Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 07N23W to 08. 5N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 52W.

Gulf Of America

A strong high pressure north of the area dominates the Gulf of America, supporting mainly dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and lower pressures associated with a cold front in the NW Caribbean results in fresh to strong N-NE winds over much of the basin and seas of 5-10 ft. The strongest winds are found in SE Gulf and the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and associated rough seas will diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the SE U. S. SE return flow will quickly develop in the NW Gulf Sat and reach strong speeds offshore Texas, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sat night, then stall through Mon before moving SE through the basin early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the front in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface winds. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident behind the frontal boundary, with seas peaking near 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present in the central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and south- central Caribbean overnight, with moderate trades elsewhere in the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend as the gradient weakens some. The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate through late Sat. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas behind it through the Yucatan Channel will diminish as the front decays. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is found along the front. A strong ridge over the east-central United States is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front from Bermuda to central Cuba is followed by fresh to locally strong N winds. This front will gradually dissipate through Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night.

$$ KRV Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster