Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N44W to 24N67W, then continues as a remnant frontal trough to the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE winds, locally near gale force in convection, were observed along and north of the frontal boundary per a pair of scatterometer passes between 0000-0100 UTC. A surface low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary near 30N60W later this morning. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center today through early Fri as the low moves NE and deepens, before gradually exiting the forecast area Fri night. Peak seas under the strongest winds are anticipated to be at 13 to 18 ft by late Thu afternoon and evening and will persist through Fri evening before subsiding as well as moving north of the area.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information this event.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near 07N11W and then runs west-southwestward to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 07N30W to 01N48W. Convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ appears to also be influenced by an upper level low near 14N37W, with a large area of scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of 35W between the Equator and 18N.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered showers across the Caribbean waters near Nicaragua and Panama.

Gulf Of America

Derived satellite imagery shows patches of fog forming over portions of the northern Gulf waters generally within 60 NM of the coast. Mariners should be aware of the potential for reductions in visibility. A surface trough is analyzed in the far W Gulf, with another surface trough analyzed from the Yucatan Channel into the NW Gulf near 27N91W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near both of these trough axes. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong E winds and moderate seas across much of the Gulf east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail W of 90W.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the W Atlantic across the SE U. S. will dominate the Gulf region through Thu, and shift eastward by Thu night. Winds will veer to the S and SW on Thu ahead of the next cold front, which is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Thu evening. The front will then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Brownsville, Texas by Fri morning, from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. High pressure will move into the NE Gulf Sat night and Sun.

Caribbean Sea

The southern end of a surface trough is causing scattered showers at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, a trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the central and eastern Caribbean as well as off the south coast of Cuba, with areas offshore NW Colombia seeing fresh to strong NE winds. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu as high pressure shifts eastward across the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Fri. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin Thu into the weekend to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central and southwest Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western and central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N44W to 24N67W, then continues as a remnant frontal trough to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is evident N of 25N between 53W and 63W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1029 mb high extends a ridge across much of the basin. Accordingly, scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong trades and 7-11 ft seas across much of the Atlantic. The exceptions are N of 25N to the aforementioned frontal boundaries between 22W and 52W, where high pressure maintains gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are also observed south of the frontal remnant trough in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 29N55W to developing low pressure near 28N60. 5W then into the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas prevail north and northwest of the front. Low pressure will become better organized and deepen along the front tonight through Thu as it moves E-NE. Strong gale force winds and very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center Thu through early Fri, before it weakens and gradually exits the forecast area Fri night. The next cold front will move into the NW waters Fri afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the central Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front may move into the NW waters Sun night.

$$ Adams Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster