Florida
South Florida
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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 1 week ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough extends from Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 02N35W to 00N50W. No significant convection is noted at this time.
Gulf Of Mexico
Weak high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf and continues to dominate the basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are across the western half of the basin noted in recent scatterometer data. Combined seas in this area are 3 to 6 ft. The high pressure is supporting generally calm to light breezes across the eastern Gulf, where seas are 1 to 3 ft. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the coastal waters off the Sabine Pass in the northwest Gulf.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will tighten, and fresh to strong pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf will develop later tonight through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough.
Caribbean Sea
Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, and fresh winds funneling off the coast of Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola. These winds are active between weak high pressure centered north of the area near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 3 ft or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Hispaniola and the Windward Passage ahead of an upper trough. The trough will continue to support persistent heavy rainfall and thunderstorms through the week in this region which may increase the chance of flash flooding in low lying areas.
For the forecast, the ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken on Thu, reducing the areal coverage and limiting these winds to the SE Caribbean by Thu evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently affecting eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and adjacent passages will expand in coverage tonight into Thu supported by a surface trough extending along 78W. The pressure gradient between this feature and a weak ridge will also support moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee Cuba, NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage Thu night into Sat night. Gentle to moderate trades are expected basin-wide the remainder forecast period, except for fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean
Broad high pressure centered near Bermuda dominates the western Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E winds south of the high pressure along the north coast of Hispaniola and near the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate E to SE winds are evident elsewhere south of 25N and west of 55W. Recent altimeter and buoy data show combined seas of 5 to 7 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are noted closer into the ridge, north of 25N and west of 55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the southern Bahamas and offshore Hispaniola, ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west.
A weak cold front is analyzed farther east from 31N42W to 26N50W. Winds ahead of this front have diminished to moderate speeds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft continue behind the front. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft are ahead of the front, north of 28N and west of 35W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic south of 20N and east of 30W. As well as north of 20N and east of east of 25W, to the south of strong high pressure centered east of the Azores.
For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure near Bermuda is expected to slide eastward and weaken on Thu, while a surface trough develops just N of Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough will support pulsing strong E-SE winds E of the trough and moderate to fresh NE-E winds W of the trough. The trough will also amplify the area of showers and tstms currently affecting the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. The trough is forecast to become a weak low, which will track NE Fri through Sat, and open back into a trough while exiting the area Sat afternoon.
Posted 1 hour, 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mora
