Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern tropical wave is near 24/25W from 15N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 15N between 20W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 15N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 07N to 09N between 50W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W from 17N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 56W and 61W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 20N16W and curves southwestward to 04N36W. The ITCZ extends from 04N36W to 04N50W. Convection near these areas is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails across the area, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N87W. Light winds, and smooth seas, are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the weekend. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed night, then mainly fresh winds there afterward.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure prevails N of the area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with seas in the 8-14 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough seas in the central basin through Wed morning, then become confined to the south-central basin Wed and Wed night before expanding northward again Thu through the weekend. Expect winds near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia, during the nighttime and early morning hours, except for Wed night through Thu morning. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu morning, diminishing to moderate winds and seas afterward.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 25N between 40W and 70W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the region through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the N coast of Hispaniola each late afternoon through night through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected S of 22N through Thu before diminishing. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster AL