Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant convection is ongoing.

For the forecast, high pressure dominating the basin will weaken and slide east by Sat, allowing a cold front to move offshore Texas Sat night. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SE winds will dominate, except for the Florida Straits where locally strong E winds will prevail. The cold front will slowly track into the SE basin by early next week, with strong NE winds expect across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front, along with rough seas.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward Passage. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper-level divergence is yielding scattered moderate convection in the NW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. This weekend, the high will weaken some and move east, loosening the gradient and allowing winds and seas to decrease some. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 26N22W to 21N28W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 37W, including the Canary Islands. It is also now generating scattered moderate convection from 23N to 27N between 19W and 24W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas will only slowly decrease through the weekend as the high weakens and slides eastward. An inverted surface trough will from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night, weakening winds further. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U. S. early Mon and move slowly southeastward, reaching from 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning.

$$ Konarik Posted about 7 hours ago by NHC Forecaster