It’s been a nice dry spell these past few weeks in the Atlantic – dry being the operative word with round after round of storm-suffocating dust that’s helped put the lid on tropical development. The last named storm to form was Tropical Storm Chris 25 days ago and Beryl bid us goodbye 16 days ago. Since then, we’ve had a blank Atlantic canvas, and the post-Beryl slump will continue into a third consecutive weekend.
Watching incoming disturbances a little more closely starting later next week
As we detailed in newsletters earlier this week, the Atlantic will remain in an unfavorable configuration for development for about another week or so. By late next week, we’ll begin to see a shift in the large-scale environment that will encourage stormier conditions for August.
This means dry disturbances – ripples in the winds at 5,000 or 10,000 feet known as tropical waves that aren’t immediately obvious because of a scarcity of thunderstorms – may need to be watched a little more closely as the calendar turns and they move into a less hostile environment.
One such disturbance will be tracking near the islands for mid- to late next week.
Our models are mostly ho-hum about development for now, with only the European showing weak development chances, and interaction with land will be an impediment. It’ll be entering the western Atlantic right around the time things transition, so the atmosphere will be marginal at best.
Nevertheless, we’ll follow its progress just in case it finds a window to do something squirrely deeper into next week.
For now, enjoy a quiet weekend but be sure to check back in a little more often once August rolls around.