Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front stretches southwestward from off the Carolinas coast across 31N78W to beyond central Florida. This front will gradually move southeastward and strengthen for through Wed, then stall from 31N65W to near the northwest Bahamas Wed evening through Thu night. A strong 1030 mb high pressure behind the front will cause NE fresh to strong winds currently off northeastern and central Florida to near 70W, to increase to between near-gale to gale-force by Tue morning. Seas under these winds will also build and reach 14 to 17 ft. As the stalled front weakens, winds behind it should decrease to between strong and near-gale by late Wed night. Seas will also steadily subside Thu through Thu night.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near Conakry, then reaches westward to 09N19W. Farther south, an ITCZ extends westward from 01N20W to near the Amazon River Delta area. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident up to 155 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends southwestward from just off Tampa, Florida to a 1013 mb low near 24N94W, then curves southward as a cold front to beyond Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of the stationary front across the entier northern Gulf. Scattered showers are found near and west of the cold across the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds with seas of 7 to 10 ft exist behind the stationary and cold front. In addition, winds near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico are peaking at near gale-force. South and east of the fronts, gentle NE to E winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front will start moving southeastward as a cold front and reach from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight, then drift slowly southeast of the basin Tue and Tue night. Scattered thunderstorms with locally gusty winds will accompany the front. Strong NE winds and rough seas will continue in the western Gulf behind the front tonight, then strong NE winds will develop in the northeastern basin, as low pressure develops in the Atlantic after the front exits the Gulf of America. Conditions will improve on as high pressure from the eastern U. S builds southwestward toward the northern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A fair and modest trade-wind regime continues across the entire Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E to SE trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure north of Colombia will maintain moderate to fresh winds at the central and eastern through Wed. By Wed night, stronger high pressure building south toward the region will increase winds to between fresh and strong mainly east of 72W.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section at the very beginning about an upcoming Gale Warning. An upper-level trough extends southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to the central Bahamas.

A cold front stretches southwestward from off the Carolinas coast across 31N78W to beyond central Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted behind this front. Coupling with convergent southeasterly trade winds, scattered moderate convection is found from 21N to 25N between 60W and 70W. In the east Atlantic, another cold front reaches southwestward from northwest of Medeira across 30N30W to near 29N43W. Scattered showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side of the front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen off Georgia and northeastern Florida behind the first cold front. Fresh NE to ENE winds with 10 to 14 ft seas in large N swell exist behind the second cold front in the east Atlantic. Gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen north of 29N between 43W and the first cold front. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large N to NE swell exist.

For the forecast west of 55W, the first cold front will move slowly southeastward and reach from 31N72W to South Florida by Tue, then stall from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Wed. Low pressure is forecast to form along the front in the vicinity of the Bahamas on Tue, then accelerate northeastward along the boundary and out of the basin toward Bermuda by Wed. As the pressure gradient increases behind this low and strong high pressure building into the southeastern U. S. , already strong NE winds north and west of the front will increase further, with gales developing Tue afternoon offshore NE Florida, then spreading east between the Bahamas and Bermuda Tue night into Wed. Very rough seas in excess of 15 kt are likely in the area of gales. With the frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary late this week, conditions will be slow to improve.

Chan Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster