Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33. 5W, S of 11N, and is nearly stationary. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 00N30W, with the tropical wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west of the tropical wave near 00N35W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N and east of 25W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from Mobile Bay, Alabama to near Brownsville, Texas where it transitions to a stationary front. Dense low to mid level cloudiness is evident north of the front, but no significant convection. Fresh NE winds are noted north of the front. Gentle to moderate breezes and mostly 2-4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northern offshore waters of Texas tonight and Fri, then spread south of New Orleans and Florida Panhandle Fri night as the front sinks a bit farther south. The front will then stall and lift back to the north as a warm front late Fri night thru Sat. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the Gulf from the east. In response, winds will pulse to between fresh and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from north-central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the fronts.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong E winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and southwest Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades with nighttime pulses to near-gale at the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through early next week. Similar conditions are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras, through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A dissipating cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N53W then continues southwestward to near 26N60W. A frontal remnant trough then extends from that point to near 28N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen ahead of the front, generally north of 26N and west of 50W. Moderate SW winds and 3-4 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida ahead of a cold front in the Gulf. Gentle breezes and 2-3 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N and west of 50W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 4-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the discussion area.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off northeastern Florida late tonight, then gradually weaken as it shifts eastward north of 28N through Sat. It will bring southerly moderate winds off northern Florida through Fri. Then a stronger cold front is expected to follow a similar path Mon through Tue, followed by moderate to fresh winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Meanwhile, a surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 28N65W will support fresh to strong winds off northern Hispaniola might Sat through Mon nights.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen