Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has it axis along 16. 5W, south of 17N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 11. 5N and east of 25. 5W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 10N and between 35. 5W and 40. 5W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the tropical wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 05N30W and to 04N46. 5W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for information about convection near the area.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores extends a ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin this week. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula nightly during the first half of the week. A moderate pressure gradient will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late tonight before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf through the week.

Caribbean Sea

The aforementioned subtropical ridge supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the Caribbean, especially south of 18N. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present in the SW Caribbean in association to the end of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will prevail north of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight through Tue night. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the week.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1030 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 23N and west of 35W. Farther east, fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found from 14N to 27N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly fresh to locally strong speeds off northern Hispaniola and seas may build up to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster KRV