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Oscar predictions: Will 'Power of the Dog' reign supreme?

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This combination of photos shows promotional art for the films nominated for an Oscar for best picture, top row from left, "Belfast," "CODA," Don't Look Up," Drive My Car," Dune," bottom row from left, "King Richard," Licorice Pizza," "Nightmare Alley," "The Power of the Dog," and "West Side Story." (Focus Features/Apple TV+, Netflix, Janus Films & Sideshow, Warner Bros. Pictures, Warner Bros. Pictures, Searchlight Pictures, Netflix, 20th Century Films via AP)

Ahead of the 94th Academy Awards this week, Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with much still up in the air.

BEST PICTURE

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The Nominees: ā€œBelfastā€; ā€œCODAā€; ā€œDonā€™t Look Upā€; ā€œDrive My Carā€; ā€œDuneā€; ā€œKing Richardā€; ā€œLicorice Pizzaā€; ā€œNightmare Alleyā€; ā€œThe Power of the Dogā€; ā€œWest Side Story.ā€

BAHR: At this point it really feels like the award will go to ā€œThe Power of the Dog." It is paradoxically both a safe choice and a game changer in that it would be a first best picture win for Netflix after years of trying. Jane Campionā€™s last major shot at picture (and director) was with ā€œThe Piano,ā€ but in 1994 that basically stood no chance against ā€œSchindlerā€™s List.ā€ This time, itā€™s her film that has the leg up on the Spielberg. And yet there is a possibility that ā€œCODAā€ could ā€œLittle Miss Sunshineā€/ā€Green Bookā€ its way in there as the feel-good alternative ā€” which was what ā€œBelfastā€ was supposed to be. (Since this article was first published, the chances for ā€œCODAā€ improved after winning the top honor at the Producers Guild this weekend.)

COYLE: I'm calling the ā€œCODAā€ upset. The smart money is on Campion's film. But the win for ā€œCODAā€ at the Screen Actors Guild ā€” where ā€œThe Power of the Dogā€ failed to get nominated for best ensemble ā€” suggests strong passion for the film, and maybe a crowd-pleasing advantage on the academy's preferential ballot. Either film, though, will symbolize the ascent of streaming in Hollywood. It would hand a streaming service ā€” Netflix or Apple ā€” Hollywood's most prestigious honor for the first time. Maybe that's a big deal, maybe it's belated confirmation of what everyone has known for some time.

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees: Jessica Chastain, ā€œThe Eyes of Tammy Fayeā€; Olivia Colman, ā€œThe Lost Daughterā€; PenĆ©lope Cruz, ā€œParallel Mothersā€; Nicole Kidman, ā€œBeing the Ricardosā€; Kristen Stewart, ā€œSpencer.ā€

COYLE: This has been the cruelest of categories, laying waste to most expectations and some very sensational performances. Lady Gaga, CaitrĆ­ona Balfe, Jennifer Hudson and my favorite performance of the year ā€” Renate Reinsve (ā€œThe Worst Person in the Worldā€) ā€” are just some of the masses among the snubbed. Yet, surprisingly, a very Oscar bait-y performance from a movie released early in the season ā€” Jessica Chastain as the televangelist Tammy Faye ā€” has moved to favorite status after winning the SAG Awards. That may partly be because Chastain, a three-time nominee but never a winner, is one of Hollywoodā€™s best actors and the time has come to honor her, for a film she steered into existence. I think sheā€™ll win, but Olivia Colman ā€” typically brilliant in ā€œThe Lost Daughterā€ ā€” could sneak in for her second Academy Award.

BAHR: Chastain should have already won several Oscars at this point, and not even necessarily for the ones she got nominations for (ā€œThe Helpā€ and ā€œZero Dark Thirtyā€). However improbable for a movie that has some big issues, including the way it turns a blind eye to Tammy Fayeā€™s complicities in the scam, the tide has shifted in her favor and sheā€™ll probably get her win. Still, I still think thereā€™s a small possibility that it will go to Kristen Stewart, who has been on a rollercoaster path after starting the season at the top.

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees: Javier Bardem, ā€œBeing the Ricardosā€; Benedict Cumberbatch, ā€œThe Power of the Dogā€; Andrew Garfield, ā€œtick, tick ā€¦ Boom!ā€; Denzel Washington, ā€œThe Tragedy of Macbethā€; Will Smith, ā€œKing Richard.

BAHR: Itā€™s always a bit of a snooze when categories are locked for months, but it would be a major surprise if Will Smith didnā€™t get his first Oscar win for ā€œKing Richard.ā€ After a period of giving some possibly TMI interviews, Smith stepped back from the spotlight, let the race play out and still emerged triumphant. Not only did he give a terrific performance in the film, but his SAG speech, in which he was funny, humble and gracious to his co-star Aunjanue Ellis and subjects Venus and Serena Williams, was also a helpful reminder of the power of his star charisma. This is such a safe, respectable batch, though. It may have been fun to add some Simon Rex (for ā€œRed Rocketā€) chaos to the mix.

COYLE: Smith will over-share his way to the Oscar, a deserved win for one of the movies' most insanely charming stars. Smith might have already won best actor (for ā€œAliā€) if not for Denzel's titanic performance that year in ā€œTraining Day.ā€ This time, it's Smith's turn. If I could add someone here, it'd be Adam Driver in ā€œAnnette." If he can't have best actor, then he should surely take the award for most devastating and fiercely committed singing performance opposite a puppet baby. Wait, I'm being told that isn't an Oscar category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees: Jessie Buckley, ā€œThe Lost Daughterā€; Ariana DeBose, ā€œWest Side Storyā€; Judi Dench, ā€œBelfastā€; Kirsten Dunst, ā€œThe Power of the Dogā€; Aunjanue Ellis, ā€œKing Richard.ā€

COYLE: Thanks to her show-stopping, breakthrough performance in ā€œWest Side Storyā€ DeBose has had this category locked down all season, and itā€™s hard not to be moved by the historical symmetry. Sixty years ago, Rita Moreno won for the same role, Anita, in 1961ā€™s ā€œWest Side Story," making her the first Latina to win an Oscar. Weā€™ll have to see if DeBose is as brief as Moreno was accepting her award. (Her total speech: ā€œI canā€™t believe it! Good Lord! I leave you with that.ā€) Still, it was a crime to neglect Kathryn Hunter's multiplying witches in ā€œMacbeth." What's foul isn't always fair.

BAHR: I was prepared for Kirsten Dunst to finally get her moment up on that podium but Kikiā€™s shrimp will have to wait. At least she broke the seal and got a nomination. And DeBose should definitely be ready with a killer speech. Do you think sheā€™ll take Moreno as her date? Maybe sheā€™ll don the black and gold dress Moreno wore in 1962 and famously repeated in 2018.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees: CiarĆ”n Hinds, ā€œBelfastā€; Troy Kotsur, ā€œCODAā€; Jesse Plemons, ā€œThe Power of the Dogā€; J.K. Simmons, ā€œBeing the Ricardosā€; Kodi Smit-McPhee, ā€œThe Power of the Dog.ā€

BAHR: Among mostly first-time nominees (save for J.K. Simmons, who previously won for ā€œWhiplashā€), ā€œCODAā€™sā€ Troy Kotsur went from breakthrough to frontrunner over the past couple months, winning at SAG, BAFTAs and Critics Choice and heā€™s likely to continue that streak come Oscar Sunday. The support for Kotsur and ā€œCODAā€ has only become more enthusiastic recently and it would be a history-making win. The 53-year-old is the first deaf man to have ever been nominated for an acting prize. Iā€™d also liked to have seen Colman Domingo get some more widespread praise for ā€œZola,ā€ or Mike Faist for ā€œWest Side Story.ā€

COYLE: It's a very likeable group of performers but Kotsur has this one in the bag. I think it will be one of the night's best moments, not just because of the historic nature of Kotsur's win, but because it's just reward for an actor who has long toiled and thrived on Los Angeles stages. Hinds was, though, fabulous in ā€œBelfastā€ and the unnominated Richard Jenkins in ā€œThe Humansā€ was also about as good as it gets.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, ā€œBelfastā€; RyĆ»suke Hamaguchi, ā€œDrive My Carā€; Paul Thomas Anderson, ā€œLicorice Pizzaā€; Jane Campion, ā€œThe Power of the Dogā€; Steven Spielberg, ā€œWest Side Story.ā€

COYLE: Campion has long been the frontrunner. For the trailblazing filmmaker, who nearly three decades ago became only the second woman nominated in this category, itā€™s a coronation long in coming. Campion, the first woman ever to be twice nominated for best director, will win, and her cinematographer, Ari Wegner, will become the first woman to win that award ā€” a triumph that should have happened long ago for women behind the camera.

BAHR: Yes, but will she thank Sam Elliott?

DOCUMENTARY

The Nominees: ā€œAscensionā€; ā€œAtticaā€; ā€œFleeā€; ā€œSummer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)ā€; ā€œWriting With Fire.ā€

BAHR: Though Questlove is much-beloved by the Academy and his documentary ā€œSummer of Soul,ā€ which won at the BAFTAs, would be more than deserving, ā€œFleeā€ likely has the advantage here since it was also nominated in the animated feature category. Also, while ā€œAtticaā€ director Stanley Nelson won the Directors Guild award, that group is narrower than the Academyā€™s voting body.

COYLE: To quote the Roots, Questlove's Oscar has ā€œgot to be, got to be reality.ā€ Don't get me wrong, ā€œFleeā€ is a singularly exquisite film, and this could indeed be close. But ā€œSummer of Soulā€ might be the most universally adored film of the year. Both its uncovering of a lost Black history and its celebration of live performance were so profoundly suited to 2021. I can't see it not winning.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

The Nominees: ā€œDrive My Car,ā€ Japan; ā€œFlee,ā€ Denmark; ā€œThe Hand of God,ā€ Italy; ā€œLunana: A Yak in the Classroom,ā€ Bhutan; ā€œThe Worst Person in the World,ā€ Norway.

COYLE: RyĆ»suke Hamaguchiā€™s ā€œDrive My Car" is a not-crazy best-picture underdog, which makes it a heavyweight in this category. There's stiff competition here ā€” particularly from Joachim Trier's supremely lovely ā€œThe Worst Person in the World.ā€ But Hamaguchi's three-hour masterwork ā€” a profound movie about art and dialogue as a means of human connection ā€” should win.

BAHR: ā€œDrive My Carā€ definitely has the advantage. The picture and director nominations probably helped convince a few more voting members to give it a chance, too. It's hard not to wonder just how far it could have gone had it had the awards campaign budgets of some of its best picture brethren.

ANIMATED FEATURE

The Nominees: ā€œEncantoā€; ā€œFleeā€; ā€œLucaā€; ā€œThe Mitchells vs. the Machinesā€; ā€œRaya and the Last Dragon.ā€

BAHR: ā€œEncantoā€ is certainly the juggernaut in this category, with the triple threat of Disney, Lin-Manuel Miranda and a massive hit song that we wonā€™t talk about here (no, no, no). And under normal circumstances itā€™d be the easy frontrunner, but Disney has not had a good few weeks not to mention the fact that the studio has three nominations in the category which could split votes. Plus, there is massive industry goodwill for ā€œThe Mitchells vs the Machinesā€ and it won the Annie award, which is why I think there may be a (good) upset in store.

COYLE: I think ā€œThe Mitchells vs the Machinesā€ pulls it off. ā€œEncantoā€ may be the favorite, but it's a funny kind of juggernaut. The Disney release didn't make a huge impression in theaters but once it hit streaming, its songs turned it into a sensation. Some voters may feel ā€œEncantoā€ is great for the music, while ā€œThe Mitchells vs the Machinesā€ is the better movie overall. I think so, anyway. So come on, academy. Do it for Monchi the pug.

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This story, originally published on March 17, has been updated to add the results from the Producers Guild Awards on March 20.

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Follow AP Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/ldbahr and http://twitter.com/jakecoyleAP

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For more on this yearā€™s Oscars, visit: https://apnews.com/hub/academy-awards


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