Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N17W across 02N30W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 12W and 26W, and from 02N to 07N between 37W and 47W.

Gulf Of America

A 1019 mb high remains stationary over the east-central Gulf, providing moderate or weaker SE winds and slight seas to the eastern half of the basin. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and low pressure along Mexico and Texas, ahead of the next front, is supporting fresh to strong SE winds W of 90W along with moderate seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight while expanding eastward over much of the eastern Gulf. These winds will preceed the next cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas Fri night. Strong to near gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale speed near Tampico Sat morning, and Veracruz adjacent waters late Sat through Mon morning. The front will exit the basin Mon morning and conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Caribbean Sea

A 1018 mb high east of the northern Bahamas sustains a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. The gradient between the ridge and low pressure over NW Colombia supports strong to near gale force NE to E winds off Colombia and S Panama where seas are rough to 10 ft. Fresh trades are elsewhere across the central basin, including the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Mon night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SE Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely in the Windward Passage late Fri into Sat night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean, except for fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba developing tonight and continuing into Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure of 1018 mb E of the northern Bahamas is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the subtropical waters W of 45W. A cold front is in the central subtropical waters, extending from 31N42W to 25N49W where it transtions to a surface trough that continues to the Virgin Islands. Scattered heavy showers are within 240 nm ahead of the front and N of 23N, and gales are ongoing N of 30N. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, stronger high pressure of 1034 mb near the Azores, supports fresh to strong NE to E winds E of 42W and rough seas to 12 ft. The fresh winds and rough seas to 9 ft extend to the tropical Atlantic waters E of 53W.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in the wake of a cold front with tail just N of the region will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the offshores E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage from this evening through Sun. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning and dissipate Mon night into Tue.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos