Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is near the Cape Verde Islands, extending from 05N to 17N with axis near 25W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by this wave, is between 27W and the W coast of Africa from 04N to 15N.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 17N with axis near 34W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 12N between 30W and 38W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, with axis south of 20N and near 68W, which is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 20N between 65W and 70W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13. 5N16. 5W and continues southwestward to 08N22W. The ITCZ is analyzed in two segments, one from 08N26W to 08N33W and the other from 09N36W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 38W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW across the SE U. S. and across the Gulf waters. This supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Convergent surface winds are leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are across the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, the E Pacific extension of the monsoon continues to support numerous moderate to strong convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N and W of 74W, including inland over Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Wed night. Expect winds to reach near- gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Otherwise, a tropical wave with axis along 69W this morning is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. The wave and its associated moisture will continue to impact parts of the eastern and central Caribbean today and tonight.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the area along 31N-33N between 55W and 77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between the front and 27N. Similar shower activity is farther east within 60 nm either side of a surface trough that extends from 30N46W to 26N52W. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across much of the waters S of 22N. North of 22N and W of 40W away from the front and surface trough, winds are moderate or weaker from the S to SW and seas slight.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward into central Florida through midweek. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward Passage.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams