Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Guinea near 10N14W, then continues southward to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 00N28W to 02S45W to coastal Brazil. Isolated moderate convection extends from 05N southward, east of 40W.

Gulf Of America

A 1022 mb high is centered near 29N84W in the NE Gulf. Winds in the Florida Straits and just north of Yucatan are NE to E fresh. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2-5 ft across the Gulf this evening. No deep convection is occurring.

For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlantic across Florida into the northern Gulf. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night.

Caribbean Sea

An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic southward to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the Leeward Islands. No other deep convection is noted across the Caribbean. A high pressure ridge north of the Bahamas is forcing fresh to strong NE winds with seas 5-7 ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 5-6 ft are also occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas off the coast of Colombia overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola overnight as well. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from 29N61W southwestward to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 18N-23N between 60W-65W. Farther northeast, a stationary front extends from 28N50W to beyond 31N35W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front. An expansive Bermuda-Azores High north of our waters is interacting with the surface trough to cause fresh to strong NE winds from Bermuda, across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 8-12 ft east of the Bahamas. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades over the remainder of the forecast waters. Large NE swell is causing seas of 8-10 ft north of 27N between 35W-50W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north of 20N and east of 20W with seas 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift west toward Hispaniola on Wed, and the southeastern Bahamas on Thu, then dissipate Fri. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through mid week, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens and leaves weak high pressure over the region. Looking ahead, strong N winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea/Rubio