Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system west of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds N of Colombia through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale force winds at night offshore Colombia through Wed. Rough to locally very rough seas are forecast with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection within 200 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The cold front that was moving across the Gulf waters is currently east of the basin. A 1027 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh N winds east of a line from the Florida Big Bend to 20N97W in the SW Gulf. Rough to very rough seas are occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to rough seas are found in the eastern and south-central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, lingering fresh to strong N winds in the Bay of Campeche will diminish to moderate or weaker speeds tonight, however rough seas are forecast to subside late Mon. High pressure will build southward into the region on Mon with improving marine conditions from N to S. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek, as well as a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends from the Bay of Pigs in western Cuba to the Bay Islands and northern Honduras. Scattered showers are evident in the Bay Islands and ahead of the front, between the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will reach from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon morning, then stall over the same area by Tue morning, before gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are forecast in the wake of the front through Wed evening. Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with the frontal boundary in the northwest Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur in northern Honduras early Tue through early Wed, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be possible. .

Atlantic Ocean

A storm-force low off the Mid-Atlantic extends a cold front southwestward that enters our waters near 31N75W and continues to the NW Bahamas and west-central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force winds ahead of the boundary, mainly north of 30N. Rough seas are evident in these waters. Moderate to fresh winds winds and moderate to rough seas are found elsewhere in the SW North Atlantic, mainly west of 65W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1035 mb high pressure system west of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and Africa result in fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 12N to 23N and between 42W and 51W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Atlantic high pressure will enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W through Thu. A cold front, currently moving across the northern Bahamas, will bring fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas north of 27N through tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and the front will also support fresh to strong southerly winds N of 27N and ahead of the front through tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Tue morning, then stall on Wed from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas before dissipating. High pressure building over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into the middle of the week.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado