Heat free agency guide: Is Riley going whale watching?

Clay Ferraro's take on the upcoming offseason moves

MIAMI – It took less than an hour after the NBA Draft ended for Pat Riley to start fielding free agency questions. The Heat President made it clear they have more than one plan once free agency opens at 12:01 on July 1st.

He just didn't make it clear how many plans they have.

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"We have a Plan A and a Plan B. There's no D, E, F or G," Riley said.

Riley may have accidentally left out the small detail of a Plan C, but you can be sure Riley, Erik Spoelstra and salary cap architect Andy Elisburg will spare no detail as they construct the 2017-18 roster.

We'll get into who may be the "Plan As" and "Plan Bs" later, but let's first look at the players we expect to be on Riley's radar.

1. Gordon Hayward

Hayward is Riley's "whale" this offseason. He may not be the 200-ton Blue whale that Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry will be, but they're not leaving Golden State and a 100-ton Bowhead whale like Hayward would certainly be a great catch.

(Yes, I had to google "species of whale by size." Don't think less of me, please).

Hayward is the best free agent who will actually be available. He is not "elite" at any one skill, but he's very good at virtually everything. At 27 years old, he's an ascending player just entering his prime and his efficiency rating (PER) in 2017 was higher than any season Paul George has ever had. He would also give the Heat what they were sorely lacking in 2017: A player who, when the shot clock or game clock is winding down, can actually get his own shot and scare the daylights out of the opponent.

Rumors linking Hayward to Miami started back in March in the New York Daily News continued recently with ESPN's Marc Stein and Zach Lowe and even Bleacher Report has predicted Hayward will sign with the Heat.

Suffice it to say, there's a ton of smoke. With that said, the Heat aren't the only ones Hot for Hayward. He's also been linked to the Celtics and his current team, the Jazz. There are also plenty of reasons for Hayward to re-sign with Utah (good young core, familiarity, and they can offer him an extra year and slightly more money per year). There would also be a couple very good reasons for him to sign in Boston (his college coach, Brad Stevens and a core that already finished with the top seed in the east).

With the NBA's current new CBA giving star players significant financial incentives to stay with their current teams, Hayward may present Riley with his last, best shot at bringing in a very good, ascending player in free agency. Riley himself has said that the rules have made it virtually impossible. However, a loophole in the rule that limits how much a player can make if they do not make an All-NBA team lowered the financial advantages Utah could have presented Hayward. That may be all Riley needs to get his whale.

2. Blake Griffin

If you told Heat fans 3 years ago they'd have a legit shot at Griffin, they've be doing flips. Griffin is still a very good player, but injuries have taken away almost  half of his last two seasons. At one time, Griffin was the most explosive big man in the NBA and one of the most explosive 6-10-plus players in NBA history. He's still explosive when healthy, but players typically don't get more explosive as they get older and very rarely do they get healthier.

The other issue with Griffin is the question of "game fit" with Hassan Whiteside. He doesn't space the floor like Hayward does, and it's tough to say if his game would fit in the free-flowing offense the Heat displayed during their winning streak and succesful second half of 2017.

Griffin, like Hayward, will get the max from someone. It's just hard to envision the Heat paying that kind of money.

3. Paul Millsap

Millsap is coming off the best scoring year of his career and would also provide the Heat with someone who can get to the free throw line when the play breaks down. With that said, it's hard to envision Miami paying max money someone who will turn 33-years-old during the season. Someone else will, though.

4. James Johnson

Johnson is the perfect example of how "Heat Culture" can elevate careers. Johnson's signing in Miami met with little fanfare last offseason. But in a year with the Heat coaching and training staff, he transformed his body and his game. By the end of the year, Johnson became the Heat's go-to player in crunch time and had put himself in prime position for a major free agent contract.

Johnson has also expressed a strong desire to stay with Miami. He has been quite vocal about his willingness to take less money to stay in Miami because it's "home."

But how much less? And how much are the Heat willing to pay? If the Heat cannot sign a max player, you can bet that Johnson is their first call. But would Johnson take enough of a paycut to play with, say, Hayward?

Johnson is 31, the same age that Luol Deng was when he signed a 4-year, $72-million contract with the Lakers last offseason. While Johnson is clearly grateful to the Heat for elevating his career, he's also never signed a true "big money" contract by NBA standards and, at 31, this will likely be his only shot.

The Heat would certainly love to have him back. But if another team blows Johnson out of the water with a big offer, it would be very tough to turn down.

5. Dion Waiters

It's not a coincidence that once Waiters got going, the Heat's 2017 season took off. It's also not a coincidence that once Waiters got hurt, the Heat could never recover.

Waiters became a Heat fan favorite with his clutch shots and "irrational confidence," in the words of Erik Spoelstra. Waiters was the 4th overall pick in 2012, but this season in Miami was the first time since his rookie season that he came close to living up to the lofty expectations many had for him coming out of Syracuse.

Waiters' free agency case is an interesting one: will teams value him as a 25-year old who is showing flashes of brilliance as he enters the prime of his career? Or will they see him as a one-year wonder who benefited from the "Heat culture" in a contract year?

The Heat love Waiters and, if it's the latter, you can bet they'll be perfectly happy to bring him back. But if another team is willing to pay him as a 25-year old rising star with superstar potential, Miami may not be willing or able to match.

6. Danilo Gallinari

Gallinari is an ideal "stretch 4" who gave the Heat fits in a Denver win at American Airlines Arena late in the season. He would actually be the perfect compliment to the core Heat team that went 30-11 in the second half of the season. In fact, it would've been interesting to see if Gallinari, Johnson and Waiters would've gotten together and agreed to take slightly less to see if they could put together a legitimate challenger for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Unfortunately, when it was reported last week that the NBA salary cap would drop to $99 Million, it became virtually impossible for the Heat to bring in all 3. It's also hard to envision the Heat valuing Gallinari over someone like Johnson with whom they have already built a relationship. 


About the Author

Clay Ferraro joined the Local 10 News team in 2014 to take his dream job: covering big-time sports at a first-class station in paradise. 

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