Tropical Waves

A tropical is just E of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 10W and 26W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 37W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N and between 30W and 44W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 17N into inland Venezuela, with axis near 68W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave axis in the SE Caribbean.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 77W, moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient across the area has diminished by this morning, which has resulted in moderate or weaker ESE winds across the western half of the Gulf and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds this morning and are forecast to prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers are ongoing in both the Gulf of Honduras and in the SE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to reach near gale-force speed at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E basin while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front is moving across the NE Florida offshore waters west of 70W, bringing showers and scattered tstms to the region. The Azores High extends a broad ridge elsewhere across the subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 30N. Two surface troughs intersect the ridge, one is just E of the Turks and Caicos ahead of the aforementioned front, and a second trough is near 47W, both causing scattered to isolated showers. East of 30W, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic waters, trades are moderate to fresh, and seas moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall from 31N72W to just N of Freeport by this afternoon and then transition to a surface trough by Wed morning. The trough will slowly drift WNW and dissipate Thu night offshore NE Florida and southern Georgia. Showers are forecast to continue to affect the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through midweek. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh to locally strong trades offshore Hispaniola and Puerto Rico mainly late in the afternoon into the early evening hours.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos