Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is has come off the coast of West Africa. Its axis extends from 03N to 12N and along 16W, moving westward at 5 kt. There is no significant convection associated with it at this time.

A tropical wave is along 29W, south of 10N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 25W and 35W.

A tropical wave is along 41W, south of 11N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the southern portion of the wave and near the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 38W and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 77W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level low center to its W, producing scattered moderate convection from 14N to 19N between 70W and 81W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of West Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N26W, then west of a tropical wave from 04N31W to 04N37W, then west of a second tropical wave from 04N42W to 03N51W. See the tropical waves section for information about convection.

Gulf Of America

High pressure located over the central Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf region. This system is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and in the SE Gulf. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through Fri supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. A trough, or low pressure may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south central or southwestern portions of the Gulf, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche at night through Wed attendant by fresh to strong winds and slight to moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Central America is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the the majority of the basin along with mostly moderate seas. A tropical wave moving across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean is generating some showers across the region. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, as the pressure gradient tightens further between the Atlantic high pressure and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America this will likely lead to an increase of the trade winds to fresh to strong speeds starting early Mon evening in the central and northwestern sections of the basin, and lasting through the rest of the period. Trade winds of fresh speeds are expected over the eastern section of the basin starting Wed night. The trade winds in the northwestern part of the basin are expected to become fresh to strong, predominately southeast in direction, beginning on Wed as a trough, or low pressure may shift northward or northwestward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south-central or southwestern portions of the Gulf of America.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details including any related significant convection.

A surface trough extends from 28N72W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores. Under the influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 48W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas are found north of 20N and east of 44W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to 7 ft are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then stall near 27N through Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh east winds are expected between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, and westward to the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba beginning late Wed night. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos