Monsoon Trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues west- southwestward to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 00N30W to 02S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 06N between 07W and 11W.

Gulf Of America

A line showers and thunderstorms continues to move across the coastal waters of the western Florida Panhandle, associated with a mid level shortwave trough in the vicinity. At the surface, a surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the northern Gulf. A trough is setting up over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Data from platforms in the northwest Gulf show areas of fog reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles. Advisories are in effect for dense fog along the coast of Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Fresh to strong winds are probably ongoing east of the trough along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft over most of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned western Atlantic ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Mon, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink into the NW and N central Gulf coastal waters late on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before lifting north and dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the basin and moderate to rough seas.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and a 1009 mb over northern Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trades over the central and northeastern sections of the basin. Strong to near gale-force winds are just north of Colombia. Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as seen in earlier scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 8 ft north of Colombia, 3 to 5 ft in the far northwest Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is presently observed.

For the forecast, the high pressure east of Bermuda will continue to interact with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will continue to impact the tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. High pressure will again relocate N of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through Fri night and bring about a significant increase in winds and seas across most of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Broad high pressure dominates the western Atlantic, anchored by 1030 mb high pressure just east of Bermuda. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. Farther east, 1010 mb low pressure is centered west of Madeira, with a trough extending from the low to 21N25W. Fresh N winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted west of the trough to 28W, and north of 23N. Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure east of Bermuda will drift slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon night. As a result, winds and seas will diminish modestly across the forecast area Mon afternoon through Mon night. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late Tue and weaken quickly across the waters off northeast Florida early Wed. High pressure will then build southward again across the region Wed night through Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly across the waters south of 24N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen