Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W through 02N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen E of 15W from the Equator to the African coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ, S of 04N between 18W and 38W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front was analyzed from near Gulfport, MS to near 26N92W at 1200 UTC this morning, with a pre-frontal squall line occurring just ahead. Convection within the squall line is producing SW winds of near-gale to gale-force strength. Scatterometer data confirm fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 25N, with seas of 6-8 ft. Much of the remaining Gulf N of 22N is seeing moderate to fresh SW to W winds and moderate seas prevail, while gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. However in the far SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche mainly offshore Veracruz, NW winds are fresh to strong due to enhanced northerly flow behind the cold front and a strengthening pressure gradient with high pressure building over northern Mexico.

For the forecast, a cold front across the central Gulf will move eastward today, accompanied by fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate to rough seas. The front will move SE of the area by Mon afternoon, with winds and seas decreasing. High pres will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek.

Caribbean Sea

A frontal remnant trough extends from Puerto Rico southwestward in to the east-central Caribbean, while another surface trough also extends from Haiti southward into the central basin. These support fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of each trough, along with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to strong winds will prevail S of the Dominican Republic today as a high pressure center passing N of the area maintains a tight pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week, except for light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic through 31N48W to 19N64W. To the west, a frontal remnant trough is analyzed S of a 1024 mb high near 30N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted N of 24N between 45W and 52W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas also prevailing across the W Atlantic W of the front to the FL coast and S of the remnant trough. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of the trough due to high pressure in the region.

For areas E of 45W and N of 10N, fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail due to an enhanced pressure difference between a 1035 mb high near 36N18W and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Scatterometer data confirm strong to near gale-force NE winds prevailing N of 20N and E of 25W, with very rough seas N of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the discussion waters will shift eastward enabling a cold front to move off the SE coast of the U. S. on Monday. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida today in advance of the front. The front will shift eastward over the forecast waters, moving east of the area the middle of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. These winds will diminish by the middle of next week, with rough seas lingering E of 60W.

$$ Adams Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster