Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21. 5W, south of 16N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06. 5N to 11N between 20W and 30W. Isolated scattered convection is found from 06. 5N to 12N between the wave axis and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on tropical wave diagnostics and visible satellite imagery and is now along 59W, south of 19N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 52W and 65W.

The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the eastern Pacific. More information about this wave can be found in the Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean (TWDEP).

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16. 5W and continues southwestward to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 12N between 28W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic southwestward across the SE U. S. and the northern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for locally N to NE fresh winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche and Mexican coastal waters south of Tampico. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern Florida are moving westward and reaching the coasts between Tampa Bay and Naples.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low has tightened behind a tropical wave moving into the eastern Pacific. This pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Convection over the eastern Carribbean can be found in the Tropical Waves section above. Scattered thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough S of 11N across the coastal waters of western Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Afternoon convection over Cuba has drifted southward and is now affecting the waters south of the island as it weakens.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight through Fri night as an upper- level trough sinks across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front along about 31N, extends from 55W to a 1017 mb low pressure near 31. 5N73W, then becomes a surface trough that extends from 31N74W to Freeport, The Bahamas, northern adjacent waters. Low level convergence south of the front, and along the trough are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, and S of the front to 27. 5N between 44W and 67W. A 1033 mb high pressure system centered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N and west of 35W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 16N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, extending from a 1017 mb low near 31N73W to Freeport northern adjacent waters, will gradually dissipate tonight while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U. S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

$$ KRV Posted 12 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster