Special Feature

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is just inland the southeastern coast of the U. S. Ahead of it, southerly winds have increased to 25 to 35 kt in a tightening pressure gradient over a a portion of the waters east of northern Florida along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. These winds are primarily north of 29N and between 75W and 77W. They will spread eastward during the morning. The cold front will reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by early this afternoon, at which time these winds are expected to shift north of 31N.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends southwestward to 03N22W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to inland Brazil at 02S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 16W-20W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 17W-20W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from is analyzed from north-central Florida southwestward to 25N88W to the central Bay of Campeche. Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows fresh west to northwest winds behind the front to near 90W, and gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are west of 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the winds behind the front, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 25N east of 94W and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the far northwest Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin this afternoon. Winds over the NE Gulf will gradually diminish this morning as high pressure in the wake of the front begins to slide eastward across the area. Winds will become gentle to moderate along with slight to moderate seas beginning this afternoon and continuing into early Tue before southerly moderate to fresh winds develop in the western Gulf. These winds will expand eastward in coverage through Fri as low pressure, with an attendant cold front move through central Texas.

Caribbean Sea

A frontal remnant trough extends across Puerto Rico southwestward into the east-central Caribbean along 68W. Fresh northeast to east winds prevail north of about 15N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia to 15N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, a 1034 mb high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas east of 80W, and gentle to moderate southeast winds in the the northwestern part of the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean will strengthen by the end of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the northwest waters for this morning. Please refer to the Special Feature section above for more details.

A cold front is analyzed from the north-central Atlantic through 31N41W to 23N49W, then becomes stationary to 19N63W and a frontal remnant trough to Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes are north and northwest of the front to near 72W. Anticyclonic light to gentle winds are north of 24N between of 51W and 57W in response to a 1023 mb high center near 32N61W and a 1024 mb high center that is near 33N53W. North of 25N and west of 72W, southerly winds are fresh to near gale outside the gale-force winds as described above under Special Features. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds, except 3 ft or less in the lee of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere, except for higher seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 18N between 46W and 52W, and seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 27N between 37W and 46W with fresh to strong south winds ahead of a cold front.

East of the cold front to 35W and north f 26N, fresh south to southwest winds prevail along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. East of 35W and N of 10N, fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail due to an enhanced pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N14W and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere south of 20N to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W outside of the Gale Warning area, low pressure intensifying offshore the Carolinas will pull a cold front across the offshore waters of northern Florida today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front, with a squall line are north of 28N between 74W and 77W. This activity will continue eastward into the afternoon. The cold front will reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by early this afternoon, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba tonight, then from near 31N58W to 24N65W and stationary to South Florida Tue. The cold front portion will move east of 55W late Tue while the stationary portion weakens, with frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front Wed. An expanding areas of fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas will precede the front today. Fresh to strong winds northerly winds and building seas will follow the front through late tonight. Seas may possibly reach 14 ft in the far northern forecast waters Tue, then shift to the far northeast part of the area Wed before moving east of 55W Wed night. The fresh to strong winds will diminish on Tue. Rough seas will linger elsewhere east of 60W through Thu. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre