Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm on either side of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 74W south of 15N to inland South America, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave portion that remains over South America.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 17N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Divergent flow aloft attributed to a deep upper-level trough, combined with abundant tropical moisture pulled northward from the Caribbean, results in numerous showers and thunderstorms south of 28N and E of 91W. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail across the basin, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sustain moderate to fresh SE to S winds through the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan through Thu night. The upper-level trough across the central Gulf should continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf through Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

The interaction between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure to its south related to low pressure over northern S America has created a tight pressure gradient over the central part of the basin. This is inducing strong to near- gale trade winds along with rough seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Long-period E swell is creating rough seas in the Atlantic water passages of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

The southeastern periphery of a well pronounced upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel and waters adjacent to the northeast portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba. Similar activity is inland over some sections of Cuba, and over the southwestern Caribbean S of 14N and W of 78W. This activity extends to inland Central America.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean with rough seas through Thu. These winds are expected to pulse to near-gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours through Thu morning. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just north of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. By Fri night, most of the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south-central basin in which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front is analyzed from near 31N28W southwestward to 28N30W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 25N37W. To the W of the front, a 1023 mb low pres is analyzed near 26N55W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad and strong area of high pressure centered over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is sustaining fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas south S of 25N between 67W-74W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds along with seas of about 6-8 ft are south of 20N and west of 30W, and moderate or weaker winds and moderate are over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas are will prevail south of 25N and west of 68W through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as the Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. The high will weaken on Wed night, allowing winds and seas to diminish from east to west. A weakening stationary front from 25N35W to 24N41W will dissipate tonight. In the longer term, two cold fronts passing across the north Atlantic might cause increasing winds and seas north of 28N and east of 70W from Thu night through Fri, and again from Sat night through Sun.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA