35W and 60W. For the tropical Atlantic from 00N to 20N/25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will rapidly weaken and begin to stall as it reaches from near 31N70W to extreme South Florida this morning, then dissipate by this evening. Central Atlantic high pressure will build west- southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. This front will move off the U. S. southeastern coast late Mon, then slow down and stall from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting late Sun afternoon or early evening ahead of the front. These conditions will shift eastward to the north-central waters by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow the front. To the S, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week.

Posted about 7 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA