Special Features

Eastern Atlantic Gale Waring: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir and Tarfaya Marine Zones starting 14/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www. meteofrance. com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A weakening stationary front meanders northwestward from southern Florida to beyond New Orleans, Louisiana. Latest observations along with composite satellite imagery reveal patchy dense fog is present near northern Yucatan Peninsula, Naples Florida and along the Texas/Louisiana coast. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the central and eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support light to gentle winds across much of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate winds across the western Gulf. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds today ahead of a cold front that will enter the Gulf waters this weekend. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in the N-central and NE Gulf with this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of the area by Mon. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A broad surface trough is generating scattered showers near Hispaniola. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime persists across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are evident off northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the southeastern and rest of the south-central basin, including the ABC Islands. Moderate with fresh NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Mostly gentle NE to E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will develop over the Windward Passage and S of Dominican Republic this weekend as a high pressure center passes N of the area and tightens the pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to 25N72W, then continues westward as a stationary front to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are present near and up to 100 nm northwest of the front. Farther east, convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate convection N of 22N between 47W and 61W. Near and north of the Mona Passage, a surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

For the western Atlantic north of 20N between 55W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, gentle to moderate SW to NW to NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. To the east, moderate to fresh E to SSE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate north of 27N between 44W and 63W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will shift eastward with high pressure building in the wake of the front. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another cold front that will move off the SE U. S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster ERA