Special Feature

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. Given the abundant moisture already pooling into this area and ongoing showers and thunderstorms, this pattern will support the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through late Saturday. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance.

Tropical Waves

A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of 12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to 18. 5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week. Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week, with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night, between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America and southern Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a 1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near 35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to 25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are evident south of this ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen