Special Features

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1034 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa result in strong to near gale-force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale-force winds are expected 03/1500 to at least 04/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https: //wwmiws. wmo. int

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and between 25W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44N, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this trough.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 54W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No convection is present near this trough at this time.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 16N16W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 01N50W. No significant convection is evident near the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft, tropical moisture and diurnal heating support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of the basin and the Yucatan peninsula. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh winds and slight to moderate seas. . For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds and slight seas through tonight. A late-season cold front will enter the northeastern Gulf Wed morning, then stall from near Punta Gorda, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas behind this front and also north of the Yucatan Peninsula. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the south-central and southeast Gulf through Wed.

Caribbean Sea

A recent, partial scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force easterly winds, up to 31 kt, in the Gulf of Venezuela. This is due to the very tight pressure gradient between the expanding 1034 mb high pressure system SW of the Azores and very low pressures in northern Colombia. Fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas are found in the central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and shift east through late Wed. This pattern shift will allow fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean to diminish slightly, although fresh to strong winds may pulse off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge may rebuild by Sun, supporting fresh to strong winds and building seas across the central and northwest Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far NE Atlantic.

A cold front is sinking across the waters off NE Florida, extending from 31N74W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the front to the NW Bahamas and west of 75W. A tight pressure gradient between the front results fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N65W to 27N74W, followed by a stationary front to 27N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present ahead of the front to 62W and north of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are present ahead of the front to 55W and north of 27N.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical bridge centered southwest of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Africa result in fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas east of 25W. Moderate to locally fresh and seas of 6-9 ft are noted between 25W and 70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1009 mb low pressure area is moving northeast past Bermuda, with a stalling frontal boundary extending to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds, rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Wed southwest of Bermuda, north of 27N. A second low pressure area is moving from Cape Hatteras to Bermuda with a reinforcing front currently reaching from 31N74W to Daytona Beach, Florida, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. The fronts merge into one front from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Wed night. The merged front will stall from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and South Florida by Thu night, then meander northward as it weakens through Sun. Farther south, fresh winds will persist off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado