Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22. 5W from 03N to 15. 5N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate convection is depicted from 03N to 11N between 26W and the west coast of Africa.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 02N to 16N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 00N to 05N between 30W and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 18N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are depicted from 08. 5N to 16. 5N between 51W and 62W. This is wave is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the area.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 78. 5W south of 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This wave is interacting with an upper- level low, which is generating scattered moderate convection south of 18N and west of 76W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N16. 5W, and continues southwestward to 10N25W to 08N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 26W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

Relatively weak high pressure ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge, and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh SE winds west of 88W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas 1 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the Texas and NE Mexico coasts.

For the forecast, a weak ridge of high pressure extends westward from the western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally support mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through the weekend. These winds are expected to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds early next week. Slight to moderate seas will accompany these winds. Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support light winds and slight seas there through late Mon. A new high center will become established over the central Gulf by midweek, with similar conditions expected over much of the basin at that time.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection across the basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over a good portion of the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds are in the range of 6 to 9 ft. Fresh trade winds are over the Gulf of Honduras surrounding waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over this area. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in east swell are over the eastern section of the basin. Gentle to moderate southeast winds are over the northwestern portion of the sea along with seas of 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of next week. A tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles will move through the eastern Caribbean Sun through late Mon, and across the rest of the basin through late Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the wave.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on these features.

High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1022 mb high center analyzed near 27N55W. The pressure gradient between the high and relatively lower pressure to the south, including near the tropical waves, is sustaining mostly moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the majority of the waters south of about 22N as well as over the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Seas are in the range of 5 to 8 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds prevail along with seas 3 to 5 ft.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed between southeast Florida and Andros Island. Similar activity is seen north of 29N between 72W and 75W as a mid to upper-level trough slides eastward east of over the western Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, relatively weak high pressure remains over the basin. A weak frontal boundary will move offshore northeast Florida today, then stall and lift north as a warm front tonight into Sun. Fresh southwest winds north of 29N between 65W and 74W will diminish this afternoon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse to strong south of 22N into early next week, then be at mostly fresh speeds through the rest of the forecast period.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV