Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 14 ft off Colombia Sat night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFEP2. shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from near 16N46W to 03N51W. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen within 120 nm west of the wave from 07N to 09N, and near its northern portion.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave.

Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W south of 19N moving westward also at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near its northern portion from 17N to 19N and between 80W and 82W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N21W and west-southwestward to 10N29W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N36W and to 08N47W. It resumes at 08N50W and to near the coast of Guyana at 07N57W. Dry air in place is keeping the tropics free of deep convective activity. Only a few showers are near the ITCZ between 32W and 35W and between 53W and 56W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge axis extends from Atlantic high pressure westward across the basin along 28N. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N. Seas are of moderate state south of 26N, and of slight state north of 26N.

Clusters of numerous to isolated strong convection are increasing over the SW Gulf and central Bay of Campeche. This activity is generally lifting north in response to an inverted mid-level trough that is over northeast Mexico near the Texas border.

For the forecast, the ridge will change little through the next few days keeping similar marine conditions as are initially being observed. Winds become mostly light and variable starting Mon over the north-central and NE Gulf. Occasional fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night into next week.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and on Sat night.

The pressure gradient between a nearly stagnant high pressure over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern South America continues to drive the trade throughout the basin. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes show strong to near gale-force easterly trades across the majority of the central portion of the sea. Moderate seas are being produced by these trades. Fresh trades along with slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of Honduras, also south of Cuba to near 20N and between 78W and 81W and across the eastern portion of the basin. Moderate or lighter winds along with slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere over the basin.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over some areas of the western portion of the basin as well between Cuba and Jamaica and the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early next week. A pair of tropical waves will move across the basin through Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A plume of Saharan dust and dry mid-latitude air cover much of the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

An expansive high pressure area, with its associated ridge axis near 27N is anchored by a 1022 mb high center near 27N59. 5W The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of about 24N and between 72W and 77W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are over these waters as depicted by overnight altimeter data passes. Moderate to fresh westerly winds along with moderate seas are north of 29N and west of 50W. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 23N and east of 45W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades are present south of 21N between 41W and the Lesser Antilles while fresh to strong northeast winds are seen from 19N to 27N east of 33W to the coast of Africa. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in east swell from 07N to 18N between 49N and the Lesser Antilles, 5 to 7 ft south of 23N east of 49W, except 6 to 8 ft in northeast swell from 19N to 27N east of 33W to the coast of Africa. Moderate or lighter winds and along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere.

A large upper-level low over the central Bahamas is attendant by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters from 21N to 25N between 72W and 76W. The low will continue to track westward toward South Florida and the Keys through Sat. The shower and thunderstorm activity may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning.

An expansive dense plume of Saharan dust along with dry mid- latitude air is suppressing the development of deep convective activity over the tropical Atlantic region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge near 28N will change little through the period. The weather pattern will generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre