Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A cold front extends southwestward from central Florida to a 1016 mb low near 25N96W to near Veracruz, Mexico. Another cold front is analyzed from the low to 19N96W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are behind the fronts as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas of 6 to 9 ft with these winds prevail. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are east of the fronts, with seas near 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from the Florida Straits to southern Texas Mon night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the cold front through Mon. On Tue, the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume moving southward into Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. In the wake of the front, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

A fairly weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for moderate or weaker trades to exist across the basin, with the except for fresh trades possible in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia and within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles. Seas are about 3 to 5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support gentle to moderate winds over much of the forecast waters through the week. Fresh to strong NE winds may develop Tue night and Wed across the Windward Passage and at the lee of Cuba associated with a late- season cold front moving across Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A late-season cold front has entered the western Atlantic, analyzed from 31N78W to 29N81W. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail along and W of the front, while light to moderate SW winds are noted ahead of the front to 72W. Broad anticyclonic flow around a high pressure ridge that extends from near 31N53W to 28N69W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with its associated gradient bringing gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will continue to follow the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon afternoon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish Tue night as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N by late Wed. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda in the wake of the front. Large N swell may linger near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters near the Windward Passage.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA