Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends SW to 01S28W. The ITCZ continues from 01S28W to 02S40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 05N east of 17W, and from 06S to 03N between 23W and 43W.

Gulf Of America

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted north of 27. 5N between 85. 5W and 89W. Otherwise, a surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 88W and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night. Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in a cluster of severe thunderstorms currently located over SE Louisiana and regional waters.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough, currently located between Cuba and the Bahamas lifts NE this weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as high pressure builds again N of the area.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from a 1011 mb low pressure located near 24N71W westward to the Straits of Florida. These features are supporting scattered to isolated moderate convection in the vicinity of the low. Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of convection associated with the low are likely. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a pair of 1020 mb highs W of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas are ongoing over the north-central Atlantic in connection with an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics all the way to the Lesser Antilles offshores. Seas are moderate across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough and low are forecast to move eastward this weekend before dissipating on Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters through tonight. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N58W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV