Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 08N and between 32W and 45W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N24W. The ITCZ extends from 08N24W to 04N39W and then from 04N41W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 08N and east of 30W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft associated with a deep upper level trough and tropical moisture being pulled northward result in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection between 85W and 90W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the nearshore waters of southern Texas and northern Tamaulipas. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the eastern part of the Gulf, east of 90W. Strongest winds are occurring in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extending west-southwestward across Florida into the central Gulf will sustain gentle to moderate SE to S winds through the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh off the northern Yucatan through Thu night. An upper-level trough across the central Gulf should continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf into Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

The southeastern end of a pronounced mid to upper-level trough is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern Caribbean. Convergent trades are producing similar weather between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and across the northeastern basin, including waters near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also found in the SW Caribbean, especially off Panama.

A tight pressure gradient forces strong to near-gale easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Easterly swell is causing rough seas in the Atlantic water passages of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean with rough seas into Fri. These winds are expected to pulse to near- gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours through Thu. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. By Fri, most of the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south- central basin in which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N31W and continues southwestward to 25N40W, followed by a stationary front to 26N64W. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted behind the fronts. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds and rough seas south and west of a line from 27N74W to 19N60W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated across waters south of 25N and west of 60W through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as the Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. As the high weakens Wed night, winds and seas will diminish from east to west. A weakening stationary front from 25N53W to 29N64W will dissipate this afternoon. Rough seas north of it will diminish by tonight.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado