Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force tonight through early Sat morning, and Sat night through Sun morning again. Seas under these winds are expected to peak between 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis from 01N30W to 10N26W. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 25W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis from 04N51W to 17N44W. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 14N between 43W and 53W.

A tropical wave is located along 78W from 10N southward, moving westward at around 20 kt. The wave appears to be enhancing strong convection over Panama and Colombia as well as the adjacent waters.

The wave in the western Caribbean that was previously mentioned in this discussion has since crossed over into the Eastern Pacific. Please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion for information on that wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 03N46W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on convection.

Gulf Of America

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche as well as along the coast of FL from the Keys to the FL Panhandle, while generally dry conditions prevail in the rest of the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are found in the Gulf W of 90W, as well as the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist over the Gulf region through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning off Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the islands combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and again Sat. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level shortwave north of the Leeward Islands is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 24N between 56W and 62W. Elsewhere, a broad Atlantic ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system near 34N49W supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge will persist across the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north- to-south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

Posted 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams