Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning, in effect for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira, Meteor and Agadir, until 21/00 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated very large swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website: https: //wwmiws. wmo. int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft into Sat night, mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage with the remaining very rough seas subsiding below 12 ft near the Canary Islands Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Biassau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and west of 17W.

Gulf Of America

A broad ridge near the mouth of the Mississippi River dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a stationary front SE of the area is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds across the SE Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, mainly moderate NE winds and moderate seas prevail. Over the NW Gulf, winds are light to gentle, and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and a weakening stationary front over the western Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected nightly, through the forecast period, across the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A weakening stationary front extends along 80W from central Cuba to just offshore Nicaragua near 12N, with a surface trough paralleling the boundary about 90 nm to the east. A few showers are noted with these boundaries, especially east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong N winds prevail W of the front, with seas to 7 ft. To the east of these features, gentle to moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will continue to follow the aforementioned front forecast to dissipate on Fri offshore Nicaragua. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage through early Sun as high pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Colombia early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France and associated large northerly swells across the far NE waters.

A stationary front enters the western Atlantic near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A weak low pressure and surface trough are noted ahead of the front near 25N71W. Scattered showers are seen ahead of the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are occurring behind the front.

In the east Atlantic, a cold front arches from the Canary Islands to 22N26W to 26N35W. Strong to near gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas are north of 22N and east of 41W, with hazardous marine conditions in association with this front depicted further in the aforementioned Special Marine section above. The rough seas in NE swell extend much farther S and W, reaching to 15N and as far W as 55W.

Between these two frontal systems and across the remainder of the basin, an expansive 1030 mb ridge centered near 38N45W dominates. This is leading to moderate to fresh mainly E winds S of the high across area waters, with moderate to rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and rough are observed of either side of the front N of 25N. A low pressure developed ahead of the front, however it is forecast to merge with the front tonight as the front transitions to a cold front. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas ahead and behind the front will continue across the offshore waters N of 25N through the Sun night when the front is forecast to move east of 55W. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters N of 27N through the middle of the next week.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado