Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force tonight through early Sat morning, and again Sat night into Sun morning. Latest scatterometer satellite data is already depicting trade winds of near gale-force over these waters. These winds are forecast to produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Latest altimeter satellite data is already indicating seas peaking there to about 13 ft. In addition, buoy 42058 at the location of 15N75W is currently reporting seas of 13 ft. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 01N31W to 10N26W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Increased scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 08N between the wave and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 05N53W to 12N50W and to 18N44W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 05N to 13N between the wave and 55W, and also east of the wave to near 49W from 06N to 10N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W south of 18N to the eastern Pacific near 06N80W moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to be enhancing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over northern Panama and its adjacent waters.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and extends southwest to 10N22W and to 06N27. 5W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 03N40W and to 03N46W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on convection.

Gulf Of America

A rather weak and broad Atlantic high pressure ridge extends westward across central Florida, and west-northwestward to the north-central Gulf. The associated gradient is generally providing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds throughout the basin, except for fresh east winds over the central portions of the basin and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft east of 91W and 3 to 5 ft west of 91W.

Isolated showers are over some areas of the Bay of Campeche and eastern Gulf while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving to the northwest are over the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will persist over the Gulf region through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds across the NW Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about upcoming gale conditions offshore of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics and in northern South America is bringing fresh to near gale-force trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are present over the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail throughout the basin.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge north of the islands combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and again Sat. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward Passage late Sat afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A trough is analyzed from near 31N58W to 26N60W and to near 19N59W. An upper-level low dropping southward is near 29N61. 5W as seen in water vapor imagery. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident north of 24. 5N between 56W and 62W. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a rather broad high pressure ridge that is anchored by a 1031 mb high analyzed north of the area near 35N49W and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas over most of the tropical Atlantic as captured in the latest scatterometer and altimeter satellite data passes. In the far eastern Atlantic, a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in West Africa is bringing fresh to strong winds to the waters offshore the coast of Africa from 18N to 22. 5N between the coast and about 22W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the broad high pressure ridge will remain across the area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north to south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge resulting in diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slip southward over the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

Posted 36 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre