Tropical Waves

The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has it axis along 21. 5W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted from 03N to 06N between 20W and 25. 5W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 34W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 05. 5N between 35W and 40W near the ITCZ to the W.

A tropical wave is in the Tropical N Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles, along 59. 5W, south of 17N to across Barbados and Guyana, moving westward at around 20 kt. No significant convection is noted over water.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 67W, south of the Mona Passage at 18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over portions of Venezuela and Colombia but not over water away from from shore.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 82W, south of 20N to across western Panama and into the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. The tropical wave continues to interact with an upper trough near 80W with scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from 15N to 21N between 71W and 80W impacting portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti, continuing to portions of the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04N32W. The ITCZ extends from 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Other than the convection associated with two tropical waves as described above, scattered moderate is also noted from 02N to 03. 5N between 40. 5W and 43. 5W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure of 1018 mb is analyzed in the NE Gulf near Apalachee Bay at 29. 5W84W. The diurnal surface trough is analyzed over the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula resulting in fresh to strong NE-E winds within about 60-120 nm of the northern and western Yucatan. Otherwise, mainly Gentle to moderate E-SE flow dominates the basin, locally fresh through the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 21N and W of 87W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Some scattered convection is evident near the coast of Tampico, and from offshore Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through Mon. Winds will be easterly at mostly fresh speeds across most of the western and central Gulf S of 26N through midweek. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings through Wed. Slight to moderate seas will prevail with these winds.

Caribbean Sea

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea with a third in the tropical N Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles, Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details including significant convection.

Otherwise, high pressure ridging prevails N of the area and E of 70W with surface troughing W of 70W over portions of the Bahamas. This pressure pattern combined with the passing tropical waves supports mainly moderate to fresh easterly trades across much of the basin, except for weaker winds in the Lee of Cuba and in the SW Caribbean where the pressure gradient is weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft from 11N to 18N to the E of 77W, and mainly 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean through Sun as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details including any related significant convection.

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N58W to 28N65W with the remnant western portion as a frontal trough to the Central Bahamas. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near the boundary. More prevalent and deeper convection is over the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands due to an upper level trough extending from the Caribbean near 80W. Moderate to fresh winds are prevailing near this convection. Otherwise, high pressure centered just N of the area along 33N to the E of the dissipating front dominates the weather pattern across our waters. Gentle to moderate winds, mainly return flow, dominates N of 22N and W of 45W with 4-5 ft seas in easterly swell. To the E, a tight pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing over NW Africa continues to support fresh to strong N-NE winds N of 16N and E of 40W with 6-10 ft seas, highest NE of the Canary and Madeira Islands. Mainly moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas in NE-E swells dominate the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening frontal boundary extending from near 31N57W to near 27N65W will dissipate tonight. A surface trough extending from near 27N65W to the southeastern Bahamas will drift westward through Mon night. A cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Tue through Wed, and gradually dissipate by Thu. High pressure will follow the front, and will be centered near Bermuda by Wed. This weather pattern will generally support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into next week, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between Hispaniola and Cuba starting late Wed.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky