Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends along a position from just south of Tallahassee, FL southwestward to near 20N96W and then inland over Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms follow the front near and just offshore of the Mexican coast. The front will sweep southeastward across the rest of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow behind the front across the western and northern Gulf. These winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around 12 ft (4 M). A 1604 UTC scatterometer pass indicated gale-force winds in convection immediately following the cold front. Seas following the cold front are currently analyzed at 5-8 ft. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls from near western Cuba and the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue evening, and as high pressure settles across the central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of southern Sierra Leone and extends to near 05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 01. 5N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 07N between 23W and 37W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms seen along these features and E of 23W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a cold front that will bring gale conditions to areas offshore of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon.

For the remainder of the Gulf ahead of the cold front, a surface trough is analyzed from the eastern Bay of Campeche into the SE Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of the trough. Another cold front segment extends from near Sarasota, FL to near 25N87W, with scattered showers in the area. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail away from the cold front.

For the forecast, a strong cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche will progress southeastward over the basin early this week. Gale force winds and localized very rough seas are expected offshore of Veracruz this afternoon and evening, with strong winds continuing in this region into early Tue. Widespread strong N winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front over the central and western Gulf into early Tue, with mainly fresh winds and moderate seas expected in the eastern basin. Winds and seas will diminish from northwest to southeast through Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead, weak high pressure will build over the basin later this week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

Caribbean Sea

Atlantic ridging continues to influence the pressure gradient across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas may develop near and to the west of these winds. An increasing pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the south-central basin will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean for mid to late week. Elsewhere, a persistent E swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas slightly subside. A new mixed N and E swell will renew rough seas over this region late Wed through the rest of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

A complex frontal boundary in the W Atlantic is analyzed from 31N36W along 30/31N to a 1010 mb low pres near 30N72W, with the boundary then extending southwestward to the FL coast near Port St. Lucie. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of this front generally N of 27N and W of 69W. A trough runs from north to south through another frontal low near 28N78W, and is also kicking off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Bahamas. A scatterometer pass from 1504 UTC indicated strong to near gale force SW winds ahead of the front generally N of 26N and W of 70W. Gale-force winds are occurring in the pre-frontal convection. To the north, Another weak cold front reaches from 31N77W to near Daytona Beach, FL. Moderate to fresh NW winds are following this front. In the East Atlantic, a pre- frontal trough runs from 30N35W to 26N47W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms seen along and ahead of this trough out to about 28W. Marine conditions in this region, confirmed by scatterometer and altimeter data, are characterized by fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 12-16 ft in NW swell N of 26N between 20W and 45W.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, surface ridging prevails. Fresh to strong trades and 6-9 ft seas are prevalent across much of the Atlantic S of 20N. From 20N to 26N and E of 45W, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 6-10 ft in NW swell prevail. For the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 30. 5N72. 5W to central Florida will progress eastward early this week, and fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell will develop in this region east of 70W today, and expand eastward into the central Atlantic by tonight. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible north of 30N and east of 62W by Tue morning. A second, stronger cold front pushing off the coast of the southeastern United States will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, and widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected in the wake of the front, generally north of 27N and west of 70W by late tonight, with these winds also expanding eastward toward the central Atlantic through Tue. A new N swell will support rough seas over the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before merging with the aforementioned rough seas in the central basin on Tue. Winds will diminish from west to east Tue into early Wed, with rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop off the coast of Florida mid to late week as a low pressure system moves off the east coast of the U. S.

$$ Adams Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster