Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low pressure located in the NW Gulf near 28N95. 5W will deepen as it tracks NE into Louisiana by early Sun. The associated cold front will move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing arctic high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and gales over the waters offshore Veracruz Mon and Mon night. Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin starting Sun reaching 16 or 17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the region. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 01N25W to 02N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 06N between 15W and 21W. Similar convective activity is near 06N35W.

GULF OF AMERICA,

A warm front extends from N Florida westward to a 1012 mb low pressure located near 28N95. 5W. A strong arctic cold front extends from the low center southward to inland Texas near Brownsville. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the low center and N of the warm front W of 90W. This convective activity is affecting southern Louisiana. Fresh to strong easterly winds are N of the front W of 90W based on scatterometer data with seas of 3 to 5 ft. South of the front W of 90W, moderate to fresh SE to S winds with moderate seas are W of 90W while gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas are E of 90W.

For the forecast, the low pressure will deepen as it tracks NE into Louisiana by early Sun. The associated cold front will move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Please, see the Special Features section for more information about these features.

CARIBBEAN SEA,

The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near the coast of Colombia. A surface trough is analyzed over eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This trough is generating some convective activity over eastern Cuba. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic is bringing seas of 6 to 8 ft across the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the east central Atlantic will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh speeds on Wed, and increasing back to fresh to strong on Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward toward the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN,

A cold front extends from near Bermuda westward to inland north Florida just N of Cape Canaveral, FL. A surface trough is analyzed E of the front and runs from 31N60W to just E of the NW Bahamas. Some shower activity is associated with trough. The cold front, that yesterday crossed the Canary Islands has dissipated, but lingering N swell, with seas of 12 to 16 ft persists near the Canary Islands. High pressure of 1030 mb located W of the Madeira Islands near 31N24W dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather pattern, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is noted from 10N to 25N E of 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to 23N between 30W and 50W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring from 10N to 20N W of 50W to the Lesser Antilles. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 to 9 ft just NE of the Leeward Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. A band of transverse high clouds associated with very strong southwesterly winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from NE South America all the way to W Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough and ridge will shift slowly NE through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon in advance of a strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N51W to 26N60W then stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon, becoming mostly fresh NE winds Tue night and Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal boundary. The frontal boundary will become nearly stationary from near 29N55W to 25N66W and to near 20N70W by late Thu as another strong cold front moves over the NW forecast waters.

Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster GR