Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 15W, south of 17N, based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N and east of 28W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 04N to 10N and between 32W and 42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 05N30W and to 03N41W. Please read the Tropical Waves section.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores extends a ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin this week. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse off Yucatan nightly during the first half of the week. Meanwhile, a moderate pressure gradient will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late tonight before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through the week.

Caribbean Sea

The aforementioned subtropical ridge supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to roughnseas over much of the Caribbean south, especially south of 18N. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colomia. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the islands will force fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting tonight through Tue night and then late in the week. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Lastly, fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas to 9 ft are also forecast east of the Lesser Antilles during much of this week.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1027 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 22N and east of 30W. Farther east, fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found from 17N to 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly fresh to locally strong speeds off northern Hispaniola and seas may build up to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado