Ahead of the 94th Academy Awards this week, Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with much still up in the air.
BEST PICTURE
Recommended Videos
The Nominees: āBelfastā; āCODAā; āDonāt Look Upā; āDrive My Carā; āDuneā; āKing Richardā; āLicorice Pizzaā; āNightmare Alleyā; āThe Power of the Dogā; āWest Side Story.ā
BAHR: At this point it really feels like the award will go to āThe Power of the Dog." It is paradoxically both a safe choice and a game changer in that it would be a first best picture win for Netflix after years of trying. Jane Campionās last major shot at picture (and director) was with āThe Piano,ā but in 1994 that basically stood no chance against āSchindlerās List.ā This time, itās her film that has the leg up on the Spielberg. And yet there is a possibility that āCODAā could āLittle Miss Sunshineā/āGreen Bookā its way in there as the feel-good alternative ā which was what āBelfastā was supposed to be. (Since this article was first published, the chances for āCODAā improved after winning the top honor at the Producers Guild this weekend.)
COYLE: I'm calling the āCODAā upset. The smart money is on Campion's film. But the win for āCODAā at the Screen Actors Guild ā where āThe Power of the Dogā failed to get nominated for best ensemble ā suggests strong passion for the film, and maybe a crowd-pleasing advantage on the academy's preferential ballot. Either film, though, will symbolize the ascent of streaming in Hollywood. It would hand a streaming service ā Netflix or Apple ā Hollywood's most prestigious honor for the first time. Maybe that's a big deal, maybe it's belated confirmation of what everyone has known for some time.
BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessica Chastain, āThe Eyes of Tammy Fayeā; Olivia Colman, āThe Lost Daughterā; PenĆ©lope Cruz, āParallel Mothersā; Nicole Kidman, āBeing the Ricardosā; Kristen Stewart, āSpencer.ā
COYLE: This has been the cruelest of categories, laying waste to most expectations and some very sensational performances. Lady Gaga, CaitrĆona Balfe, Jennifer Hudson and my favorite performance of the year ā Renate Reinsve (āThe Worst Person in the Worldā) ā are just some of the masses among the snubbed. Yet, surprisingly, a very Oscar bait-y performance from a movie released early in the season ā Jessica Chastain as the televangelist Tammy Faye ā has moved to favorite status after winning the SAG Awards. That may partly be because Chastain, a three-time nominee but never a winner, is one of Hollywoodās best actors and the time has come to honor her, for a film she steered into existence. I think sheāll win, but Olivia Colman ā typically brilliant in āThe Lost Daughterā ā could sneak in for her second Academy Award.
BAHR: Chastain should have already won several Oscars at this point, and not even necessarily for the ones she got nominations for (āThe Helpā and āZero Dark Thirtyā). However improbable for a movie that has some big issues, including the way it turns a blind eye to Tammy Fayeās complicities in the scam, the tide has shifted in her favor and sheāll probably get her win. Still, I still think thereās a small possibility that it will go to Kristen Stewart, who has been on a rollercoaster path after starting the season at the top.
BEST ACTOR
The Nominees: Javier Bardem, āBeing the Ricardosā; Benedict Cumberbatch, āThe Power of the Dogā; Andrew Garfield, ātick, tick ā¦ Boom!ā; Denzel Washington, āThe Tragedy of Macbethā; Will Smith, āKing Richard.
BAHR: Itās always a bit of a snooze when categories are locked for months, but it would be a major surprise if Will Smith didnāt get his first Oscar win for āKing Richard.ā After a period of giving some possibly TMI interviews, Smith stepped back from the spotlight, let the race play out and still emerged triumphant. Not only did he give a terrific performance in the film, but his SAG speech, in which he was funny, humble and gracious to his co-star Aunjanue Ellis and subjects Venus and Serena Williams, was also a helpful reminder of the power of his star charisma. This is such a safe, respectable batch, though. It may have been fun to add some Simon Rex (for āRed Rocketā) chaos to the mix.
COYLE: Smith will over-share his way to the Oscar, a deserved win for one of the movies' most insanely charming stars. Smith might have already won best actor (for āAliā) if not for Denzel's titanic performance that year in āTraining Day.ā This time, it's Smith's turn. If I could add someone here, it'd be Adam Driver in āAnnette." If he can't have best actor, then he should surely take the award for most devastating and fiercely committed singing performance opposite a puppet baby. Wait, I'm being told that isn't an Oscar category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Jessie Buckley, āThe Lost Daughterā; Ariana DeBose, āWest Side Storyā; Judi Dench, āBelfastā; Kirsten Dunst, āThe Power of the Dogā; Aunjanue Ellis, āKing Richard.ā
COYLE: Thanks to her show-stopping, breakthrough performance in āWest Side Storyā DeBose has had this category locked down all season, and itās hard not to be moved by the historical symmetry. Sixty years ago, Rita Moreno won for the same role, Anita, in 1961ās āWest Side Story," making her the first Latina to win an Oscar. Weāll have to see if DeBose is as brief as Moreno was accepting her award. (Her total speech: āI canāt believe it! Good Lord! I leave you with that.ā) Still, it was a crime to neglect Kathryn Hunter's multiplying witches in āMacbeth." What's foul isn't always fair.
BAHR: I was prepared for Kirsten Dunst to finally get her moment up on that podium but Kikiās shrimp will have to wait. At least she broke the seal and got a nomination. And DeBose should definitely be ready with a killer speech. Do you think sheāll take Moreno as her date? Maybe sheāll don the black and gold dress Moreno wore in 1962 and famously repeated in 2018.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: CiarĆ”n Hinds, āBelfastā; Troy Kotsur, āCODAā; Jesse Plemons, āThe Power of the Dogā; J.K. Simmons, āBeing the Ricardosā; Kodi Smit-McPhee, āThe Power of the Dog.ā
BAHR: Among mostly first-time nominees (save for J.K. Simmons, who previously won for āWhiplashā), āCODAāsā Troy Kotsur went from breakthrough to frontrunner over the past couple months, winning at SAG, BAFTAs and Critics Choice and heās likely to continue that streak come Oscar Sunday. The support for Kotsur and āCODAā has only become more enthusiastic recently and it would be a history-making win. The 53-year-old is the first deaf man to have ever been nominated for an acting prize. Iād also liked to have seen Colman Domingo get some more widespread praise for āZola,ā or Mike Faist for āWest Side Story.ā
COYLE: It's a very likeable group of performers but Kotsur has this one in the bag. I think it will be one of the night's best moments, not just because of the historic nature of Kotsur's win, but because it's just reward for an actor who has long toiled and thrived on Los Angeles stages. Hinds was, though, fabulous in āBelfastā and the unnominated Richard Jenkins in āThe Humansā was also about as good as it gets.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, āBelfastā; RyĆ»suke Hamaguchi, āDrive My Carā; Paul Thomas Anderson, āLicorice Pizzaā; Jane Campion, āThe Power of the Dogā; Steven Spielberg, āWest Side Story.ā
COYLE: Campion has long been the frontrunner. For the trailblazing filmmaker, who nearly three decades ago became only the second woman nominated in this category, itās a coronation long in coming. Campion, the first woman ever to be twice nominated for best director, will win, and her cinematographer, Ari Wegner, will become the first woman to win that award ā a triumph that should have happened long ago for women behind the camera.
BAHR: Yes, but will she thank Sam Elliott?
DOCUMENTARY
The Nominees: āAscensionā; āAtticaā; āFleeā; āSummer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)ā; āWriting With Fire.ā
BAHR: Though Questlove is much-beloved by the Academy and his documentary āSummer of Soul,ā which won at the BAFTAs, would be more than deserving, āFleeā likely has the advantage here since it was also nominated in the animated feature category. Also, while āAtticaā director Stanley Nelson won the Directors Guild award, that group is narrower than the Academyās voting body.
COYLE: To quote the Roots, Questlove's Oscar has āgot to be, got to be reality.ā Don't get me wrong, āFleeā is a singularly exquisite film, and this could indeed be close. But āSummer of Soulā might be the most universally adored film of the year. Both its uncovering of a lost Black history and its celebration of live performance were so profoundly suited to 2021. I can't see it not winning.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Nominees: āDrive My Car,ā Japan; āFlee,ā Denmark; āThe Hand of God,ā Italy; āLunana: A Yak in the Classroom,ā Bhutan; āThe Worst Person in the World,ā Norway.
COYLE: RyĆ»suke Hamaguchiās āDrive My Car" is a not-crazy best-picture underdog, which makes it a heavyweight in this category. There's stiff competition here ā particularly from Joachim Trier's supremely lovely āThe Worst Person in the World.ā But Hamaguchi's three-hour masterwork ā a profound movie about art and dialogue as a means of human connection ā should win.
BAHR: āDrive My Carā definitely has the advantage. The picture and director nominations probably helped convince a few more voting members to give it a chance, too. It's hard not to wonder just how far it could have gone had it had the awards campaign budgets of some of its best picture brethren.
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: āEncantoā; āFleeā; āLucaā; āThe Mitchells vs. the Machinesā; āRaya and the Last Dragon.ā
BAHR: āEncantoā is certainly the juggernaut in this category, with the triple threat of Disney, Lin-Manuel Miranda and a massive hit song that we wonāt talk about here (no, no, no). And under normal circumstances itād be the easy frontrunner, but Disney has not had a good few weeks not to mention the fact that the studio has three nominations in the category which could split votes. Plus, there is massive industry goodwill for āThe Mitchells vs the Machinesā and it won the Annie award, which is why I think there may be a (good) upset in store.
COYLE: I think āThe Mitchells vs the Machinesā pulls it off. āEncantoā may be the favorite, but it's a funny kind of juggernaut. The Disney release didn't make a huge impression in theaters but once it hit streaming, its songs turned it into a sensation. Some voters may feel āEncantoā is great for the music, while āThe Mitchells vs the Machinesā is the better movie overall. I think so, anyway. So come on, academy. Do it for Monchi the pug.
___
This story, originally published on March 17, has been updated to add the results from the Producers Guild Awards on March 20.
___
Follow AP Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/ldbahr and http://twitter.com/jakecoyleAP
___
For more on this yearās Oscars, visit: https://apnews.com/hub/academy-awards