Special Features

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is centered near 29. 7N 94. 5W at 18/0300 UTC or 30 nm NNE of Galveston Texas, moving NE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present well east of the center. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast Thursday through Friday. On the forecast track, the remnants of Arthur should move farther inland over southeastern Texas and western Louisiana tonight, then cross the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday. While additional weakening is expected as the system moves inland, the remnants of Arthur will continue to produce widespread heavy rains across the southeastern United States during the next few days. Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest Arthur NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 10N and east of 29W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N and between 30W and 42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are seen near the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 05N37W and then from 05N40W to 00N50W. See the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on convection.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur impacting portions of the NW Gulf and adjacent land areas.

Outside of the influence of ex-Arthur, the remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Storm Arthur remains along the Texas coast near 29. 7N 94. 5W at 11 PM EDT, moving northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The weakening remnants of Arthur will move northeastward and into SW Louisiana tonight and dissipate. Strong thunderstorms occurring well to the E of Arthur are offshore of SE Louisiana and will shift NE tonight through Thu. S to SW swell generated by Arthur and associated thunderstorms are likely to cause large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions along the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast for the next day or two. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient will develop over the basin tonight and sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf tonight through Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will begin to diminish late Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate easterly winds and 4-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge will remain in place along 27N-28N through the upcoming weekend while weakening slightly Fri night through Sat night, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale-force tonight, Thu night and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through Mon. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW portions Wed through Fri as an upper-level trough digs into the area.

Atlantic Ocean

The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 23N and west of 35W. In the far east, fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present from 17N to 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will remain in place along 27N-28N through the upcoming weekend while weakening slightly Fri night through Sat night, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE Florida. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 72W will expand eastward to near 65W through tonight, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U. S. The front is expected to move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore NE Florida by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 40 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado