Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ which continues to 02. 5N33W to 03N40W to near 01. 5N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 23W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

A trough is analyzed over the western Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the Gulf. Moderate northeast winds prevail over the southeastern Gulf, where seas are in the 3-5 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, generally prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will quickly push across the E Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri. The front will be accompanied by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. Afterwards, conditions across the entire Gulf will be quiescent for next couple of days as subtle high pressure prevails. A strong cold front should reach the N waters on Sun with increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and E Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with seas to 10 ft in large E swell through early next week. Some of this large swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages in the Lesser Antilles. A cold front should reach the Yucatan Channel on Mon with increasing winds and seas behind the front.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal boundary extends from 31N43W to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is along the boundary. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found N of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N38W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Fresh to locally strong winds are S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range south of the front to 20N and west of 50W. Elsewhere, seas of 7-10 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong W winds will develop north of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The new front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late tonight and extend from near 31N74W to the Florida Straits tomorrow morning, moving to 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N61W Sat morning. Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold front will be fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10 ft seas due to mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south of 25N east of 65W tonight and extending through early next week. Winds will improve across forecast waters Fri night through the weekend. Another cold front will reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun afternoon with increasing winds and building seas occurring behind the front.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL