Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from near the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 00N25W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A strong ridge over the eastern United States is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft north of a line from SE Texas to the western tip of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted south the aforementioned line. A few showers are noted east of southern Texas, while generally dry conditions persist across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U. S. will support strong northeast winds and rough seas across the northeast Gulf through early this afternoon. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin through the middle of next week, except for occasional strong east winds off western Cuba and off the northwest Yucatan. Rough seas will continue in the Straits of Florida into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across the NW Gulf in the offshore waters of Texas. This activity may hold together through this afternoon.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the strong ridge over the eastern United States and lower pressures in northern South America results in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the north- central, SW and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. No significant convection is seen across the basin. However, shallow pockets of moisture are causing isolated showers in the eastern and central Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola starting on Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and stretches southwestward to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of 23N and between 60W and 72W. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the eastern United States sustains fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and rough seas are evident ahead of the front to 57W and north of 28N.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge south of the Azores that forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and eastern Atlantic, especially north of 12N and east of 57W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Moderate to locally fresh and seas of 6-10 ft are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between the front and ridge over the eastern United States will maintain strong northeast through tonight, then mostly fresh wind speeds will prevail until Sun. Rough seas from large northeast swell will linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected early on Sun and continue through early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado