Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from Venice, Florida southwestward to 23N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. The front will continue to quickly move southeastward across the remainder of the basin through tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect today through this evening for off Veracruz. These winds will continue to produce rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 19 ft today off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell of 12 to 16 ft over the subtropical Atlantic north of 27N between 35W and 55W will shift eastward, and cover the waters north of 25N between 25W and 50W today, and north of 17N east of 35W Fri before gradually subsiding.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 00N30W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing from 01S to 06N between 03W to 20W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 04S to 03N between 20W and 32W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in the Gulf of America.

A strong cold front extends from Venice, Florida southwestward to 23N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. A Gale Warning remains in effect today through this evening for off Veracruz with rough to very rough seas, already peaking to around 19 ft off Veracruz. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active ahead of the cold front over the SE Gulf, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near-gale force winds follow the front elsewhere across the Gulf. Seas range from 8 to 18 ft behind the front west of 86W, with the highest wave heights off Veracruz, Mexico. Seas ahead of the front over the SE Gulf are 3 to 7 ft where winds are light to gentle.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to quickly move southeastward across the remainder of the basin through tonight. Gale force northerly winds will continue off Veracruz through this evening. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the weekend. A trough is expected to develop from the frontal remnants over the west-central and SW Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri through Sat night. Low pressure may develop along the trough on Sat near southern Texas and track NE near the rest of the Texas coast through Sun night while weakening. High pressure will settle in over the NW Gulf early next week, preceded by a surge of moderate to fresh northerly winds from the eastern Gulf to the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The broad subtropical ridge that has persisted north of the region for the last several days is weakening and shifting eastward ahead of a strong cold front moving through the Gulf of America. This is allowing trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean to diminish a bit, although strong NE to E winds and rough seas persist near the coast of northeast Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist elsewhere across the Caribbean, except for 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean outside of the Gulf of Honduras where fresh E winds are pulsing.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue over most sections of the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through tonight, then return Sat night through Mon night. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, reach the Windward Passage late Fri, stall along western Hispaniola Fri night, then gradually lift northward Sat before dissipating Sat night near the southern Bahamas. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area and will lead to the development of fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri evening through early Sun. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat, subsiding afterward.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell.

A cold front extends from 31N76W SW to Melbourne, Florida. Fresh to strong S winds and rough seas are evident ahead of the front to 63W, north of 27N. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds also follow the front with rough seas to 9 ft. S of 27N and ahead of the front, winds are from the SE to S and seas are moderate to rough in E swell. A broad ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high W of the Canary Islands and a 1023 mb high E of Bermuda covers the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters are gentle to moderate, except between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands where NE winds are fresh to strong with seas to 12 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic, trades are mainly fresh and seas are rough to 10 ft pprimarily in NW swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds will continue to affect the offshore waters N of 27N through Fri, ahead and behind the cold front. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba early Fri, from near 31N57W to the Windward Passage Fri evening, from 28N55W to western Hispaniola Fri night into Sat where it will stall and then gradually lift northward Sat before dissipating Sat night near the southern Bahamas. Strong high pressure will build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight gradient will bring fresh to strong northeast winds south of 25N, including the Florida Straits and the Great Bahama Bank, Fri night into Sat night. Conditions begin to improve beginning Sun morning as a second but weaker cold front moves across the NW offshore waters, reaching from near 31N71W to 29N74W Mon night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos