Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just south of Dakar, then curves southwestward to 03N22W. An ITCZ continues westward from 03N22W across 00N33W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 28W, and near the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N between 10W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to locally strong ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the northwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will develop west of 90W tonight as a low pressure system strengthens in the central United States. By Fri, fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected across much of the Gulf, including through the Florida Straits, as the pressure gradient strengthens between the aforementioned low and building high pressure over the western Atlantic. Seas will slowly build through this weekend, with rough seas possible near the strong winds by early Sat. Looking ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish next week.

Caribbean Sea

A fair trade-wind pattern continues across the entire Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the south-central basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the lee of Cuba, and near the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft are found across the north-central and southeastern basin, including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean into early next week, including the Windward Passage and south of Cuba. Near-gale force winds are likely to pulse off Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages in the northeastern Caribbean by Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish starting Tue night as the high pressure north of the area weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N62W to 27N71W. Patchy showers are noted up to 90 nm along either side of this feature. Farther south, a surface trough reaches northeastward from near the Mona Passage to beyond 31N55W. Aided by divergent flow related to a pronounce upper- level trough near 68W, scattered moderate convection is flaring up north of 19N between 57W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found from the stationary front to 29N between 63W and 75W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas dominate north of 20N and west of 55W. A surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1032 mb high at the north-central Atlantic across 31N41W to just east of the Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds are evident north of 27N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will resume drifting southeastward later tonight through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. A tightening pressure gradient between these two features will support increasing strong NE to E winds and rough seas this weekend from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system may develop in the central Atlantic this weekend, producing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas surrounding the low, east of 65W.

Posted 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan