Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 07N and E of 15W, and also from 03S to 01. 5N between 37W and 44W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front meanders northwestward from central Florida to the SE LA coast. A fog bank is seen on satellite along the FL coast from near Ft Myers to the Big Bend region, with another fog bank along the LA and SE TX coasts as well. Mariners should be aware of the potential for lower visibility in these areas. Elsewhere, a pair of highs in the Gulf maintains a ridge across the basin, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevailing basin-wide.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support light to gentle winds across much of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate winds across the western Gulf. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds on Sat ahead of a cold front that will enter the Gulf waters this weekend. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in the North- central and NE Gulf with this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of the area by Mon. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin, with fresh to strong E to NE winds and 6-8 ft seas in the south- central to SW basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas dominate the north-central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Mainly gentle NE winds and 2-5 ft seas are noted at the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will develop over the Windward Passage and S of Dominican Republic this weekend as a high pressure center passes N of the area and tightens the pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N56W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are seen along and near this feature. Rough seas and moderate to fresh NW winds are behind the front. Ahead of the front, a pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 26N57W to 31N54W, with scattered moderate convection occurring N of 30N and W of 50W. To the south, another trough extends from 22N61W southwestward along the northern Hispaniola coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and near the trough axis.

Over the far the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front reaches southwestward from the Moroccan coast near 30N10W across the Canary Islands to near 26N34W. Rough seas and moderate to fresh N winds also follow this front. The pressure difference between a 1033 mb high near 35N30W and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong trades across much of the remaining Atlantic E of 60W, along with seas of 6-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, with slight seas observed in the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N58W to south Florida. Rough seas prevail in the vicinity of the front. The front will shift eastward with high pressure building in the wake of the front. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another cold front that will move off the SE U. S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front.

$$ Adams Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster