Special Features

Gulf of America Residual Swell: Residual NW to N wind swell occurring behind the strong Gulf of America cold front, will maintain seas of 12 to 15 ft seas in the southwestern Gulf, south of 23N and west of 85W, including the Bay of Campeche through mid afternoon, and in Yucatan Channel through this evening. Afterward, seas will continue to subside, falling below below 12 ft tonight.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period N swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic, will continue to propagate southward of 31N this morning through Wed morning, Expect seas to quickly build to between 12 and 16 ft from 27N to 31N between 35W and 46W this afternoon. These very rough seas will shift farther southward tonight to near 23N Wed morning, and then become reinforced with additional large N swell Wed through Thu. Seas across these northeastern waters will remain 12 ft and greater through at least Fri.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then curves southwestward to 03N20W. An ITCZ continues from 01. 5N24W to the coast of Brazil near 02. 5S43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03. 5N to 06N between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 04N between 17W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section about very rough seas.

A strong cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Keys, across the Straits and along the NW coast of Cuba to inland across the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 90 nm ahead of this front, including the Yucatan Channel, as well as across coastal portions of Mexico across the Bay of Campeche. 1029 mb high pressure is centered along the central Texas coast and acting to drive fresh to strong northerly winds across the entire basin, strongest across the Bay of Campeche. Northerly wind swell generated by these winds is producing seas of 2-4 ft across the north gulf coastal waters to 12 to 15 ft across the Bay of Campeche, where seas likely peaked at 18 ft last night. Strong to near gale- force NW to N winds and seas at 12 to 15 ft persist off Veracruz.

For the forecast, the cold front will drift further southeastward into the NW Caribbean through Thu before stalling. Winds and seas will gradually decrease this afternoon and evening, except for the southeastern Gulf, where moderate to strong N to NE winds will linger until late this evening. Rough to very rough seas behind the front will gradually subside from north to south today through this evening. In the wake of the front on Wed, high pressure will build across the region and prevail into the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Convergent southeasterly trade winds continue to trigger scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms between southeastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. Recent satellite scatterometer and altimeter data confirmed fresh to strong E winds with 8 to 11 ft seas across the eastern and central basin. These winds are supported by strong high pressure over the west-central Atlantic. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the north Atlantic to the central Bahamas and the NE Caribbean will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the Tropical Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages through Wed. A cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of America this afternoon, and will slow down and possibly stall from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning before dissipating. This should decrease the influence from the ridge and allow winds and seas across the central and eastern Caribbean to gradually subside through Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A strong cold front extends southwestward from offshore of the SE U. S. , through the Carolina coast across 31N74W, across the far NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys, then through the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to flare up within 200 nm southeast of this front, from the central Bahamas northward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also occruring from the central Bahamas across the eastern half of Cuba, to a broad inverted surface trough extending from just E of the cold front across central Cuba and into the Caribbean. East of the front, an expansive and strong surface ridge dominates the basin, extending from 1041 mb hihg pressure near 41N47W, southward into the tropics N of 10N. A weakening cold front curves southwestward from just south of the Azores across 31N25W to near 28N46W. Strong NE winds and seas of 10-13 ft in N swell prevail north of the front. Scattered showers are seen up to 90 nm along south of this boundary. Well to the south, modest convergent trades are generating scattered moderate convection near the coast of Brazil from Sao Luis westward to near the Amazon River Delta area.

Fresh to strong S to SW winds with seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail within a narrow 90 nm wide band, northeast of the Bahamas and east of the western Atlantic cold front, while fresh NW winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are seen behind the front. To the east and south, fresh to locally strong anticyclonic NE to Se winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft in mixed swell dominate the waters north of 10N between 35W and 60W, and from 20N to 25N west of 60W. Across the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 30W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in NE swell prevails.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds and rough seas will shift eastward with the cold front through Wed morning. By Wed afternoon, the front will stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas while weakening. This should allow winds and seas north of 26N to gradually decrease during the second half of the week. In response to this front, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas currently from 10N to 27N, including the central and southeast Bahamas should slowly subside tonight through Thu morning.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling