Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force NW winds and rough seas of 12 to 16 ft are expected over portions of the northwestern tropical Atlantic Sun evening through Mon morning, in the wake of a cold front pushing off the coast of the southeastern United States. Widespread strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas are expected from the Bahamas, northward and west of 60W through Mon morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Strong to near-gale force N winds has generated a significant area of large, long period N swell in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Seas 12 ft or greater are expected north of 10N and east of 45W through Sun morning, with 12 ft seas expanding farther west to 52W by early Mon. Seas will peak near 22 ft near the Canary Islands. The swell direction is N with 15-19 sec periods. Seas will slowly diminish from northeast to southwest early this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at: https: //wwmiws. wmo. int/index. php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07. 5N13W and extends to 05. 5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05. 5N20W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 12N east of 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A surface trough extending from the upper Florida Keys through the Florida Straits is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail over these waters. Farther west, a surface trough extends through the Campeche Bank into the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and a second trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between these features, and weak ridging to the northeast, is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern Bay, as observed on recent scatterometer data. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over the W Atlantic extends westward into north Florida tonight, and will continue to slide northeastward and into the central Atlantic through Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning. Strong N winds and quickly building seas will follow the front. This front is expected to reach the south-central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front Tue through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

A 1007 mb low prevails over northern Colombia, and weak ridging extends over much of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting widespread fresh trade winds and 7 to 8 ft seas over the central and eastern basin, as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data. Strong E winds are noted offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and seas to 10 ft are occurring west of the strongest winds. In the northwestern Caribbean, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas in E swell continue over the Atlantic waters and the passages into the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force tonight offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then will begin to stall and weaken through Wed night. High pressure will build into the W Atlantic Wed night through Thu to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on GALE WARNINGS for the western Atlantic Ocean, and a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N51W southwestward through the central Bahamas and into southeastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring north of this front as an increasing pressure gradient develops between the front and high pressure to the north. Rough seas in N to NW are noted in the central Atlantic near this feature, north of 28N and east of 68W. Widespread rough seas in E to SE swell cover much of the open Atlantic Ocean, with seas over 12 ft in N swell and strong to near-gale force winds occurring offshore of northwestern and western Africa. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for additional information. Fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail south of 25N.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters E of NE Florida, E of 79W. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States by midday Sun, followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and quickly building seas through Mon morning. Gale-force winds are expected immediately behind the front Sun evening through early Mon. The front is expected to reach from just E of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas into the Straits of Florida by Mon morning, and from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue morning. Large N swell will build in across the regional waters behind the front Sun night through Tue morning before subsiding. Elsewhere, a stationary front currently extending from the central Atlantic through the central Bahamas and across central Cuba is accompanied by active showers and thunderstorms. This boundary will lift northward tonight through Sun and gradually dissipate.

Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ADAMS